Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Over/Under Picks and Total Betting Strategy

Conference Championship Super Bowl Totals: The Sharp Betting Board

Current Total Lines (January 26, 2026):

NFC Championship: Rams at Seahawks

• Total: 47.5
• Opening Line: 48.5
• Movement: -1 point
• Public Action: 52% Over, 48% Under

AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos

• Total: 41.5
• Opening Line: 40.5
• Movement: +1 point
• Public Action: 58% Over, 42% Under

Key insight: The Rams-Seahawks total has dropped a full point from its 48.5 opening, signaling sharp money on the Under despite relatively balanced public action. Conversely, the Patriots-Broncos total has climbed from 40.5 to 41.5, with 58% of public money backing the Over. Yet sharp bettors (42% of bets, 68% of handle) are quietly taking the Under, creating a classic contrarian opportunity.

Shurzy Tip: When a total drops a full point despite balanced public action, that's sharp money moving the line. Follow it.

NFC Championship: Rams at Seahawks Total 47.5 - The Under Play

Best Bet: Under 47.5 (-110)
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

The Under 47.5 offers exceptional value based on three structural edges: defensive dominance, playoff intensity, and historical divisional-rematch trends.

Seattle's Elite Defense Suppresses Scoring

The Seahawks' defense ranks 2nd in points allowed (15.7 PPG), 4th in yards allowed per play (4.6), and has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns (0) in the NFL. More importantly, Seattle has held opponents under 20 points in 11 of 17 regular-season games (64.7%), demonstrating structural consistency in limiting scoring.

Key defensive metrics:

• 2nd in points allowed (15.7 PPG)
• 4th in yards allowed per play (4.6)
• 0 rushing touchdowns allowed (only team in NFL)
• 11 of 17 games holding opponents under 20 points
• 45 sacks (7th in NFL) and +9 turnover margin (6th in NFL)

In the two regular-season meetings, the Week 11 total stayed Under (21-19, total: 40 vs. 48.5 line), while the Week 16 thriller went Over (38-37 OT, total: 75 vs. 41.5 line). However, the Week 16 explosion was driven by four turnovers, two defensive touchdowns, and overtime - elements unlikely to repeat in a playoff atmosphere where both coaching staffs tighten schemes.

Rams' Offense Faces Playoff Defensive Adjustments

While Los Angeles ranks #1 in offensive yards per game (375.5 YPG) and points per game (30.5), their 12-7 Over/Under record (41.4% Over rate) suggests they frequently play lower-scoring games than the market anticipates.

Additionally, the Rams scored only 20 points in their Divisional Round overtime win vs. Chicago, demonstrating offensive inconsistency against elite defenses.

The Rams vs. Bears Over/Under breakdown showed exactly how playoff intensity suppresses scoring even for high-powered offenses.

Seattle's defense has allowed 205.3 passing yards per game (13th in NFL) and ranks middle-of-the-pack in pass defense, but their aggressive pass rush (45 sacks, 7th in NFL) and turnover creation (+9 turnover margin, 6th in NFL) create shortened fields and conservative play-calling.

Historical Playoff Totals Favor the Under

Playoff totals above 47 in outdoor games have historically gone Under at a 65-70% clip, particularly in divisional rematches where familiarity breeds conservative play-calling. Additionally, home teams with elite defenses (allowing ≤5.5 yards per pass attempt) have seen Unders cash 61.5% of the time in playoff games.

The Seahawks fit this profile perfectly: they allow 5.1 yards per pass attempt (3rd in NFL), creating a structural Under bias that the market has undervalued at 47.5.

Projected Score: Seahawks 24, Rams 20 (Total: 44 - Under 47.5)

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on Under 47.5 (DraftKings -110, FanDuel -115)
• Avoid correlated parlays with Seahawks ML + Over, as the data strongly supports defensive control + Under

Shurzy Tip: When you see a divisional rematch in the playoffs where both teams already played twice this season, lean Under. Coaches know each other's playbooks inside and out. Defensive coordinators have film. Offensive surprises are rare. This game screams low-scoring grind.

AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos Total 41.5 - The Under Play

Best Bet: Under 41.5 (-110)
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

The Under 41.5 represents the sharpest total bet of Championship Sunday, backed by elite defensive metrics, backup quarterback uncertainty, and contrarian betting value.

Denver's Dominant Defense vs. Jarrett Stidham's Limited Upside

The Broncos' #2-ranked scoring defense (18.3 PPG allowed), 68 sacks (1st in NFL), and 5th-ranked third-down defense create a structural floor that limits New England's scoring ceiling. The Patriots scored only 16 points vs. the Chargers in the Wild Card Round and 28 points (including a defensive TD) vs. Houston in the Divisional Round, demonstrating offensive inconsistency against elite defenses.

Conversely, Denver's offense will be managed by backup QB Jarrett Stidham, whose career includes just 5 starts, 13 sacks, and a 1-3 record. While Stidham posted a 365-yard, 3-TD performance vs. the 49ers in 2022, that game came in garbage time with the Broncos trailing by 28 points. Expect a conservative, run-heavy game script designed to keep Drake Maye on the sideline and limit possessions.

Why Under 41.5 hits:

• Denver's #2 scoring defense (18.3 PPG allowed) and 68 sacks (1st in NFL)
• Patriots scored just 16 points vs. Chargers, 28 vs. Texans (including defensive TD)
• Stidham's career: 5 starts, 13 sacks, 1-3 record
• Conservative run-heavy game script limits possessions
• Patriots' #5 defensive EPA/play creates reciprocal Under bias

Patriots' Defense Limits Denver's Upside

New England's #5-ranked defensive EPA/play and 18.3 PPG allowed (2nd in AFC) create a reciprocal Under bias. The Patriots held Houston to just 13 first downs and 4.0 yards per play in the Divisional Round, converting only 3 of 14 third downs. Denver's offense, starting a backup QB, will struggle to exceed 17-21 points.

The Bills vs. Broncos matchup showed how Denver's defense can suffocate even high-powered offenses in playoff scenarios.

Altitude and Weather Favor the Under

Games at Mile High Stadium (5,280 feet elevation) historically see lower scoring due to wind, thin air affecting kicking accuracy, and home-field crowd noise disrupting pre-snap adjustments. While altitude can theoretically increase passing distance, the January weather (average temp: 39°F, wind: 10-15 mph) and potential snow create kicking and ball-handling challenges that favor Unders.

Sharp Contrarian Value

Despite 58% of public money backing the Over, sharp bettors (42% of bets, 68% of handle) have quietly taken the Under, pushing the line from 40.5 to 41.5. That's a classic reverse line movement signaling professional interest on the Under.

Historical context: The anticipated total before Nix's injury was 45.5 points, suggesting oddsmakers initially expected a higher-scoring game. The market's overadjustment downward (to 40.5) created an artificially low number, which sharp bettors exploited by buying back the Under at 41.5 after public money pushed the total upward.

Projected Score: Patriots 20, Broncos 17 (Total: 37 - Under 41.5)

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on Under 41.5 (DraftKings -110, FanDuel -110)
• Consider a 2-leg Under parlay (Rams-Seahawks Under 47.5 + Patriots-Broncos Under 41.5) at +264 odds for high-conviction bettors

Shurzy Tip: Backup QBs + elite defenses = automatic Under lean. Stidham isn't throwing 35 times. He's handing off, checking down, and praying Denver's defense holds. This game stays Under 41.5.

Super Bowl LX Total Projections: Historical Trends & Sharp Angles

Historical Super Bowl Totals: Dead Even, But Recent Trends Favor Unders

Over 59 Super Bowls, the Over/Under split is 29-29-1 (50% hit rate), demonstrating the efficiency of the totals market. However, recent trends heavily favor Unders:

• Last 5 Super Bowls: 5 straight Unders
• Super Bowls with totals ≥50: 15-8 Under (65.2%)
• Last 10 Super Bowls: 6 Unders, 4 Overs

Key insight: The market consistently overestimates scoring in high-stakes championship games, as defensive intensity, conservative play-calling, and pressure suppress offensive production.

Projected Super Bowl LX Totals by Matchup

Most Likely: Seahawks vs. Patriots (Total: 48.5)

If both favorites win, expect a total around 48.5, reflecting Seattle's elite defense (15.7 PPG allowed) and New England's balanced offense (27.8 PPG). The sharp play: Under 48.5, as playoff Super Bowls with totals ≥48 have gone Under 67% of the time.

Highest-Scoring Potential: Rams vs. Patriots (Total: 51.5)

If the Rams upset Seattle, a Rams-Patriots matchup would feature the #1 offense (Rams, 30.5 PPG) vs. the #3 offense (Patriots, 27.8 PPG), pushing the total to 51.5 - the highest of any potential matchup. However, totals ≥51.5 have gone Under in 4 of 6 Super Bowls since 2017.

Lowest-Scoring Potential: Seahawks vs. Broncos (Total: 44.5)

If Denver stuns New England, a Seahawks-Broncos matchup would feature two top-2 scoring defenses (Seattle: 15.7 PPG, Denver: 18.3 PPG), pushing the total down to 44.5 - the lowest of any potential matchup. The sharp play: Under 44.5, as defensive-driven Super Bowls have historically stayed 4-6 points below the closing total.

Key Totals Betting Strategy: When to Bet Over vs. Under

Sharp Bettors Lean Under When:

• Both defenses rank top 5 in scoring defense (Seahawks: 2nd, Patriots: 2nd, Broncos: 2nd)
• Backup QB is starting (Stidham in AFC Championship creates 3-7 point downward pressure on totals)
• Totals move downward from opening (Rams-Seahawks: 48.5 → 47.5 signals sharp Under money)
• Playoff rematches (NFC West rivals playing for the 3rd time favor conservative schemes)

Sharp Bettors Lean Over When:

• Total opens ≤43 in high-offense matchups (Rams-Patriots at 43.5 would be an Over play)
• Public heavily on the Under (contrarian Over if 65%+ of bets are on Under)
• Weather is perfect (Levi's Stadium in early February averages 59°F, dry conditions)

Shurzy Tip: The Super Bowl is the most-watched game of the year, which means the most casual money floods the market. Casual bettors love Overs because they're "fun." Sharp bettors love Unders because they cash. Be sharp, not fun.

Final Thoughts: Totals Are the Sharpest Bet Type for Championship Sunday

The Under 47.5 (Rams-Seahawks) and Under 41.5 (Patriots-Broncos) represent the highest-conviction total bets for Championship Sunday, backed by elite defensive metrics, playoff intensity, and contrarian value.

For Super Bowl LX, expect totals in the 44.5-51.5 range, with sharp bettors favoring the Under regardless of matchup. Playoff defenses win championships, and Unders cash tickets.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

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