Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Anytime Touchdown Bets Explained

What Is a Super Bowl Anytime Touchdown Bet?

An anytime touchdown scorer bet means you're wagering that a specific player will score a touchdown at any point during the game - whether in the first quarter, during a fourth-quarter comeback, or even in overtime.

The bet wins if your selected player:

• Rushes into the end zone (running backs, quarterbacks on designed runs or scrambles)
• Catches a touchdown pass (wide receivers, tight ends, running backs on screen passes)
• Returns a fumble, interception, or special-teams play for a touchdown (defensive players, kick/punt returners)

Critical Rule: Passing touchdowns do NOT count for anytime TD bets. If you bet on Patrick Mahomes to score an anytime TD, only his rushing touchdowns count - not the 45 passing TDs he throws.

How NFL TD Bets Odds Work

Anytime TD odds are displayed in American format (e.g., +170, -140), with plus signs (+) indicating underdogs (higher payout, lower probability) and minus signs (-) indicating favorites (lower payout, higher probability).

Example odds:

• Kenneth Walker III at +170: A $100 bet wins $170 profit if Walker scores (implied probability: 37.0%)
• Rhamondre Stevenson at +225: A $100 bet wins $225 profit if Stevenson scores (implied probability: 30.8%)
• Drake Maye at +475: A $100 bet wins $475 profit if Maye scores (implied probability: 17.4%)

Why Sharp Bettors Love Anytime TD Bets:

• Market inefficiencies: Sportsbooks struggle to accurately price backup players, game-script changes, and red-zone usage
• Engagement: Unlike spreads or totals, TD bets keep you invested until the final whistle
• Parlays: Combining multiple TD scorers creates exponential payout potential (three +200 plays parlay to +2600)

Shurzy Tip: Anytime TD betting is about finding players whose odds don't match their actual scoring probability. If a guy scores 80% of the time but the odds imply he'll score 37% of the time, that's value.

Best Super Bowl Anytime Touchdown Bets for Conference Championship Sunday

NFC Championship: Rams at Seahawks

Best Bet #1: Davante Adams (+330)

Confidence: Maximum (3-4 units)

Davante Adams led the Rams with a 40% target share inside the 10-yard line and scored 14 touchdowns during the regular season, making him Matthew Stafford's primary red-zone weapon. At +330 odds (implied probability: 23.3%), Adams offers elite value compared to his true 35-40% scoring probability based on red-zone usage and Seattle's middle-of-the-pack red-zone defense (ranked 16th, allowing TDs on 59.2% of red-zone trips).

Why Adams cashes +330:

• 40% target share inside the 10-yard line (Rams' primary red-zone weapon)
• 14 TDs during regular season (league-leading)
• Scored in both 2025 meetings vs. Seattle (1 TD each game)
• Rams' #1 offense (30.5 PPG) creates high-volume scoring opportunities
• +330 odds offer 3.3x payout vs. true 35-40% probability

Betting Action:

• Place 2-3 units on Davante Adams Anytime TD +330 (DraftKings, FanDuel)

Shurzy Tip: Red-zone target share is everything. Adams gets 40% of targets inside the 10. That's not luck. That's the game plan.

Best Bet #2: Kenneth Walker III (+170)

Confidence: Maximum (4-5 units)

Kenneth Walker III is the betting favorite to score a touchdown in Super Bowl LX at +170, reflecting his elite red-zone usage (21.4 longest rush average, 12 TDs in last 10 games). With backup Zach Charbonnet ruled out for the season with a torn ACL, Walker will dominate backfield touches (projected 23+ carries) and serve as Seattle's primary goal-line weapon.

Why Walker is a lock at +170:

• 12 TDs in last 10 games (80% scoring rate)
• Scored in both 2025 meetings vs. Rams
• 23.1 carries per game in last 10 (elite volume)
• No backup competition (Charbonnet out for season)
• +170 odds = 37% implied vs. 60-70% true probability

Betting Action:

• Place 3-4 units on Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD +170 (DraftKings, FanDuel)
• Sprinkle 0.5-1 unit on Walker First TD +700 for lottery-ticket upside

Shurzy Tip: When the backup is injured and the starter gets 23+ carries with all goal-line work, you don't need advanced metrics. You just bet him.

Best Bet #3: Cooper Kupp (+600)

Confidence: Medium-High (2 units)

Cooper Kupp saw eight targets in the Divisional Round and should receive similar volume in a potential shootout vs. Seattle, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba drawing most secondary attention. At +600 odds (implied probability: 14.3%), Kupp offers exceptional long-shot value as the Rams' slot weapon in red-zone situations.

Betting Action:

• Place 1-2 units on Cooper Kupp Anytime TD +600 (BetMGM, FanDuel)

AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos

Best Bet #4: Courtland Sutton (+270)

Confidence: Maximum (3-4 units)

When a backup QB gets thrown into the fire, he locks onto his top option - and Courtland Sutton fits the bill perfectly. Sutton saw nine targets vs. Buffalo in the Divisional Round and will serve as Jarrett Stidham's primary safety valve against a Patriots defense that ranks 23rd in red-zone TD prevention.

Why Sutton scores at +270:

• 9 targets vs. Buffalo (Stidham's #1 option)
• Backup QBs lock onto WR1 in high-leverage situations
• Patriots rank 23rd in red-zone TD prevention
• +270 odds = 27% implied probability (conservative game creates fewer TDs)
• Denver's #1 red-zone target in field-goal-heavy game

Historical precedent: In 2022, Stidham threw to DeVante Parker 12 times in his only full start as a Raider. Backup QBs disproportionately target their #1 receiver.

The Bills vs. Jaguars Wild Card game showed similar backup QB dynamics with target concentration.

Betting Action:

• Place 2-3 units on Courtland Sutton Anytime TD +270 (DraftKings, BetMGM)

Shurzy Tip: Backup QB = lock onto WR1. Every. Single. Time. Stidham throws to Sutton 10+ times. Bet accordingly.

Best Bet #5: Rhamondre Stevenson (+225)

Confidence: High (3 units)

Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 12.8 opportunities per game in the playoffs and scored in the Wild Card Round vs. the Chargers, extending his streak to 3 TDs over the last 4 games. At +225 odds (implied probability: 30.8%), Stevenson offers elite value as New England's goal-line hammer in a game where conservative play-calling and clock control create short-yardage TD opportunities.

Why Stevenson cashes +225:

• 12.8 opportunities per game in playoffs (touches + targets)
• 3 TDs in last 4 games (75% scoring rate)
• Denver allowed 183 rushing yards to Buffalo (most all season)
• 14 red-zone carries in last 4 games (primary goal-line usage)
• Conservative Patriots game plan creates short-yardage TD spots

Betting Action:

• Place 2-3 units on Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD +225 (DraftKings, FanDuel)

Advanced Anytime TD Strategy: Finding Value in Touchdown Props

Target Red-Zone Leaders

Sharp bettors prioritize players with high red-zone target/carry shares, as they have the highest probability of scoring.

Key metrics:

• Red-zone targets (WRs, TEs): 8+ targets inside the 20-yard line = elite scoring probability
• Red-zone carries (RBs): 12+ carries inside the 20-yard line = primary goal-line role
• Goal-line carries (inside the 5-yard line): 5+ carries = near-guaranteed TD opportunities

Exploit Game Script

Favorites typically score more touchdowns because they control the game and possess the ball more. Conversely, underdogs in high-scoring games offer value if the game becomes a shootout.

Examples:

• If Rams trail Seattle 21-10 in 4th quarter, expect pass-heavy script boosting Nacua and Adams TD probability
• If Denver leads New England 17-7, expect run-heavy script boosting RJ Harvey TD probability

Backup QB = Lock Onto #1 Option

When backup QBs start, they disproportionately target their #1 wide receiver in high-leverage situations.

Example: Jarrett Stidham will target Courtland Sutton 10+ times as his security blanket.

Parlay TD Scorers for Exponential Value

Combining 2-3 TD scorers in a parlay creates massive payout potential.

Example 3-Leg Parlay:

Kenneth Walker III (+170) + Davante Adams (+330) + Rhamondre Stevenson (+225) = +3200 parlay (bet $50 to win $1,600)

Caution: Parlays are high-risk, high-reward. Limit allocation to 1-2 units per parlay.

The Rams vs. Panthers Wild Card game showed exactly how to build profitable TD parlays using correlated player props.

Shurzy Tip: Don't parlay more than 3 TD scorers. The math works against you. Two or three legs with correlated game script? That's where the value lives.

Super Bowl LX Anytime Touchdown Projections

Most Likely Matchup: Seahawks vs. Patriots

If both favorites win, expect Kenneth Walker III (+170) to lead the board, with TreVeyon Henderson (+250) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+250) rounding out the top five.

Sharpest bets:

• Kenneth Walker III +170 (highest probability scorer)
• Stefon Diggs +350 (Patriots' red-zone weapon)
• Hunter Henry +300 (led AFC in red-zone targets)

Highest-Scoring Potential: Rams vs. Patriots

A Rams-Patriots Super Bowl would create the highest-scoring TD environment, with Davante Adams (+330) and Puka Nacua (+350) leading the board.

Sharpest bets:

• Davante Adams +330 (primary red-zone target)
• TreVeyon Henderson +250 (Patriots' goal-line back)

Final Thoughts: Cash Touchdown Props Like a Sharp

The five best anytime TD bets for Conference Championship Sunday are Kenneth Walker III (+170), Davante Adams (+330), Courtland Sutton (+270), Rhamondre Stevenson (+225), and Cooper Kupp (+600) - all backed by elite red-zone usage, favorable matchups, and sharp value.

For Super Bowl LX, expect similar market inefficiencies across primary scorers and long-shot sleepers. The key is betting early to lock in the best numbers before sharp money moves the line.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

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