UFC Method of Victory Bets: KO/TKO vs Submission vs Decision Explained

Method of victory bets are where you stop just picking winners and start picking how they win. You're not just betting on whether Khabib beats Conor. You're betting on whether Khabib chokes him out in the third round or whether Conor lands that left hand and ends it early. It's more specific, which means bigger payouts, but also more ways to lose.

Most casual bettors sleep on method of victory props because they seem complicated. They're not. Once you understand how KO/TKO, submission, and decision bets actually work and when each one makes sense, you'll spot value that everyone else misses.

What Method of Victory Betting Actually Means

Instead of just betting Fighter A to win, you're betting Fighter A wins by knockout, submission, or decision. The odds are usually way better than a straight moneyline because you're predicting something more precise. Miss the method and your ticket's dead even if your fighter wins.

Books also offer "either fighter by KO/TKO" or "fight ends by submission" without picking a side. Those pay less since you're not calling a specific winner, but they can make sense when you're confident about how a fight plays out but not who takes it.

One thing to remember: bets are graded on the official result from the athletic commission and UFC stats, not what the cage announcer says. Sometimes announcers get it wrong in the moment. The official call is what counts.

Read more: How Method of Victory Betting Works

KO/TKO Bets (Plus DQ and Doctor Stoppages)

What Actually Counts as KO/TKO

Most sportsbooks lump several finish types into the KO/TKO category. Understanding exactly what qualifies matters because house rules vary slightly between books.

Typically includes:

• Clean knockout (fighter's out cold and can't intelligently defend)
• Referee stoppage from unanswered strikes (standing or ground and pound)
• Corner stoppage (corner throws in the towel between rounds)
• Doctor stoppage due to cuts or damage (usually treated as TKO)
• Sometimes disqualification gets lumped into KO/TKO if it's listed as "KO/TKO/DQ"

When Your KO/TKO Bet Wins or Loses

Your "Fighter A by KO/TKO" bet cashes if Fighter A wins in any of those ways. It loses if Fighter A wins by submission or decision, or if Fighter B wins by any method. Simple as that.

Example: If you bet "Justin Gaethje by KO/TKO" and he wins by decision after a back-and-forth war, you lose even though Gaethje won. You called the wrong path to victory.

Why KO/TKO Odds Vary So Much

The payout on KO/TKO bets depends entirely on the fighter's style and history. A power striker with eight straight knockouts will have way shorter odds on KO/TKO than a decision-heavy wrestler who's never finished anyone.

If Khabib (primarily a grappler) is favored to win, "Khabib by KO/TKO" will be a massive price because it's completely against his usual game plan. That's where you can find value if you've watched tape and noticed something the public hasn't, like improved striking or a specific matchup advantage.

Understanding the best strikers in UFC history and what makes them effective helps you evaluate whether a fighter's KO/TKO odds actually match their real finishing ability.

Submission Bets

What Counts as a Submission

Submission bets are pretty straightforward compared to KO/TKO. The finish types that qualify:

• Physical tap to a choke or joint lock
• Verbal submission (fighter verbally gives up)
• Technical submission (ref stops the fight due to a choke even without a tap, usually when a fighter goes out)
• Corner advising their fighter to submit between rounds (rare but it happens)

When Your Submission Bet Wins or Loses

"Fighter A by submission" only wins if Fighter A gets an official submission result. It loses if Fighter A wins by KO/TKO or decision, or if Fighter B wins by any method.

Example: You bet "Charles Oliveira by submission" because he's one of the most dangerous submission artists in the sport. He wins by first-round knockout instead. You lose even though Oliveira won. Wrong method.

Why Submission Odds Reflect Grappling Pedigree

In a matchup where one fighter is a high-level BJJ black belt and the opponent has a history of being submitted, "by submission" props will have shorter odds but still usually pay more than the straight moneyline.

The key is matching submission odds to actual grappling ability and opponent vulnerability. A fighter with elite BJJ facing someone with terrible takedown defense and no submission game creates real value on submission props.

Knowing the best grapplers in UFC history gives you context for evaluating whether a fighter's submission threat is real or just hype.

Decision (Points) Bets

What Counts as a Decision

"By decision" or "by points" means the fight goes the full distance and judges decide the winner. All these count:

• Unanimous decision (all three judges score for the same fighter)
• Split decision (two judges for one fighter, one for the other)
• Majority decision (two judges for one fighter, one scores it a draw)
• Technical decision (fight stopped early due to accidental foul or cut and sent to scorecards after a certain round, depending on commission rules)

All of those typically settle as "win by points" or "win by decision."

Read more: Method of Victory Odds Explained

When Your Decision Bet Wins or Loses

"Fighter A by decision" only wins if the fight goes to the scorecards and Fighter A gets the official nod from the judges. It loses if Fighter A wins via KO/TKO or submission, or if Fighter B wins by any method.

One edge case: if the fight ends in a draw, your decision bet typically loses unless your book has specific draw rules. Always check that before betting.

Why Decision Bets Make Sense Sometimes

If both fighters are durable, have low finish rates historically, and tend to go the distance, "by decision" props can actually be favored over finish props. The odds might pay less than KO/TKO or submission, but more than the moneyline.

Example: Two defensive wrestlers who rarely get finished and don't have knockout power facing each other. Decision is the most likely outcome by far. The odds reflect that, but can still offer value if books underestimate just how low the finish probability is.

Common Method of Victory Market Options

Most books offer these variations:

Fighter-Specific Method Bets:

• Fighter A by KO/TKO
• Fighter A by submission
• Fighter A by decision
• Fighter B by KO/TKO
• Fighter B by submission
• Fighter B by decision

Fight Outcome Method Bets (Either Fighter):

• Fight to end by KO/TKO (either fighter)
• Fight to end by submission (either fighter)
• Fight to end by decision (either fighter)

Why These Markets Matter

They let you bet your stylistic read of the fight instead of just picking a winner. If you know a grappler's only path to victory is grinding out a decision but the striker can end it early if anything lands clean, you can structure your bets around those specific scenarios.

The catch: these markets almost always carry more vig than straight moneylines. You need a legitimately strong edge to justify betting them instead of just taking the moneyline at better odds.

Quick Strategy for Method of Victory Bets

Align Props with Realistic Paths to Victory

Striker vs grappler is the classic example. The striker's main path is KO/TKO. The grappler's path is usually submission or grinding out a decision. Method of victory prices should reflect those probabilities. When they don't, that's where value lives.

If a wrestler is a huge favorite but "by decision" is paying plus money because casuals expect a submission, that's a bet worth considering if the wrestler historically wins by control and position rather than finishes.

Pay Attention to Durability and Gas Tank

Durable, defensively sound fighters with high output often favor "by decision" way more than KO/TKO, even when they're massive moneyline favorites. Both fighters being durable pushes the fight toward the scorecards.

Conversely, if one fighter has a history of getting knocked out or submitted late in fights, finish props become more valuable even if they're winning early.

Know the House Rules

Always check how your book treats doctor stoppages, corner stoppages, DQs, and technical decisions before betting method of victory props. Small rule differences between books can flip winners and losers when the finish type is borderline.

Some books count doctor stoppages as TKO. Others have a separate category. Some lump DQ into KO/TKO. Others don't. Reading the fine print saves you from bad beats on technicalities.

Don't Bet Method of Victory Just Because the Odds Look Good

Bigger odds don't automatically mean better value. A submission prop at +400 for a striker with zero ground game isn't value. It's a donation to the sportsbook. Method of victory bets require specific reads on how a fight plays out, not just chasing plus money.

The Bottom Line

Method of victory bets let you capitalize on stylistic reads that straight moneylines don't capture. When you know a wrestler's only realistic path is a grindy decision but books are pricing KO/TKO too short because of hype, that's your edge. Understanding what counts as KO/TKO versus submission versus decision, and matching those to fighter tendencies, separates profitable method betting from just gambling on bigger odds.

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