NFL Playoff Interception Props: Best QB INT Bets

QB Interception Rate: The Foundation

Establishing baseline INT probability by QB is your starting point for every NFL player props calculation on interceptions.

2025 QB Interception Rate Leaders:

• Sam Darnold: 3.1% (per 100 attempts), 16 season INTs, Elite dangerous tier
• Trevor Lawrence: 2.1%, 12 season INTs, High tier
• Patrick Mahomes: 2.2%, 11 season INTs, High tier
• Baker Mayfield: 2.0%, 11 season INTs, High tier
• Dak Prescott: 1.7%, 10 season INTs, Moderate tier
• Josh Allen: 2.2%, 10 season INTs, Moderate tier
• Joe Burrow: 1.9%, 5 season INTs, Low tier
• Matthew Stafford: 1.3%, 8 season INTs, Very low tier
• Michael Penix Jr.: 1.1%, 3 season INTs, Elite safe tier

Critical insight: Sam Darnold's 3.1% INT rate is 175% higher than Michael Penix Jr.'s 1.1%, creating nearly 3x variance that creates massive over and under edges when you pair with defensive analysis. For understanding QB performance in NFL betting spreads, check out NFL point spread predictions.

Formula you need: Expected INTs equals (Team passing attempts divided by 100) times QB INT percentage.

Example: Sam Darnold (3.1% INT rate) in game with 35 team passing attempts equals (35 divided by 100) times 3.1 equals 1.09 expected INTs. Line shows Darnold over 0.5 INTs at -110 (implied 52.4%) where true probability approximately 1.09 equals 52%+ creating near-neutral edge, so skip or take 0.5 units maximum.

Shurzy Tip: If QB INT rate is below 1.5%, you should default to under props every single time unless facing elite secondary.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

Three Factors for INT Prop Analysis

Professional INT prop bettors analyze three independent variables for every NFL playoff odds calculation.

Factor 1: QB Interception Rate (50% weight) - QB INT percentage is relatively stable year-to-year and drives baseline probability where you weight this highest in your calculations.

Factor 2: Defensive Secondary Quality (35% weight) - Elite secondaries generate interceptions while poor secondaries allow completion rates regardless of INT rate.

2025 Secondary INT Percentage Allowed (league leaders):

• Denver Broncos: 22 INTs, Elite secondary quality (8 INTs versus pass attempts), Boost INT props +15%
• Minnesota Vikings: 19 INTs, Strong secondary, Boost INT props +10%
• New England Patriots: 18 INTs, Strong secondary, Boost INT props +8%
• Baltimore Ravens: 17 INTs, Good secondary, Boost INT props +5%
• Kansas City Chiefs: 12 INTs, Poor secondary, Suppress INT props -10%
• Dallas Cowboys: 11 INTs, Poor secondary, Suppress INT props -12%

Wild Card application: Darnold over 0.5 INTs versus Patriots (18 INTs allowed, elite secondary) means 1.09 expected times 1.08 boost equals 1.18 projected for STRONG 1-unit over. Darnold over 0.5 INTs versus Chiefs (12 INTs allowed, poor secondary) means 1.09 expected times 0.90 suppression equals 0.98 projected for LEAN UNDER. For defensive matchup analysis, see NFL playoff best bets.

Factor 3: Opponent Pass Rush (15% weight) - Elite pass rushes force quick decisions where this leads to hurried throws and INTs.

Pass rush win rate impact: Elite PRWR (60%+) forces QBs into faster decisions where this increases bad throw percentage, adding +5% to INT rate. Poor PRWR (under 35%) allows QBs clean pockets where this decreases bad throw percentage, subtracting -5% from INT rate.

Example: Darnold over 0.5 INTs versus Chargers (elite pass rush, Maxx Crosby 4.5% sack rate) means 1.09 baseline times 1.08 (secondary boost) times 1.05 (pass rush force) equals 1.24 projected INTs for STRONG 1.5-unit over (implied approximately 52% versus true 62%+).

Under INT Props: The Contrarian Play

Here's the professional insight recreational bettors miss for NFL over under betting: under INT props have higher ROI than overs because bookmakers inflate INT rates based on public perception.

Why this happens: Public bets Darnold over INTs (thinking "Darnold throws picks"), line sets at -120 to -130 (over side overpriced), true probability approximately 52-55% while line implies 55-57%, making under -110 become underpriced positive expected value.

2025 evidence proving under value:

• Cameron Ward under 0.5 INTs: 7-1 record (88% hit rate, +6.60 units)
• Jalen Hurts under 0.5 INTs: 16-4 record (80% hit rate, +8.85 units)
• Matthew Stafford under 0.5 INTs: 13-5 record (72% hit rate, +5.65 units)

Professional strategy: Default to under INT props unless elite secondary plus elite pass rush present where under bets have structural positive expected value due to public over-betting turnovers. For understanding public bias, check out NFL prop betting guide.

Playoff-Specific INT Adjustments

Playoff games have unique characteristics that affect interception props for NFL playoff betting strategies.

Tournament Intensity Effect: Playoff QBs throw 2-3% fewer interceptions than regular season equivalent performance due to more conservative playcalling (eliminate turnovers at all costs), higher precision requirement (one turnover equals game swing), and less aggressive deep-ball volume (playoff defenses elite).

Adjustment you should make: Subtract 5-10% from INT baseline for all playoff games versus regular season.

Example: Darnold's 3.1% INT rate in regular season becomes 2.95% in playoffs (3.1% times 0.95 adjustment) where (35 attempts divided by 100) times 2.95% equals 1.03 expected INTs (down from 1.09).

Red Zone INT Risk: Interestingly, red zone INTs are LOWER than mid-field INTs because red zone defenses play conservative (prevent TDs, accept field goals), QBs attack with quicker releases (less time for INTs), and corners play looser (off coverage, prevent deep shots). Result is unlike general INT prop, red zone INTs are lower-probability than mid-field INTs, which is counterintuitive but true.

Practical Wild Card INT Prop Recommendations

Strong UNDERS (1-1.5 units) exploiting public over-bias:

• Jalen Hurts under 0.5 INTs (Eagles vs 49ers, Hurts 1.3% INT rate seasonal, historic under performer): Hurts 16-4 record on unders (80% hit rate) where playoff adjustment shows 1.3% times 0.95 equals 1.24%, (35 attempts divided by 100) equals 0.43 expected INTs, so line set at -110 under creates STRONG 1.5-unit under
• Matthew Stafford under 0.5 INTs (Lions playoff, Stafford 1.3% INT rate, elite consistency): Stafford 13-5 record on unders (72% hit rate, +5.65 units) for 1-unit under play
• Cameron Ward under 0.5 INTs (Commanders playoff, Ward 1.2% INT rate, lowest in league): Ward 7-1 record on unders (88% hit rate) for 1.5-unit strong under

Moderate OVERS (0.5-1 unit) only elite secondary plus pass rush matchups:

• Sam Darnold over 0.5 INTs (Seahawks vs Patriots, Darnold 3.1% INT rate, Patriots elite secondary): 3.1% times 0.95 playoff adjustment equals 2.95%, (35 attempts divided by 100) times 2.95% times 1.08 (Patriots secondary boost) times 1.05 (pass rush) equals 1.06 projected for 1-unit over only if secondary plus pass rush elite, otherwise skip
• Trevor Lawrence over 0.5 INTs (Jaguars playoff, Lawrence 2.1% INT rate, if facing elite secondary): Monitor opponent secondary where you only play if opponent secondary ranked top-10

FADE (0 units):

• Safe QBs (Penix Jr. 1.1%, Ward 1.2%, Stafford 1.3%) on overs because they already have structural under advantage
• Any QB in games with poor pass rush opponent (allows clean pockets, suppresses INTs)
• Mobile QBs (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen) on overs because mobility evades coverage and reduces INTs

For more recommendations, see NFL moneyline bets explained.

Shurzy Tip: When you see 80%+ hit rates on unders, that's not luck. That's systematic public mispricing you can exploit.

Advanced: INT Props as Hedge on Spread Bets

Professional stacking strategy for NFL parlay bets creates correlation value when done correctly.

If you're betting Bills -2.5 spread: Also bet Josh Allen under 0.5 INTs where rationale is Bills win equals conservative playcalling equals fewer INTs. Correlation shows both bets benefit from Bills dominance where benefit is hedge the spread downside (if Bills lose narrow game, Allen throws pick) while capitalizing on optimal game script.

For correlation strategies, check out NFL parlay bets explained.

The INT Prop Professional Edge

Interception props create professional edges because of multiple market inefficiencies you can exploit.

Why professionals win on INT props:

• Public overestimates INT risk (behavioral bias where they remember Darnold's picks but forget his drives without INTs)
• QB INT percentage is stable and predictable (1.3% QBs don't become 2.5% QBs because it's skill-based, not noise)
• Playoff adjustment is quantifiable (2-3% fewer INTs, mathematically consistent across seasons)
• Under-betting is systematically positive expected value (Hurts 80%, Ward 88% hit rates on unders prove structural edge)

A betting professional analyzing Jalen Hurts' 1.3% INT rate (known) plus playoff adjustment 0.95x (known) plus Eagles conservative script (knowable) can project 0.43 expected INTs. The bookmaker sets line assuming 0.5 threshold with public bias pushing under to positive expected value where the professional wins systematically over time.

Final Thoughts: Under Bias Beats Over Hype

The biggest mistake you'll make on interception props is betting overs based on QB reputation without checking actual INT rate data. You see Sam Darnold or Trevor Lawrence and automatically bet their INT over without realizing the public already bet the line up beyond value.

QB interception rate stability is everything for INT props where a safe QB with 1.3% INT rate doesn't suddenly throw picks at 2.5% rate just because the playoffs start. Focus on QB INT percentage (50% weight), factor in defensive secondary quality (35% weight), adjust for pass rush (15% weight), and bet only when your three-factor model projects 10%+ edge over implied probability.

Start with QB baseline INT rate, apply playoff adjustment (multiply by 0.95), factor in secondary boost or suppression, and bet only when mathematical edge exceeds 2% after all adjustments. Default to unders unless you have elite secondary plus elite pass rush creating genuine over value.

Shurzy Tip: Print the three-factor calculation and apply playoff adjustment every time. The 75-88% hit rates on safe QB unders are real and repeatable.

Read more: NFL Futures Betting Explained

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