Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Quarterback Props and Passing Yard Bets

Best Super Bowl QB Props for Conference Championship Sunday

NFC Championship: Rams at Seahawks

Best Bet #1: Matthew Stafford Over 251.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

Matthew Stafford has hit the Passing Yards Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+4.10 units, 19% ROI) and threw for 457 yards at Lumen Field in Week 16, exploiting Seattle's middle-of-the-pack pass defense (13th in passing yards allowed, 205.3 YPG).

Why Stafford crushes Over 251.5:

• Over in 12 of last 19 games (+4.10 units, 19% ROI)
• 457 yards at Lumen Field in Week 16
• MVP credentials (46 TDs, 4,707 yards, 110.8 passer rating)
• Rams' pass-heavy identity (37.5 pass attempts per game)
• 251.5 line is 36 yards below 287.4 YPG average vs. Seattle

Key Matchup Edge: In playoff games where Stafford faces a top-10 scoring defense (Seattle: 2nd, 15.7 PPG allowed), he averages 278.4 passing yards - 26.9 yards above his prop line. His Week 11 performance (185 yards, 4 INTs) represents a statistical outlier unlikely to repeat.

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on Matthew Stafford Over 251.5 Passing Yards at -115 (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)
• Consider a 2-leg correlated parlay: Stafford Over 251.5 + Puka Nacua Over 92.5 Receiving Yards at +245 odds

Projected Line: Stafford 298 yards, 2 TDs - Crushes the Over

Shurzy Tip: When an MVP QB averages 287 yards against a defense but the line is 251.5, you don't need advanced analytics. You just bet Over.

Best Bet #2: Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-109)

Confidence: High (4 units)

Sam Darnold has thrown for 60 touchdowns over the last two seasons and recorded 2 passing TDs in the Week 16 overtime thriller vs. the Rams at Lumen Field. Los Angeles' secondary has battled injuries down the stretch and has allowed at least 2 touchdown passes in 6 of its last 8 games, creating a structural Over bias for Darnold's passing TD prop.

Why Darnold goes Over 1.5 TDs:

• 60 TDs over last 2 seasons (elite volume)
• 2 passing TDs vs. Rams in Week 16 at Lumen Field
• Rams allowed 2+ TDs in 6 of last 8 games
• 110.9 playoff passer rating (highest among remaining QBs)
• Playoff intensity and Super Bowl berth force aggressive passing

Key Edge: At -109 odds (implied probability: 52.2%), Darnold needs to hit 2+ passing TDs in just 1 of 2 games to break even. His recent history vs. LAR (2 TDs in Week 16) suggests a true 60-65% probability.

Betting Action:

• Place 3-4 units on Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing TDs at -109 (DraftKings)

Projected Line: Darnold 2 passing TDs, 241 yards - Hits the Over

AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos

Best Bet #3: Drake Maye Under 223.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

Drake Maye has gone Under his passing yards line in 2 of his last 4 games, including both home playoff games at Foxborough (141 yards vs. Chargers, 223 yards vs. Texans). Against Denver's #2-ranked scoring defense (18.3 PPG allowed) and 68-sack pass rush (1st in NFL), Maye faces the most hostile environment of his young career.

Why Maye stays Under 223.5:

• Under in 2 of last 4 games (141 yards vs. Chargers, 223 vs. Texans)
• 188.8 YPG average in playoffs (35 yards below prop line)
• Denver's #2 scoring defense (18.3 PPG) and 68 sacks (1st in NFL)
• Patriots' conservative game script prioritizes Henderson's rush attack
• Rookie QBs at altitude average 204.6 passing yards (18.9 below prop)

Key Matchup Edge: The Patriots' conservative game script will prioritize TreVeyon Henderson's rushing attack (12.9 projected carries) to neutralize Denver's pass rush and control the clock. Maye's 223.5-yard line represents a significant increase from his 188.8 YPG playoff average.

The 49ers vs. Eagles Wild Card game showed similar QB Under value when rookie passers face elite road defenses.

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on Drake Maye Under 223.5 Passing Yards at -111 (DraftKings)

Projected Line: Maye 207 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT - Hits the Under

Shurzy Tip: Rookie QB + altitude + elite pass rush = automatic Under lean. The Patriots aren't asking Maye to throw 35 times at Mile High. They're asking him to manage the game and not lose it.

Best Bet #4: Jarrett Stidham Over 198.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

Jarrett Stidham's 198.5-yard line represents a 13-point increase from the opening 185.5, signaling sharp money on the Over as oddsmakers recognize his ability to exploit New England's bottom-8 pass defense (ranked 23rd in DVOA).

Why Stidham goes Over 198.5:

• 198.5 line is 13 points higher than opening 185.5 (sharp money signal)
• 270 passing yards average in 4 career starts (219, 365, 224, 272 yards)
• Patriots' 23rd-ranked pass defense (DVOA) creates structural advantage
• Stidham's familiarity with Patriots' defensive concepts from 2019-2021
• Denver's dink-and-dunk system minimizes INT risk while maintaining yardage

Historical Context: Since 1950, 35 QBs with fewer than 200 career pass attempts have made their NFL playoff debut, averaging 172.9 passing yards - but the 9 winners averaged 246.3 yards, suggesting that winning backup QBs significantly exceed baseline projections.

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on Jarrett Stidham Over 198.5 Passing Yards at -115 (FanDuel, BetMGM)
• Consider a 3-leg correlated parlay: Stidham Over 198.5 + Over 19.5 Completions + Over 0.5 Passing TDs at +361 odds

Projected Line: Stidham 237 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT - Crushes the Over

Shurzy Tip: When a line moves 13 points upward despite a backup QB starting, that's sharp money recognizing value. The market knows something. Follow it.

Advanced NFL Quarterback Bets Strategy: Reading Game Script & Matchups

Passing Yards: Volume vs. Efficiency

Sharp bettors prioritize volume indicators (pass attempts, trailing game script) over efficiency (yards per attempt) when betting passing yards props.

High-Volume Scenarios:

• Trailing game script: If Rams trail Seattle by 10+ points, expect 40+ pass attempts from Stafford
• Pass-heavy offense: Teams averaging 37+ pass attempts per game (Rams, Patriots) create natural Over bias

Low-Volume Scenarios:

• Run-heavy offense: Teams averaging <30 pass attempts per game (Seahawks, Broncos) create Under bias
• Blowout wins: If Seattle leads Rams 24-7 at halftime, expect clock-control limiting Darnold's volume

Passing Touchdowns: Red-Zone Efficiency

Passing TD props are heavily influenced by red-zone usage.

Over Indicators:

• Red-zone pass-heavy teams: Rams throw 80% of the time inside the 1-yard line
• Weak red-zone defense: Los Angeles allowed 2+ passing TDs in 6 of last 8 games

Under Indicators:

• Goal-line rushing teams: Seattle relies on Kenneth Walker III for goal-line carries
• Elite red-zone defense: Denver ranks 5th in red-zone TD prevention

Playoff Trends: Defenses Tighten, Passing Shrinks

Historical playoff passing yard averages drop 8-12% vs. regular season due to defensive intensity, conservative play-calling, and weather.

• Regular-season average: 247.3 YPG
• Playoff average: 221.8 YPG (-25.5 yards, -10.3%)
• Exception: Losing QBs in high-scoring games average 278.4 YPG due to desperate trailing game script

Super Bowl LX Passing Yards Props Projections

Most Likely Matchup: Seahawks vs. Patriots

If both favorites win, expect Sam Darnold (+250 MVP) vs. Drake Maye (+280 MVP) with passing yard props around:

• Darnold: 242.5 yards (lean Over if Pats lead early)
• Maye: 237.5 yards (lean Under if Seahawks' defense dominates)

Sharpest bet: Darnold Over 242.5 if the Patriots establish an early lead, forcing Seattle into a pass-heavy comeback script.

Highest-Scoring Potential: Rams vs. Patriots

A Rams-Patriots Super Bowl would feature two MVP-caliber QBs with passing yard props around:

• Stafford: 267.5 yards (lean Over in a shootout)
• Maye: 249.5 yards (lean Over if game total exceeds 51)

Sharpest bet: Stafford Over 267.5 in a potential 31-28 thriller where both QBs exceed 280 yards.

Shurzy Tip: Super Bowl QB props are about game script. If you think it's a shootout, bet Overs on both QBs. If you think it's a defensive slugfest, bet Unders on both. Don't overthink it.

Final Thoughts: Bet QB Props Like a Sharp

The four best quarterback props for Conference Championship Sunday are Matthew Stafford Over 251.5 Passing Yards, Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing TDs, Drake Maye Under 223.5 Passing Yards, and Jarrett Stidham Over 198.5 Passing Yards - all backed by elite matchup data, game-script analysis, and sharp betting value.

For Super Bowl LX, expect similar inefficiencies across MVP odds, passing TD props, and yards markets. The key is betting early to capture sharp numbers before public money floods the market.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

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