Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Tight End Props and Red Zone Targets

Best Super Bowl Tight End Props for Conference Championship Sunday

Best Bet #1: Hunter Henry Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Game: Patriots at Broncos
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

Hunter Henry has recorded 50+ receiving yards in 14 of 17 regular-season games and leads all AFC tight ends with 21 red-zone targets (9 more than Stefon Diggs) - a staggering 84.0% red-zone target share that makes him Drake Maye's primary safety valve in high-leverage situations.

At 44.5 receiving yards, Henry needs just 4-5 receptions at 9 YPC to clear his line - well below his 5.2 receptions per game average.

Why Henry crushes Over 44.5:

• 50+ receiving yards in 14 of 17 regular-season games
• 21 red-zone targets (1st among Championship Sunday TEs, 84% catch rate)
• Denver ranks 13th in coverage grade vs. TEs (allowed 52.1 YPG in last 6 weeks)
• Patriots' conservative game script prioritizes checkdowns to neutralize Denver's 68-sack pass rush
• SportsLine projects Henry for 48 yards (A+ value)

Historical Context: In Henry's playoff debut vs. the Chargers, he recorded 5 receptions for 53 yards and 1 touchdown (scoring the first TD of the game), demonstrating his ability to exceed props in high-pressure environments. RotoWire ranks him as the #1 fantasy TE for Championship Sunday.

The Chargers vs. Patriots Wild Card game showed exactly how Henry dominates TE props in playoff scenarios.

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on Hunter Henry Over 44.5 Receiving Yards at -115 (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)
• Consider a 2-leg correlated parlay: Henry Over 44.5 + Anytime TD (+280) at +490 odds

Projected Line: Henry 51 yards, 5 receptions, 1 TD - Crushes the Over

Shurzy Tip: 21 red-zone targets isn't luck. That's the game plan. Henry is Maye's safety blanket in the red zone. Bet Over.

Best Bet #2: Colby Parkinson Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Game: Rams at Seahawks
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

Colby Parkinson has emerged as Matthew Stafford's red-zone weapon, recording 5 receptions for 90 yards and 1 TD in the Divisional Round vs. Chicago and scoring in both 2025 regular-season meetings vs. the Rams.

At 24.5 receiving yards, Parkinson needs just 2-3 receptions at 10 YPC to clear his line - an exceptionally low floor that minimizes bust risk.

Why Parkinson crushes Over 24.5:

• 5 receptions for 90 yards and 1 TD vs. Chicago in Divisional Round
• 18.0 yards per reception average in playoffs (highest among all TEs with 5+ receptions)
• Scored in both 2025 meetings vs. Rams
• Rams' 62% red-zone TD rate (top-5 in NFL) creates structural advantages
• Seattle allowed 45.3 YPG to TEs (middle-of-pack)

Key Edge: Parkinson's 18.0 yards per reception average in the playoffs (highest among all TEs with 5+ receptions) signals explosive upside against Seattle's linebackers. The Rams' red-zone TD rate (62%, top-5 in NFL) and Stafford's history of targeting tight ends in high-leverage situations create structural advantages.

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on Colby Parkinson Over 24.5 Receiving Yards at -115 (DraftKings, FanDuel)
• Sprinkle 1-2 units on Parkinson Anytime TD +320 for lottery-ticket upside

Projected Line: Parkinson 34 yards, 3 receptions, 1 TD - Crushes the Over

Best Bet #3: AJ Barner Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Game: Seahawks vs. Rams
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

AJ Barner has gone Under 29.5 receiving yards in 12 of 17 regular-season games despite ranking 4th in red-zone targets among all TEs (13 targets, 76.9% catch rate). Against the Rams' pass-heavy defense (allowing just 38.4 YPG to TEs over the last six games), Barner faces the toughest matchup of his rookie season.

Why Barner stays Under 29.5:

• Under 29.5 yards in 12 of 17 games
• 29.5-yard line is above 26.8 YPG regular-season average
• Rams allowed just 38.4 YPG to TEs in last 6 games
• Seattle's run-heavy offense limits Darnold's pass attempts to 25-28
• Rams deploy safety help over middle on 72% of snaps (neutralizes seam routes)

Key Edge: Seattle's run-heavy offense (Kenneth Walker III averages 23.1 carries per game) limits Darnold's pass attempts to 25-28, suppressing Barner's volume. The Rams deploy safety help over the middle on 72% of passing snaps (3rd-highest in NFL), neutralizing Barner's seam routes and checkdown role.

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on AJ Barner Under 29.5 Receiving Yards at -114 (DraftKings, FanDuel)

Projected Line: Barner 22 yards, 3 receptions - Hits the Under

Best Bet #4: Tyler Higbee Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Game: Rams at Seahawks
Confidence: High (4 units)

Tyler Higbee has gone Under 21.5 receiving yards in 11 of 17 regular-season games and recorded just 18 yards in the Divisional Round vs. Chicago despite playing 68% of snaps. At 21.5 receiving yards, Higbee's line offers Under value given his diminished role behind Colby Parkinson and the Rams' three-WR sets (Nacua, Adams, Kupp).

Why Higbee stays Under 21.5:

• Under 21.5 yards in 11 of 17 games
• Just 18 yards vs. Chicago despite 68% snap share
• 4th option in Stafford's progression behind Nacua, Adams, Kupp
• Seattle focuses bracket coverage on WRs, leaving Higbee as checkdown
• ATS.io projects Higbee for just 18 yards

Betting Action:

• Place 3-4 units on Tyler Higbee Under 21.5 Receiving Yards at -114 (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)

Projected Line: Higbee 17 yards, 2 receptions - Hits the Under

Advanced Red Zone Bets Strategy

Red Zone Target Share Is King

Sharp bettors prioritize tight ends with 15+ red-zone targets, as red-zone usage creates touchdown probability and high-leverage targets.

Elite Red Zone TEs (2025 Regular Season):

• Hunter Henry: 21 red-zone targets (1st among AFC TEs, 84.0% catch rate)
• AJ Barner: 13 red-zone targets (4th among all TEs, 76.9% catch rate)
• Colby Parkinson: 9 red-zone targets (scored in 9 of last 11 games)

Coverage Matchups: Linebackers vs. Safeties

Use coverage matchup tools to identify whether the defense deploys linebacker or safety help over the middle.

Over Indicators (Linebacker Coverage):

• Slow linebackers vs. athletic TEs: Denver's linebackers allow 52.1 YPG to TEs (13th in NFL)
• Seam routes: Henry averages 9.4 yards per red-zone target, exploiting vertical seams

Under Indicators (Safety Help):

• Two-high safety shell: Seattle deploys two-high safeties on 68% of snaps, limiting deep TE routes
• Bracket coverage: Rams deploy safety help over middle on 72% of snaps, neutralizing checkdowns

Game Script: Trailing Teams = TE Checkdowns

Tight end props are heavily influenced by game script.

Over Indicators:

• Trailing game script: If Patriots trail Denver 17-7, expect 8+ targets for Henry as Maye's safety valve
• Conservative offense: Run-heavy teams (Patriots, Seahawks) use TEs as checkdowns on 3rd-and-medium

Under Indicators:

• Blowout wins: If Rams lead Seattle 24-7, Higbee's volume collapses to <3 targets

The Bills vs. Broncos Divisional Round game showed similar TE prop value when checkdown-heavy offenses face elite pass rushes.

Shurzy Tip: When a QB is under pressure, he dumps it to the TE. Henry faces Denver's 68-sack pass rush. Maye will be checking down all game. Bet Over.

Super Bowl LX Red Zone Targets Projections

Most Likely Matchup: Seahawks vs. Patriots

• Hunter Henry: 48.5 yards (lean Over)
• AJ Barner: 32.5 yards (lean Under vs. Patriots' defense)

Sharpest bet: Henry Over 48.5 in a conservative Patriots game script where Henry sees 8+ targets.

Highest-Upside Matchup: Rams vs. Patriots

• Colby Parkinson: 28.5 yards (lean Over in a shootout)
• Hunter Henry: 52.5 yards (lean Over if game becomes high-scoring)

Sharpest bet: Henry Over 52.5 in a 31-28 thriller where both QBs lean on their TEs.

Final Thoughts

The four best tight end props for Championship Sunday are Hunter Henry Over 44.5 Receiving Yards, Colby Parkinson Over 24.5 Receiving Yards, AJ Barner Under 29.5 Receiving Yards, and Tyler Higbee Under 21.5 Receiving Yards - all backed by elite red-zone usage, coverage matchups, and sharp value.

For Super Bowl LX, expect similar inefficiencies across TE props, with red-zone target leaders offering the sharpest betting angles.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

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