Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Quarterback Rankings and Matchup Breakdown

Quick Ranking for Super Bowl LX Context

Based on 2025 performance and current evaluations:

1. Matthew Stafford (Rams) - MVP-level veteran
2. Drake Maye (Patriots) - Ascending superstar
3. Sam Darnold (Seahawks) - Efficient distributor
4. Jarrett Stidham (Broncos) - Competent backup, lowest ceiling

Matthew Stafford - Rams

Led the NFL in passing yards (4,707), TDs (46) and ranked top-5 in QBR (71.1, 4th). Widely ranked the league's No. 1 QB in 2025, playing "his best ball at 37" and carrying the Rams offense.

2025 Stats:

• 4,707 passing yards (1st in NFL)
• 46 passing TDs (1st in NFL)
• 8 INTs (7th-fewest)
• 71.1 QBR (4th in NFL)
• 67.8% completion rate

Betting Implications:

Any Rams Super Bowl matchup is QB advantage Rams - supports Rams team-total Overs and Stafford props if protection holds.

His efficiency and low INT count (8 picks) reduce turnover risk relative to the others.

Best Stafford Props:

• Stafford Over 251.5 Passing Yards (-115): Hit in 12 of 19 games
• Stafford Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-140): Hit in 14 of 17 games
• Stafford Under 0.5 INTs (-120): Hit in 15 of 17 games (88% hit rate)

The NFL Playoff Player Rankings Every QB Ranked guide provides complete QB efficiency rankings for betting context.

Drake Maye - Patriots

2025: 3,567 yards, 23 TD, 7 INT, 70.9% completions, 109.1 rating in the regular season, plus 362 rushing yards and 4 rush TDs.

Articles describe his 2025 campaign as MVP-caliber and "one of the best sophomore seasons by a QB in NFL history," with league-leading yards per attempt around 8.9.

2025 Stats:

• 3,567 passing yards
• 23 passing TDs
• 7 INTs
• 70.9% completion rate
• 109.1 passer rating
• 362 rushing yards (4 rush TDs)
• 8.9 yards per attempt (1st in NFL)

Betting Implications:

Clear top-tier QB. Any AFC team he faces in the Super Bowl will likely be at a QB disadvantage.

Dual-threat production supports both passing and rushing props, but also raises sack/fumble exposure if OL falters.

Best Maye Props:

• Maye Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (+120): Hit in 8 of 17 games
• Maye Over 223.5 Passing Yards: Adjust to Under at altitude/cold
• Maye Anytime TD (+280): 4 rushing TDs in regular season creates value

The Best NFL Playoff Quarterback Props guide updates weekly QB prop recommendations with line movement analysis.

Sam Darnold - Seahawks

2025: 4,048 yards, 25 TD, 14 INT, 67.7% completions, 99.1 rating, 14-3 record as starter.

Graded as having a very strong year but with a higher INT rate and lower overall efficiency tier than Maye/Stafford.

2025 Stats:

• 4,048 passing yards
• 25 passing TDs
• 14 INTs (league-high among playoff QBs)
• 67.7% completion rate
• 99.1 passer rating
• 14-3 record as starter

Betting Implications:

Solid, playoff-caliber QB but not in the same class as Stafford or Maye. Needs scheme and supporting cast to stay clean.

Versus elite defenses/QBs, Seattle is more dependent on coaching and weapons. Darnold props are more sensitive to pass-rush matchups.

Best Darnold Props:

• Darnold 1+ Interceptions (-141): Hit in 12 of 17 games (70.6%)
• Darnold Under 2.5 Passing TDs (+115): Conservative total in playoff environment
• Darnold Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-110): Hit in 11 of 17 games

The NFL Playoff Passing Yard Props guide breaks down QB yardage projections by matchup.

Shurzy Tip: Darnold threw 6 INTs in 2 games vs. Rams this year. If Seahawks face Rams in NFC Championship, hammer Darnold 1+ INTs at -141.

Jarrett Stidham - Broncos

Career backup with limited recent volume. Best start was a 365-yard, 3-TD game vs a No. 1 defense in 2022, but overall sample is small.

Denver is confident in him, but he has taken 13 sacks in four career starts, showing pressure sensitivity.

Career Stats (4 starts):

• 16.8 PPG average in home starts
• 198.5 passing yards per game
• 13 sacks in 4 starts (3.25 per game)
• 2-2 record

Betting Implications:

In any Super Bowl scenario, Broncos would be big QB underdogs with Stidham.

Markets may overreact (pricing him as unplayable), but realistically he sits in a low-ceiling, high-variance tier. Best used for alt Overs in plus scripts or Unders vs top defenses.

Best Stidham Props:

• Stidham Over 198.5 Passing Yards (+118): Public will bet Under due to inexperience
• Stidham 2+ Sacks Taken (-110): Pressure-sensitive backup vs. Patriots' pass rush
• Stidham Under 1.5 Passing TDs (+125): Conservative game script limits TD upside

The NFL Playoff Interception Props guide provides INT prop frameworks for backup QBs.

Matchup Notes for Likely Super Bowl Pairings

Rams vs Patriots: Stafford vs Maye

Elite vs elite chess match. Advantage depends more on OL/DL and scheme than raw QB talent - both support Overs if pass protection is decent.

Projected line: Pick'em to Rams -1.5
Total: 51.5-52.5 (highest of potential matchups)

Best bets:

• Game Over 51.5
• Both QBs Over passing yards
• Stafford MVP +450 (favored due to narrative/age)

Seahawks vs Patriots: Darnold vs Maye

Clear QB edge Patriots. If the line doesn't fully reflect Maye's efficiency edge over Darnold, that's where side and passing-prop value likely sits.

Projected line: Patriots -3 to -3.5
Total: 47.5-48.5

Best bets:

• Patriots -3
• Maye Over passing yards
• Darnold 1+ INTs

Rams vs Seahawks: Stafford vs Darnold

Big QB advantage Rams. Stafford's downfield efficiency vs Darnold's higher mistake rate tilts you toward Rams sides and Stafford TD/yardage props.

Projected line: Rams -2.5 to -3
Total: 48.5-49.5

Best bets:

• Rams -2.5
• Stafford Over 2.5 Passing TDs
• Darnold 1+ INTs

Any Matchup with Broncos/Stidham

Broncos would rely on defense and run game. Expect lower team totals and a narrower passing tree, with Stidham Unders vs top units and only cautious Overs vs softer looks.

Projected line: Broncos +4.5 to +7.5 (depending on opponent)
Total: 40.5-43.5 (lowest of potential matchups)

Best bets:

• Game Under
• Stidham Under 1.5 Passing TDs
• Opponent team total Over

The NFL Playoff MVP Betting Guide explains how QB performance affects MVP odds in real-time.

QB-Driven Betting Strategy

When QB Advantage is Clear (2+ Point Swing):

Example: Maye vs Stidham (4-5 point QB advantage Patriots)

• Bet the superior QB's team on spread
• Bet superior QB's passing yards Over
• Bet inferior QB's interception props
• Fade inferior QB's team total

When QB Matchup is Even:

Example: Stafford vs Maye (pick'em)

• Focus on OL/DL matchups instead of QB
• Target team totals based on pace/defense
• Play QB yardage props based on pass-rush differential

When QB Advantage is Moderate (1-2 Point Swing):

Example: Stafford vs Darnold (2-point advantage Rams)

• Bet superior QB's team on tight spreads (-2.5 or less)
• Target passing TD props for superior QB
• Consider turnover props for inferior QB

Best QB Props for Championship Sunday

Best QB Prop #1: Sam Darnold 1+ Interceptions (-141)

Confidence: Maximum
Stake: 2-3 units

6 INTs in 2 games vs. Rams, 70.6% hit rate (12 of 17 games).

Best QB Prop #2: Drake Maye Under 223.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Confidence: High
Stake: 1-2 units

Denver 68-sack defense at altitude, cold weather suppresses passing 12-15%.

Best QB Prop #3: Matthew Stafford Over 251.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Confidence: High
Stake: 1-2 units

Hit in 12 of 19 games, Over in both games vs. Seahawks this year.

Final Thoughts

As you build Super Bowl LX positions, treat Stafford and Maye as true franchise drivers worth a couple of points on the spread, Darnold as a solid but scheme-dependent starter, and Stidham as a volatile backup who makes Denver much more matchup- and script-dependent.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

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