NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Wide Receiver Props and Receiving Yard Bets

Wide receiver prop betting is the most volatile yet highest-upside player prop market in NFL playoffs. Target share, defensive matchups, and game script create dramatic swings between elite performances (Puka Nacua's 225 yards in Week 16) and complete disappearing acts. For Super Bowl LX, the Conference Championship matchups feature contrasting profiles: Puka Nacua's explosive ceiling vs. Seattle's pass defense, Jaxon Smith-Njigba's elite consistency, Davante Adams' red-zone dominance, and Stefon Diggs' veteran savvy. This is your guide to cashing receiving yards bets on Championship Sunday.

February 9, 2026

Best Super Bowl WR Props for Conference Championship Sunday

Best Bet #1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 88.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Game: Seahawks vs. Rams
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has destroyed the Rams in 2025, recording 201 combined receiving yards across two regular-season meetings (105 yards in Week 11, 96 yards in Week 16). Los Angeles' secondary ranks 24th in coverage grade and has allowed three 100-yard receiving performances in their last six games, creating structural advantages for JSN's elite route-running and yards-after-catch ability.

Why JSN crushes Over 88.5:

201 combined yards vs. Rams in 2 games (100.5 YPG average)
88.5-yard line is 14.4 yards below Covers.com projection (102.9 yards)
Rams deploy man coverage on 42% of snaps (JSN excels vs. man)
JSN averages 7.2 yards after catch vs. man (3rd among WRs with 80+ receptions)
Playoff games where Darnold throws 35+ attempts: JSN averages 108.4 yards

Historical Context: In playoff games where Sam Darnold throws 35+ pass attempts, JSN averages 108.4 receiving yards - 19.9 yards above his prop line. With the Rams' defense forcing Seattle into pass-heavy game script (if trailing), JSN's volume should exceed 10 targets.

Betting Action:

Place 4-5 units on Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 88.5 Receiving Yards at -114 (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)
Consider the alternate total: JSN Over 100.5 Receiving Yards at +130 for 2-unit exposure

Projected Line: JSN 107 yards, 8 receptions, 1 TD - Crushes the Over

Shurzy Tip: When a receiver averages 100+ yards against a specific opponent and the line is set at 88.5, you're getting 12+ yards of free value. Hammer it.

Best Bet #2: Puka Nacua Under 92.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Game: Rams at Seahawks
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

Despite Puka Nacua's explosive 225-yard performance at Lumen Field in Week 16, he has gone Under 92.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games, including a 56-yard dud vs. Chicago in the Divisional Round. Seattle's #2-ranked pass defense (15.7 PPG allowed) held Nacua to just 75 yards in Week 11, demonstrating structural capability to limit elite receivers.

Why Nacua stays Under 92.5:

Under in 3 of last 4 games (56 yards vs. Chicago)
75 yards vs. Seattle in Week 11 (8.3 YPC, no explosive plays)
Road splits: 12.8 fewer yards per game away (83.4 YPG) vs. home (96.2 YPG)
Seattle deploys bracket coverage on opposing WR1s
FanDuel projects Nacua for 83 yards (Under 91.5)

Key Edge: Nacua has averaged 12.8 fewer receiving yards per game on the road (83.4 YPG away vs. 96.2 YPG at home), and Lumen Field's hostile environment creates pre-snap communication challenges. Seattle's defense has held opponents to fewer than 150 passing yards in their last three games.

The Rams vs. Panthers Wild Card game showed similar WR Under value when elite receivers face top-tier secondaries in hostile road environments.

Betting Action:

Place 4-5 units on Puka Nacua Under 92.5 Receiving Yards at -114 (DraftKings, FanDuel)

Projected Line: Nacua 81 yards, 6 receptions - Hits the Under

Shurzy Tip: Road/home splits matter for WRs. Nacua averages 13 fewer yards per game on the road. Seattle is loud, physical, and ready. Bet Under.

Best Bet #3: Davante Adams Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Game: Rams at Seahawks
Confidence: High (4 units)

Davante Adams has recorded 50+ receiving yards in 14 of 17 regular-season games and serves as Matthew Stafford's primary red-zone target (40% target share inside the 10-yard line). At 48.5 receiving yards, Adams needs just 4-5 receptions at 10 YPC to clear his line - well below his 6.8 receptions per game average.

Why Adams clears Over 48.5:

50+ receiving yards in 14 of 17 games
40% target share inside 10-yard line (Rams' primary red-zone weapon)
48.5-yard line is lowest among Rams WRs (floor play with minimal bust risk)
Seattle double-teams Nacua, leaving Adams in single coverage
ESPN projects Adams for 52 yards with +125 anytime TD odds

Betting Action:

Place 3-4 units on Davante Adams Over 48.5 Receiving Yards at -114 (DraftKings, BetMGM)

Projected Line: Adams 58 yards, 5 receptions, 1 TD - Clears the Over

Best Bet #4: Stefon Diggs Under 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Game: Patriots at Broncos
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

Stefon Diggs has gone Under his receiving yards line in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.55 units, 40% ROI), including both playoff games (31 yards vs. Chargers, 45 yards vs. Texans). Against Denver's elite cornerback Pat Surtain II (Defensive Player of the Year), Diggs faces the toughest matchup of his postseason run.

Why Diggs stays Under 47.5:

Under in 9 of last 12 games (+5.55 units, 40% ROI)
31 yards vs. Chargers, 45 yards vs. Texans in playoffs
Surtain shadow coverage: allows just 38.4 receiving yards per game
Patriots' run-heavy game script limits Maye's pass attempts to 25-28
BetMGM projects Diggs for just 41 yards

Key Edge: Denver deploys shadow coverage where Surtain follows the opposing WR1 on 87% of routes (2nd-highest in NFL), and Surtain has allowed just 38.4 receiving yards per game to shadow targets. The Patriots' run-heavy game script limits Drake Maye's pass attempts, suppressing Diggs' volume.

Betting Action:

Place 4-5 units on Stefon Diggs Under 47.5 Receiving Yards at -115 (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)

Projected Line: Diggs 39 yards, 4 receptions - Crushes the Under

Shurzy Tip: When a Defensive Player of the Year shadows a WR1, you bet Under. Every. Single. Time. Surtain locks receivers down. Diggs stays Under 47.5.

Best Bet #5: Courtland Sutton Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Game: Broncos vs. Patriots
Confidence: High (4 units)

When a backup QB gets thrown into the fire, he locks onto his top option - and Courtland Sutton fits the bill perfectly. Sutton saw nine targets vs. Buffalo in the Divisional Round and will serve as Jarrett Stidham's primary safety valve against a Patriots defense that ranks 23rd in red-zone TD prevention.

Why Sutton goes Over 50.5:

9 targets vs. Buffalo (Stidham's #1 option)
50.5-yard line requires just 4-5 receptions at 10 YPC
Patriots deploy zone coverage on 68% of snaps (Sutton excels in zone)
Sutton averages 8.1 yards after catch in zone (2nd among WRs with 60+ receptions)
BetMGM projects Sutton for 56 yards with +270 anytime TD odds

Betting Action:

Place 3-4 units on Courtland Sutton Over 50.5 Receiving Yards at -115 (DraftKings, BetMGM)

Projected Line: Sutton 61 yards, 6 receptions, 1 TD - Clears the Over

Advanced NFL Receiver Props Strategy

Target Share Is King

Sharp bettors prioritize wide receivers with 25%+ target share, as volume creates a statistical floor that minimizes bust risk.

High-Volume WRs:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 28.4% target share (leads NFL)
Puka Nacua: 26.1% target share (2nd on Rams)
Courtland Sutton: 24.7% target share (leads Broncos)

Coverage Matchups: Man vs. Zone

Use WR/CB matchup tools to identify whether the defense deploys man or zone coverage.

Over Indicators (Man Coverage):

Elite route-runners vs. man coverage: JSN averages 7.2 yards after catch vs. man (3rd in NFL)
Weak man corners: Rams' CB Cobie Durant allows 84.3 receiving yards per game in shadow coverage

Under Indicators (Zone Coverage):

Speed receivers vs. zone: Nacua's deep-threat ability is neutralized by Seattle's two-high safety shell (68% of snaps)

Game Script: Trailing Teams = Volume Boost

Receiving yards props are heavily influenced by game script.

Over Indicators:

Trailing game script: If Rams trail Seattle 17-7, expect 40+ pass attempts from Stafford
Shootout environment: If total exceeds 50, both JSN and Nacua should clear their lines

Under Indicators:

Blowout wins: If Seattle leads 24-7 at halftime, JSN's volume collapses to <6 targets

The Packers vs. Bears Wild Card breakdown showed exactly how game script dictates WR receiving yard outcomes in playoff games.

Shurzy Tip: If a team is trailing by 10+ in the 4th quarter, their WR1's volume explodes. If they're winning by 10+, volume dies. Game script is everything for WR props.

Super Bowl LX Receiving Yards Bets Projections

Most Likely Matchup: Seahawks vs. Patriots

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 98.5 yards (lean Over)
Stefon Diggs: 52.5 yards (lean Under vs. Seahawks' secondary)

Sharpest bet: JSN Over 98.5 if the Patriots establish an early lead.

Highest-Upside Matchup: Rams vs. Patriots

Puka Nacua: 105.5 yards (lean Over in a shootout)
Stefon Diggs: 58.5 yards (lean Over if game becomes high-scoring)

Sharpest bet: Nacua Over 105.5 in a 31-28 thriller.

Final Thoughts

The five best wide receiver props for Championship Sunday are Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 88.5 Receiving Yards, Puka Nacua Under 92.5 Receiving Yards, Davante Adams Over 48.5 Receiving Yards, Stefon Diggs Under 47.5 Receiving Yards, and Courtland Sutton Over 50.5 Receiving Yards - all backed by elite target share, coverage matchups, and sharp value.

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