NFL Playoff Kicker Props: Field Goals, PATs, and Longest FG Bets

Why Kicker Props Are Actually Genius

Here's what makes kicker props different from every other NFL betting spread you're tracking: they're almost purely skill-based. When you bet on a running back to hit 80 yards, you're banking on play calls, defensive formations, game flow, and about 47 other variables. When you bet on a kicker to make field goals, you're betting on whether a professional kicker can do his job.

Why bookmakers lowball these lines:

• Casual bettors think kicker props are boring (they are)
• Nobody's flexing their kicker prop wins on Twitter
• Sportsbooks don't sharpen these lines like they do QB props
• That creates value for people who actually pay attention

The gap between elite kickers and what the market prices them at is insane. Nick Folk went 96.6% this season. Books still price him around 88-90% implied probability. That's the edge.

Shurzy Tip: Elite kickers hit 95%+ of their attempts. If a book is pricing a guy at 88-90% implied probability, that's free money sitting there. The market consistently undervalues accuracy.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

2025's Elite Kickers You Need to Know

Not all kickers are created equal. Some guys are automatic. Others turn into pumpkins when the pressure's on. Here's who's actually reliable heading into the playoffs, and why understanding NFL player props starts with knowing the fundamentals.

Accuracy Gods (2025 Regular Season):

• Nick Folk (Patriots): 96.6% FG%, 28/29 made
• Eddy Piñeiro (49ers): 96.6% FG%, 28/29 made
• Cameron Dicker (Chargers): 92.7% FG%, 38/41 made
• Kai Fairbairn (Texans): 91.7% FG%, 44/48 made

Long-Range Monsters (50+ yards):

• Brandon Aubrey (Cowboys): 11/17 from 50+, hit a 64-yarder
• Jason Myers (Seahawks): 9/12 from 50+, 75% conversion
• Will Reichard (Vikings): 11/13 from 50+, 84.6% conversion
• Chase McLaughlin (Bucs): 11/12 from 50+, 91.7% conversion

If you're building your NFL playoff best bets, knowing who can drill 55-yarders matters more than you think.

The Three Things That Actually Matter

Baseline Accuracy (This Is 50% of Everything)

Playoff kickers are weirdly MORE accurate than regular season. Better teams, better fields, better conditions. Take a guy's regular season percentage and bump it 2-4% for playoffs.

Why playoffs boost accuracy:

• Higher quality teams mean less chaos
• Elite mental toughness under pressure
• Better stadium conditions
• Reduced game variance

Example: Nick Folk hit 96.6% in the regular season. In playoffs? Project closer to 98.6%. If you see Folk over 2.5 FGs at -110 (52% implied), that's massive undervalue when his true probability is 63%+.

Cameron Dicker at 92.7% becomes 94.5% in playoffs. That 2% matters when you're betting NFL moneyline bets and stacking props.

Shurzy Tip: Don't overthink this. If a kicker hit 95%+ during the season and his team scores, he's making those kicks. That's the bet.

Team Offensive Power (This Is 35% of Everything)

A kicker can't make field goals if his offense never gets close to the end zone. Elite offenses mean more red zone trips, which means more FG attempts. This is where understanding your team's offensive efficiency pays off, just like tracking line movement in NFL betting.

FG Attempts Per Game (2025):

• Houston Texans: 3.2/game (Kai Fairbairn feast mode)
• Philadelphia Eagles: 2.9/game (Jake Elliott eating)
• LA Rams: 2.7/game (consistent volume)
• Kansas City Chiefs: 1.8/game (they score TDs instead)
• New England Patriots: 1.9/game (low scoring offense)

Real-world application:

Kai Fairbairn over 2.5 FGs makes sense. Texans average 3.2 attempts per game with elite offensive flow. His 91.7% accuracy plus playoff boost projects him at 3.0 FGs. That's a 1.5-unit play.

Nick Folk over 2.5 FGs? Patriots only attempt 1.9/game. Even with 96.6% accuracy, he projects around 1.8-1.9 FGs. Skip it or lean under.

Shurzy Tip: High-powered offenses create kicker opportunities. Low-scoring teams don't. Match the kicker's accuracy to his team's offensive output. Both need to align.

Stadium and Weather (This Is 15% of Everything)

Indoor games are a kicker's dream. Wind and cold are nightmares. Unlike offensive NFL over under betting where conditions affect everyone, weather hits kickers hardest.

Weather Impact Chart:

• Indoor/Dome: Baseline accuracy, longest FG opportunities
• Mild (40-55°F, light wind): Baseline performance
• Cold (32-40°F): -1% accuracy, -5 to -10 yards max distance
• Severe cold (below 32°F): -2% accuracy, -10 to -15 yards max distance
• Wind (15-20 mph): -2% accuracy, -10 to -15 yards suppression
• Wind (20+ mph): -4% accuracy, -20 to -25 yards killed

Wild Card weather scenarios:

Soldier Field with 15-22 mph winds? Suppress all FG props by 4% accuracy. Longest FG props drop by 20 yards.

Neutral field with mild 52°F conditions? Play baseline kicker props normally.

Dome games or favorable outdoor conditions? Slight boost to longest FG props.

Shurzy Tip: Check the weather before you bet. A 95% kicker in 20 mph winds becomes a 91% kicker. That's the difference between cashing and losing.

PAT Props: The Easiest Money (When Available)

PAT (extra point) props rarely show up, but when they do, they're almost automatic. NFL kickers convert PATs at 98.5% across the league. Elite guys are at 99.5%.

The edge: Bookmakers price these conservatively because they're so reliable. When you see PAT props listed, the line is usually fair or slightly favorable.

Strategic approach:

• "PAT successful after TD" at worse than -500: Usually fair, no major edge
• "PAT miss in game" at +1200 or longer: Tiny longshot lottery ticket only

Fun fact: Only 2 missed PATs in Super Bowl history (1988, 2006). True probability of a Super Bowl PAT miss is 0.3%. Books usually price this around +1500, which is roughly accurate.

Shurzy Tip: PAT props are rare. When they show up, they're boring and reliable. If you see massive plus-money on a PAT miss, it's usually correctly priced as a near-impossible longshot.

Field Goals Made: The Core Kicker Bet

Over/under on field goals made (usually 2.5 or 3.5) is where you'll spend most of your time. This is the bread and butter of kicker props, and it pairs perfectly with your NFL parlay bets if you're stacking plays.

Wild Card Weekend Plays

Strong OVERS (1 to 1.5 units):

Kai Fairbairn over 2.5 FGs (Texans playoff game)

• 91.7% accuracy, 3.2 FGs/game team pace
• Calculation: 3.2 expected FGs × 91.7% accuracy × 1.02 playoff boost = 3.0 FGs projected
• Line at 2.5? That's strong 1.5-unit over territory

Cameron Dicker over 2.5 FGs (Chargers playoff game)

• 92.7% accuracy, 2.8 FGs/game team pace
• Calculation: 2.8 × 92.7% × 1.02 = 2.65 FGs projected
• Solid 1-unit over play

Plays to Skip:

Nick Folk over 2.5 FGs (Patriots playoff game)

• 96.6% accuracy but only 1.9 FGs/game team pace
• Calculation: 1.9 × 96.6% × 1.02 = 1.87 FGs projected
• Marginal at best. Skip or lean 0.5-unit under

General fades:

• Kickers on low-scoring offenses in bad weather (double suppression)
• Backup kickers in any situation
• Any kicker below 85% accuracy in windy conditions

Shurzy Tip: Match accuracy to volume. A 95% kicker on a bad offense won't hit 3 FGs. An 88% kicker on a great offense is still unreliable. You need both.

Longest Field Goal Props: The Fun Longshots

"Longest FG made" props are entertainment bets with occasional value. They combine long-range accuracy, coaching decisions, and weather into one spicy wager. When you're looking at NFL futures betting, these props add short-term action.

Long-Range Specialists to Watch

Elite 50+ yard kickers:

• Will Reichard: 11/13 from 50+ (84.6%)
• Brandon Aubrey: 11/17 from 50+ (64.7%), has hit 64 yards
• Jason Myers: 9/12 from 50+ (75.0%)
• Chase McLaughlin: 11/12 from 50+ (91.7%)

Wild Card applications:

Jason Myers team longest FG over 55.5 yards (Seahawks playoff)

• Myers has attempted 60+ yard kicks multiple times
• 75% conversion from 50+, favorable conditions expected
• Competitive game means coaches will let him try
• 0.5-unit play at +150 or better

Brandon Aubrey team longest FG over 60.5 yards (if Cowboys were in playoffs)

• Record 64-yard successful attempt this season
• Elite leg strength, coaches trust him from distance
• 0.3-unit entertainment longshot

Process for longest FG evaluation:

1. Identify the long-range specialist on each team
2. Check their historical longest successful attempts
3. Adjust for weather (subtract 10-20 yards in wind)
4. Calculate if the line represents value
5. Bet 0.3 to 0.5 units max (this is a fun play, not a core bet)

Shurzy Tip: Longest FG props are lottery tickets. Bet them small, have fun, and know that one 58-yarder can turn +200 into a winning week.

Stacking Kicker Props With Game Bets

Here's where it gets smart. If you're already betting a game spread or moneyline, add the kicker prop for correlation value.

Example stack:

You're betting Eagles -5 spread (you think they dominate). Also bet Jake Elliott over 2.5 FGs.

Why this works:

• Eagles winning by 5+ usually means a competitive game
• Competitive games mean red zone trips without TDs
• More red zone trips mean more FG attempts
• Both bets benefit from Eagles offensive efficiency

This is how you build smart NFL playoff odds into layered bets that correlate without being the same wager.

Shurzy Tip: Don't just bet kicker props in a vacuum. Stack them with your game bets when the logic aligns. Eagles -5 + Elliott over 2.5 FGs is two independent edges on correlated outcomes.

Why Kicker Props Are a Professional Edge

Kicker props work because they're predictable and undervalued. While everyone's chasing flashy TD props and NFL playoff prop bets on star players, you can quietly stack wins on guys who just do their job.

Why professionals exploit kicker props:

• Accuracy is 95%+ skill-based (not game-script chaos)
• Bookmakers underprice elite kickers (casuals avoid these bets)
• Playoff adjustments are quantifiable (+2-4% boost)
• Weather impact is calculable and predictable
• PAT reliability is 99.5% (easy targeting when lines appear)

The professional approach:

A sharp bettor analyzing Kai Fairbairn sees 91.7% accuracy (known), Texans 3.2 FGs/game (known), and playoff 1.02× adjustment (known). That projects 3.0 expected FGs. The bookmaker prices Fairbairn over 2.5 at -110 (52.4% implied). The sharp's 3.0 projection (60%+ probability) beats implied by 8%+. That's clear value.

You don't need a PhD in statistics. You need to know the kicker's accuracy, his team's offensive output, and the weather. That's it.

Shurzy Tip: Kicker props are boring. That's why they're profitable. While everyone else is chasing fireworks, you're cashing tickets on guys who make 95% of their kicks.

Final Take

Kicker props won't make you Instagram famous. They won't give you wild bad-beat stories or insane 10-leg parlay screenshots. They'll just quietly make you money while everyone else is losing theirs on flashier bets.

This playoff season, add kicker props to your toolkit. Bet the overs on elite kickers with high-volume offenses. Fade the unders on low-scoring teams. Check the weather. Keep it simple.

F*ck spreadsheets. Just bet the guys who don't miss.

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