NFL

NFL Playoff Anytime Touchdown Props: Best Anytime TD Bets

Anytime touchdown (ATD) props are the highest-variance, highest-entertainment player props in NFL betting. Unlike yardage or reception props that accumulate linearly, touchdowns are binary where either a player scores or doesn't, creating extreme boom-or-bust outcomes that recreational bettors chase and professionals exploit systematically. Here's the thing most casual bettors miss: you're going to lose about 70% of your anytime TD bets, but if you pick the right spots, you'll still make money. Professional bettor tracking for full 2024 season shows 123-269 record (31.4% hit rate) with +44.1 units profit for 11% ROI. That crushes spread betting ROI of 3-5% for sharp bettors, all because bookmakers

January 22, 2026

Red Zone Targets: The Foundation of TD Prediction

Here's your golden rule for NFL player props: 67-70% of all passing touchdowns come from inside the red zone (20-yard line to goal line), making red zone target share the single best predictor of anytime TD probability you'll find.

2025 Red Zone Leaders you need to know:

Wide Receivers:

Davante Adams (LAR): 32 RZ targets, 12 TDs, 58.2% RZ target share, 37.5% conversion rate
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET): 32 RZ targets, 10 TDs, 60.4% RZ target share, 31.3% conversion rate
Ja'Marr Chase (CIN): 21 RZ targets, 6 TDs, 47.7% RZ target share, 28.6% conversion rate

Tight Ends:

Trey McBride (ARI): 33 RZ targets, 11 TDs, 84.6% RZ target share, 33.3% conversion rate
Dallas Goedert (PHI): 15 RZ targets, 10 TDs, 93.8% RZ target share, 66.7% conversion rate
George Kittle (SF): 13 RZ targets, 6 TDs, 54.2% RZ target share, 46.2% conversion rate

Running Backs:

Kyren Williams (LAR): 54 RZ carries, 11 TDs, 82% goal-line share, 20.4% conversion rate
Derrick Henry (BAL): 48 RZ carries, 9 TDs, 76% goal-line share, 18.8% conversion rate
Saquon Barkley (PHI): 51 RZ carries, 10 TDs, 79% goal-line share, 19.6% conversion rate

Key finding: Davante Adams (32 RZ targets, 12 TDs) is your elite NFL playoff pick for ATD bets where his 58.2% RZ target share means he's involved in 6 out of 10 red zone plays. At +500 Super Bowl ATD odds (20% implied probability), his true probability is approximately 35-40%, creating massive positive expected value. For more on finding value, check out NFL prop betting guide.

Shurzy Tip: If a player doesn't have 15+ red zone targets, you're basically guessing. Skip it and find better spots.

Team Red Zone Efficiency: The Multiplier Effect

Even elite red zone targets don't score TDs if their offense can't convert, making team red zone TD percentage your second most important factor for NFL playoff betting.

2025 Team Red Zone TD Conversion Rates (Top tier):

Philadelphia Eagles: 70.45% (Elite - boost WR and TE ATD confidence heavily)
Cincinnati Bengals: 66.67% (Elite - boost Chase ATD significantly)
Buffalo Bills: 66.15% (Elite - boost Cook and Samuel ATD)
San Francisco 49ers: 65.15% (High - boost McCaffrey and Kittle)
LA Rams: 63.16% (High - boost Adams and Nacua ATD)
Detroit Lions: 62.50% (High - boost St. Brown and Gibbs)

2025 Team Red Zone TD Conversion Rates (Bottom tier to avoid):

New Orleans Saints: 44.44% (Avoid - fade all Saints ATD props completely)
NY Jets: 44.74% (Avoid - fade all Jets ATD props)
Houston Texans: 46.30% (Weak - fade Diggs and Stroud ATD unless serious value)
Baltimore Ravens: 47.46% (Weak - surprising, fade Henry slightly)
LA Chargers: 47.37% (Weak - be cautious on all Chargers ATD)

Application to Wild Card: Davante Adams over +500 ATD (Rams 63.16% RZ efficiency) means elite target volume (32 RZ) plus above-average RZ efficiency creates STRONG 0.5-unit play. Stefon Diggs ATD (Texans 46.30% RZ efficiency) means moderate target volume (18 RZ) plus poor RZ efficiency creates FADE (skip or take alternate player). For understanding team efficiency in NFL betting spreads, see NFL point spread predictions.

Opponent Red Zone Defense: The Suppression Factor

Elite red zone defenses prevent TDs even when opponents reach the 20-yard line, so you need to factor this into every NFL playoff odds calculation.

2025 Opponent Red Zone TD% Allowed (Best Defenses to fade against):

Denver Broncos: 42.55% (Elite - suppress all ATD props significantly)
Minnesota Vikings: 42.86% (Elite - suppress all ATD props)
LA Rams: 46.15% (Strong - suppress most ATD props)
Seattle Seahawks: 50.00% (Good - slight suppression)

2025 Opponent Red Zone TD% Allowed (Worst Defenses to target):

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 69.77% (Terrible - boost all ATD props heavily)
Washington: 67.74% (Terrible - boost all ATD props)
New England Patriots: 67.50% (Terrible - boost all ATD props)
Dallas Cowboys: 66.67% (Terrible - boost all ATD props)

Wild Card application: Josh Allen ATD (Bills vs Jaguars where JAX allows 59.57% RZ TDs) means mid-tier RZ defense plus Allen elite goal-line threat creates 1-unit play at +800-1000. Christian McCaffrey ATD (49ers at Eagles where PHI allows 53.06% RZ TDs) means good RZ defense suppresses slightly but CMC volume overcomes for 0.5-unit play at +200.

Shurzy Tip: When red zone defense allows 65%+ TDs, that's your green light to load ATD props on opposing players.

Position-Specific ATD Strategy for NFL Over Under Betting

Different positions have completely different TD profiles, so you need position-specific strategies.

Running Backs: Volume Plus Goal-Line Role - RBs are your safest ATD bets (lowest variance) because they have higher TD conversion rates (18-22% versus 28-35% for WRs), goal-line carries are predictable (scheme-driven), and they get multiple scoring opportunities per game. Your RB ATD threshold is target RBs with 8+ goal-line carries and 60%+ goal-line snap share.

Strong RB ATD plays (Wild Card):

Kyren Williams ATD -145 (Rams at Panthers, 54 RZ carries, 11 TDs, Panthers allow 55.17% RZ TDs): Elite volume plus favorable matchup equals 1.5-unit play
Saquon Barkley ATD +110 (Eagles vs 49ers, 51 RZ carries, 10 TDs, 49ers allow 53.85% RZ TDs): Elite volume where Eagles 70.45% RZ efficiency equals 1-unit play
James Cook ATD -140 (Bills vs Jaguars, high-scoring game projected, Bills 66.15% RZ efficiency): Elite offense plus volume equals 1-unit play

Wide Receivers: Target Share Plus Matchup - WRs are moderate-variance ATD bets because they have higher conversion rates (28-38%) but fewer total opportunities, defensive coverage matters (shadow coverage suppresses WR1s), and they're game script dependent (trailing teams throw more in RZ). Your WR ATD threshold is target WRs with 15+ RZ targets and 50%+ RZ target share. For more WR analysis, see NFL playoff best bets.

Strong WR ATD plays (Wild Card):

Davante Adams ATD +500 (Rams at Panthers, 32 RZ targets, 12 TDs, 58.2% RZ target share): Elite 0.5-unit value play where at +500 implied probability is 16.7% but true probability approximately 35-40% (Adams scores every 2.7 games) creating massive positive expected value
Amon-Ra St. Brown ATD +200 (Lions playoff game, 32 RZ targets, 10 TDs, 60.4% RZ target share): Elite volume where Lions 62.50% RZ efficiency equals 0.5-unit play

Tight Ends: The Best ATD Value - TEs are your best ATD value bets because they have elite conversion rates (33-67% for top TEs like Goedert and Kittle), consistent RZ targets (6-8 per game for elite TEs), and bookmakers underprice TE ATD odds versus WRs (TE +300 versus WR +250 for same RZ target volume). Your TE ATD threshold is target TEs with 12+ RZ targets and 70%+ RZ target share.

Strong TE ATD plays (Wild Card):

George Kittle ATD +300-350 (49ers at Eagles, 13 RZ targets, 6 TDs, 54.2% RZ target share, 46.2% conversion rate): 1-unit value play where at +300 implied probability 25% but true probability approximately 35-40% creating elite value
Dallas Goedert ATD +200-250 (Eagles vs 49ers, 15 RZ targets, 10 TDs, 93.8% RZ target share, 66.7% conversion rate): Elite 1-unit play where Goedert converts 2 out of 3 RZ targets into TDs and Eagles 70.45% RZ efficiency makes this steal

QB ATD Props: The Longshot Value - QBs score TDs via rushing (goal-line sneaks, designed runs) where QB rushing TDs are 5-8% of all TDs. Your QB ATD threshold is only bet mobile QBs with 3+ goal-line rushing TDs in regular season. For QB strategies, check NFL moneyline bets explained.

Strong QB ATD plays (Wild Card):

Josh Allen ATD +800-1000 (Bills vs Jaguars, Allen had 8 rushing TDs in 2025, elite goal-line threat): 0.3-unit value play where at +800 implied probability 11.1% but true probability approximately 15-18% (scores every 5-6 games)
Jalen Hurts ATD +1100 (Eagles vs 49ers, Hurts had 12 rushing TDs in 2025, elite goal-line QB): 0.2-unit value play

Professional ATD Betting Framework

Master this three-factor model for every NFL playoff pick on touchdown props:

Factor 1: Red Zone Target Volume (50% weight) - Elite shows 20+ RZ targets (1.5x confidence), High shows 15-20 RZ targets (1x confidence), Moderate shows 10-15 RZ targets (0.5x confidence), Low shows under 10 RZ targets (skip entirely).

Factor 2: Team RZ Efficiency (30% weight) - Elite shows 65%+ RZ TD percentage (boost ATD confidence), Good shows 55-65% RZ TD percentage (neutral), Poor shows under 55% RZ TD percentage (fade ATD).

Factor 3: Opponent RZ Defense (20% weight) - Terrible shows 65%+ allowed (boost ATD), Poor shows 55-65% allowed (neutral), Elite shows under 50% allowed (fade ATD).

Example calculation (Davante Adams ATD +500): Factor 1 with 32 RZ targets (elite, 1.5x weight) equals 50% times 1.5 equals 75 points. Factor 2 with Rams 63.16% RZ efficiency (good) equals 30% times 1.0 equals 30 points. Factor 3 with Panthers 55.17% RZ defense (poor) equals 20% times 1.0 equals 20 points. Total score 125 points where anything over 100 equals strong play. At +500 odds (16.7% implied), Adams' true probability approximately 35-40% (model suggests 125 divided by 100 equals 1.25x baseline equals approximately 31% minimum), creating strong positive expected value for 0.5-unit play.

ATD Bankroll Management for NFL Playoff Betting

ATD props are longshots, so you need to treat them differently from spread and total bets for proper NFL over under betting discipline.

Unit sizing you should follow:

Elite plays (RBs, elite TEs): 1-1.5 units maximum
Strong value (WRs, secondary TEs): 0.5-1 unit
Longshots (QBs, backup players): 0.2-0.3 units maximum

Weekly limits: No more than 5-8 ATD bets per Wild Card weekend where total 5-10 units deployed across all ATD props.

Why conservative sizing matters: 31.4% hit rate means you lose 7 out of 10 bets, so small unit sizes plus selective high-value plays equals 11% ROI over season. For bankroll strategies, see NFL parlay bets explained.

Final Thoughts: Red Zone Data Beats Star Names

The biggest mistake you'll make on anytime TD props is betting star names without checking red zone targets. You see Patrick Mahomes or Justin Jefferson and automatically bet their TD prop without looking at whether they actually get red zone opportunities.

Red zone target volume is everything for touchdown props. A talented WR with 10 red zone targets loses to an average WR with 25 red zone targets every single time because volume beats talent when it comes to scoring. Focus on red zone data, verify team efficiency, adjust for opponent defense, and bet only when your three-factor model shows 100+ points.

Start with red zone targets (50% weight), factor in team efficiency (30% weight), adjust for opponent defense (20% weight), and bet only when mathematical edge exceeds 3-5% after all adjustments. Skip props where red zone volume is under 15 targets or where team efficiency is below 50%.

Shurzy Tip: Print the three-factor model and calculate it for every TD prop before betting. It removes emotional decisions and enforces mathematical discipline that wins long-term.

Read more: NFL Futures Betting Explained

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