UFC Betting Explained: Moneyline Betting Basics

The moneyline is where UFC betting begins. It's the simplest concept: pick a winner. Yet it's where most casual bettors lose money. Professional bettors make consistent profit on moneylines by understanding what most casual bettors ignore: the difference between a fighter being favored to win and a fighter's moneyline offering value. These are not the same thing. A fighter might be heavily favored but still overpriced. Conversely, an underdog might be undervalued and underpriced. Understanding moneyline betting fundamentals is the foundation for all UFC betting success.

What Is Moneyline Betting?

A moneyline bet is a wager on which fighter wins the fight. Period. No spread, no point total, no method qualification. One fighter wins or the other fighter wins. The moneyline expresses the probability the sportsbook assigns to each outcome and the profit you'll make if that outcome occurs.

Example: Makhachev vs. Poirier

Fighter

Moneyline

Implied Probability

Makhachev

-180

64.3%

Poirier

+155

39.2%

Makhachev is the favorite (negative odds). You must risk $180 to win $100 profit. Poirier is the underdog (positive odds). You risk $100 to win $155 profit. The sportsbook believes Makhachev wins 64.3% of the time and Poirier wins 39.2% of the time (the remaining 3.5% margin is juice, the sportsbook's commission).

Read more: The Complete Guide to UFC Betting Types & Markets

Understanding American Odds Format

American odds (used in UFC) splits into two formats that everyone needs to understand.

Negative Odds (Favorites): The number indicates how much you must risk to win $100.

• -180: Risk $180 to win $100 (total return $280)
• -200: Risk $200 to win $100 (total return $300)
• -400: Risk $400 to win $100 (total return $500)

Higher negative numbers mean stronger favorites. -400 is a much bigger favorite than -150 because you're risking more money to win the same $100.

Positive Odds (Underdogs): The number indicates your profit on a $100 wager.

• +150: Risk $100 to win $150 (total return $250)
• +200: Risk $100 to win $200 (total return $300)
• +500: Risk $100 to win $500 (total return $600)

Higher positive numbers mean bigger underdogs. +500 is a much bigger underdog than +100 because you make more money if they win.

Shurzy Tip: The bigger the negative number on a favorite, the more you're risking for less reward. Sometimes underdogs at +150 offer better value than favorites at -200 even if the favorite is more likely to win.

Converting Moneyline Odds to Probability

Understanding implied probability is critical because it reveals whether odds offer value.

For negative odds (favorites):
Formula: (Odds ÷ (Odds + 100)) × 100

Examples:

• -180 odds: (180 ÷ 280) × 100 = 64.3% implied probability
• -300 odds: (300 ÷ 400) × 100 = 75% implied probability

For positive odds (underdogs):
Formula: (100 ÷ (Odds + 100)) × 100

Examples:

• +155 odds: (100 ÷ 255) × 100 = 39.2% implied probability
• +300 odds: (100 ÷ 400) × 100 = 25% implied probability

These implied probabilities reveal market expectations. If you believe a fighter's true probability is higher than implied probability, you've found value. That's where profitable betting lives.

The Juice: Understanding the Sportsbook's Commission

In a perfectly balanced market, a 50/50 fight would be priced at even money on both sides. But sportsbooks need profit, so they build in commission called juice or vig.

Example: Fair fight between equally matched fighters

• True probability: 50% each
• Fair odds: -110 on both sides
• Total implied: 100% + 4.5% juice = 104.5%

The 4.5% juice is the sportsbook's guaranteed profit regardless of which fighter wins. Over thousands of bets, sportsbooks guarantee profit from juice.

Why juice matters: A standard -110 moneyline requires 52.4% win rate to break even (accounting for juice). If you're only 51% accurate on your picks, you lose money despite being right more often than wrong.

Professional bettors always account for juice when evaluating moneylines. A -110 moneyline on a fighter you think is 51% likely to win is a losing bet long-term.

Read more: UFC Betting Explained: How Round Betting Works

Favorites vs. Underdogs: Risk/Reward Dynamics

Understanding the fundamental difference between betting favorites and underdogs changes how you approach moneylines.

Betting Favorites:

Advantages:

• Higher probability of winning
• Simpler picks (they're favored for a reason)

Disadvantages:

• Reduced profit per bet
• Higher break-even requirement

Example: Bet $200 on -200 favorite. If you win 66.7% of these bets, you break even. If you win 67%, you profit. Most casual bettors can't hit 67% on favorites consistently.

Betting Underdogs:

Advantages:

• Higher profit per bet
• Lower break-even requirement
• Public money inflates favorites, creating underdog value

Disadvantages:

• Lower probability of winning
• Requires more bets to see patterns
• Variance is higher

Example: Bet $100 on +150 underdog. If you win 40% of these bets, you break even. If you win 41%, you profit. This is far more achievable for solid analysts.

Strategic insight: Professional bettors often specialize in underdogs because the math is more achievable. A 55% win rate on +150 underdogs is profitable. A 55% win rate on -200 favorites loses money. This is why underdogs are often undervalued.

Shurzy Tip: A 50% win rate on +150 underdogs makes money. A 50% win rate on -180 favorites loses money. Do the math before you bet.

Read more: UFC Betting Explained: How Method of Victory Betting Works

Implied Probability vs. True Probability: Finding Value

Value exists when your probability estimate differs from implied probability. This is where all profitable moneyline betting comes from.

Example 1: Undervalued Favorite

• Market: Makhachev -180 (64.3% implied)
• Your estimate: Makhachev 70% true probability
• Edge: 70% - 64.3% = +5.7% edge
• Action: Bet Makhachev at -180

Example 2: Undervalued Underdog

• Market: Poirier +155 (39.2% implied)
• Your estimate: Poirier 45% true probability
• Edge: 45% - 39.2% = +5.8% edge
• Action: Bet Poirier at +155 (higher expected value because underdog pays more)

Example 3: No Value (Skip the Bet)

• Market: Fighter A -110 (52.4% implied)
• Your estimate: Fighter A 50% true probability
• Edge: 50% - 52.4% = -2.4% edge
• Action: Skip this bet (negative expected value)

Only bet moneylines when your probability estimate exceeds implied probability. Most casual bettors ignore this rule and bet every moneyline they see, creating systematic losses.

Break-Even Rate: Critical Math

Understanding break-even rate (minimum win percentage needed to profit) is essential discipline.

For favorites at -200:
Break-even = 200 ÷ (200 + 100) = 66.7%

You must win 66.7% of -200 bets to break even. If you win only 66%, you lose money. This explains why betting heavy favorites is dangerous. The win rate must be extremely high to profit.

For underdogs at +150:
Break-even = 100 ÷ (100 + 150) = 40%

You only need to win 40% of +150 bets to break even. This explains why underdogs offer better value. Lower win rate required means edge is easier to achieve.

The Implication: A 55% win rate on +150 underdogs is wildly profitable. A 55% win rate on -200 favorites loses money. This is fundamental to understanding moneyline betting.

Read more: UFC Betting Explained: Prop Bets Explained

Moneyline Movement: What It Signals

Moneyline odds move for two primary reasons: new information and betting action. Understanding which is which creates edges.

Information-driven movement:

• Weigh-in results (fighter looks drawn, line moves against them)
• Injury news (fighter confirmed injured, line shifts)
• Training camp reports (fighter had great camp, line tightens)

Betting-action movement:

• Public money favoring one fighter inflates their odds (reduces value)
• Sharp money fading public money moves lines opposite (creates value)
• Reverse line movement (line moves against the betting percentage) signals sharp money disagreement

Professional bettors track which direction lines move and why. Reverse line movement (80% of bets on Fighter A but their odds worsen) is a powerful signal that professional money sees value on the other side.

Shurzy Tip: When 80% of bets are on one fighter but the line moves the opposite direction, sharp money is screaming. Listen to them.

Read more: UFC Betting Explained: Live Betting Markets

Line Shopping: Capturing the Best Price

Different sportsbooks price moneylines slightly differently. This creates real, quantifiable profit opportunities.

Book

Fighter A

Fighter B

DraftKings

-185

+160

FanDuel

-180

+155

BetMGM

-182

+157

Pinnacle

-175

+150

On Fighter B, the range is +150 to +160 (10 cents variance). On a $1,000 bet:

• +150 pays $1,500 return
• +160 pays $1,600 return
• $100 difference

On a year of 500 bets averaging 10 cents line shopping advantage, you save or capture $500 in additional profit. Professional bettors maintain accounts at 4-6 sportsbooks specifically to capture these differences.

Read more: UFC Betting Explained: Parlays Explained

Moneyline Tracking: Measuring Real Skill

The key metric for moneyline betting success is Closing Line Value (CLV), not win rate.

Example:

• Bet Fighter A at -150
• Closing line (market consensus): -110
• CLV: +40 (you got 40 cents better odds)

Positive CLV means you identified value before the market corrected. Over 500 bets, positive average CLV predicts long-term profitability regardless of individual wins/losses.

Most casual bettors never track CLV. They track win rate instead, which is misleading. You can win 55% of bets and still lose money if you consistently bet at worse odds than closing lines (negative CLV). Conversely, you can win 48% and profit if you consistently get better odds than closing (positive CLV).

Common Moneyline Mistakes

Betting every moneyline: Most casual bettors bet every fight regardless of edge. Profitable bettors skip most bets and only bet identified value.

Betting favorites for "safety": Favorites aren't safer. They just require higher win rates. A -200 favorite needs 66.7% win rate while a +150 underdog needs 40%. Neither is "safe" without edge.

Not accounting for juice: Betting -110 moneylines without realizing you need 52.4% win rate to break even. Juice costs real money.

Chasing losses: Losing a moneyline and immediately betting another to "get it back." Each bet is independent. Emotional betting destroys long-term results.

Not line shopping: Accepting the first moneyline available instead of comparing books. Leaving money on the table.

Read more: UFC Betting Explained: Futures Markets

Conclusion

Moneyline betting is the foundation of UFC betting, but mastery requires understanding implied probability, juice, break-even rates, and value identification. Most casual bettors lose on moneylines because they bet every fight, chase favorites for safety, and ignore the math.

Professional moneyline betting means researching thoroughly, comparing your probability estimates to market odds, line shopping for best prices, tracking CLV religiously, and only betting when genuine edge exists. A 55% win rate on underdogs at +150 creates profit. A 55% win rate on favorites at -200 creates losses.

The moneyline is simple to understand but difficult to master. Respect the math, track your CLV, shop lines relentlessly, and only bet value. Everything else is just gambling.

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