NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Best Bets to Make This Year

Super Bowl LX is two weeks away, and the betting board is stacked with value if you know where to look. The Seattle Seahawks (+145-155), Los Angeles Rams (+225), New England Patriots (+260), and Denver Broncos (+1000-1300) are all still alive, which means futures, spreads, totals, and props are all in play. Here are the sharpest bets you should be making right now.

February 9, 2026

Best Futures Bet: Rams +225

The Rams are sitting at +225 to win Super Bowl LX, and that number is absurd given their profile. They're running the #1 offense in the NFL (30.5 PPG, 375.5 YPG), Matthew Stafford just won regular-season MVP, and they've gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings against Seattle.

Oh, and 74% of the public is betting on the Seahawks in the NFC Championship, yet the line hasn't budged from -2.5. That's reverse line movement, baby. Sharp money is all over the Rams.

Why Rams +225 is the play:

#1 offense in the NFL with MVP quarterback Matthew Stafford
8-2 ATS record vs. Seattle in last 10 meetings
Reverse line movement despite 74% public money on Seahawks
If they win NFC Championship, odds drop to +160-180 (you lock in 40-50 cents of value)
Elite receiving corps with Puka Nacua (1,242 yards) and Davante Adams (12 TDs)

Here's the play: Drop 2-3 units on Rams +225 right now. If they beat Seattle in the NFC Championship, their Super Bowl odds will drop to +160-180. You'll have locked in 40-50 cents of closing line value before the game even starts.

And if they lose? You're only down 2-3 units. But if they win it all? You're cashing a ticket that's worth way more than it should be.

Best Spread Bet: Broncos +4.5 vs. Patriots

The Denver Broncos opened as +5.5 underdogs in the AFC Championship, but sharp money has pushed the line down to +3.5 / +4.5 despite 71% of public bets on New England. That's your signal.

Yes, Jarrett Stidham is starting at QB after Bo Nix's injury. Yes, he hasn't thrown a pass since 2024. But here's what the market is missing.

Why Broncos +4.5 covers:

Denver's defense is elite. They rank 2nd in scoring defense (18.3 PPG allowed) and 1st in sacks (68). They're going to make Drake Maye uncomfortable all game long.

Home underdogs in AFC Championship Games are 6-2 ATS since 2010. Mile High Stadium is a nightmare for road favorites, and the altitude advantage is real.

The line moved the wrong way. The market overreacted to Stidham by 2.65 points, creating value for contrarian bettors.

Denver is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games as underdogs, winning outright in most of them.

Similar dynamics played out when the Bills faced the Broncos in the Divisional Round. Everyone loved Buffalo, but sharp bettors saw a Denver defense that could keep it close.

The bet: Broncos +4.5 (-110), 4-5 units. This is a maximum-confidence play.

Best Total Bet: Under 46.5 (Rams vs. Seahawks)

The NFC Championship total opened at 47.5, and sharp bettors are quietly hammering the Under.

Here's why: Seattle's defense is legit. They've allowed fewer than 20 points in 11 of 17 games this season, and their 15.7 PPG allowed ranks 2nd in the NFL. The Rams' defense isn't slouching either - they rank 10th in opponent PPG (20.4) with a +11 turnover margin.

Yeah, these two teams put up 38 and 37 points in Week 16. But that was an overtime thriller in the regular season. Playoff football is different. Tighter schemes, more conservative play-calling, and defenses that have had two weeks to prepare.

Why Under 46.5 hits:

Seattle's defense has allowed fewer than 20 points in 11 of 17 games
Rams' defense ranks 10th in scoring defense with a +11 turnover margin
Playoff totals above 47 in outdoor games historically go Under at 65-70%
Divisional rematches breed familiarity and conservative game plans
Both teams have elite defensive coordinators who've had two weeks to prepare

Playoff totals above 47 in outdoor games have historically gone Under at a 65-70% clip, especially in divisional rematches where familiarity breeds caution.

The Rams vs. Bears Divisional Round game showed how playoff intensity suppresses scoring. The total opened at 44.5 and barely scraped over in overtime.

The bet: Under 46.5 (-110), 3-4 units.

Best Prop Bet: Sam Darnold Over 255.5 Passing Yards

If the Seahawks reach the Super Bowl, Sam Darnold is going to air it out. He's averaged 287.4 passing yards per game this season and threw for 380 yards against the 49ers in the Divisional Round.

The Patriots' secondary ranks 3rd in pass defense (220.6 YPG allowed), but playoff intensity forces conservative defenses into man coverage, opening up vertical passing lanes. Darnold's playoff passer rating (110.9) is the highest among remaining QBs, and his top target, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, averages 15.2 yards per reception in the playoffs.

If Seattle is trailing late, Darnold will be slinging it 35-40 times. That's an easy path to 270+ yards.

Why Darnold goes Over:

Averaged 287.4 passing yards per game in regular season
Threw for 380 yards vs. 49ers in Divisional Round
Playoff passer rating of 110.9 (highest among remaining QBs)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba averaging 15.2 yards per reception in playoffs
Seahawks will need to pass to keep up with elite offenses

The bet: Darnold Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-110), 2-3 units.

Best Anytime TD Prop: Colby Parkinson +320

Colby Parkinson is a red-zone weapon who's flying under the radar. He caught 5 passes for 90 yards and a TD against the Bears in the Divisional Round, and Seattle's defense has shown vulnerability against tight ends.

At +320 odds (23.8% implied probability), Parkinson offers massive value as a secondary scoring option behind Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. The Rams' red-zone TD rate (62%) is top-5 in the NFL, and Matthew Stafford has a history of targeting tight ends in high-leverage situations.

Why Parkinson scores:

Caught 5 passes for 90 yards and 1 TD vs. Bears in Divisional Round
Seattle's defense ranks middle-of-the-pack against tight ends
Rams' red-zone TD rate of 62% is top-5 in NFL
Stafford targets tight ends in high-leverage situations
+320 odds offer 3.2x payout on a realistic outcome

The bet: Colby Parkinson Anytime TD +320, 1-2 units.

Best Correlated Parlay: Rams +2.5 & Under 46.5

Correlated parlays are where sharps make their biggest edges because they exploit market inefficiencies between related outcomes.

If the Rams cover +2.5, it likely means the game stayed close and low-scoring. If the game goes Under 46.5, it likely means both defenses dominated, which favors the underdog (Rams).

This two-leg parlay pays around +260 on most books, giving you 2.6x your stake if both hit. Compare that to betting each separately at -110, where you'd need to win both to profit 1.83x your stake.

Why this parlay works:

If Rams cover, the game likely stayed low-scoring (supports Under)
If game goes Under, defenses dominated (supports underdog covering)
Pays +260 vs. +183 if betting each leg separately
Removes one outcome that contradicts the other (Rams blowout win + Over)
Exploits market inefficiency in correlated outcomes

When the Rams faced the Bears in the Divisional Round, similar correlated logic applied. Low-scoring games favor the underdog, and sharp bettors cleaned up by pairing the spread with the Under.

The bet: Rams +2.5 & Under 46.5 (+260), 2 units.

Lottery Ticket Bet: Broncos +1000 to Win Super Bowl LX

Look, Jarrett Stidham starting a Super Bowl is a long shot. But at +1000-1300, the Broncos offer massive upside if they somehow pull off two upsets.

Denver's defense is good enough to win a 17-13 slugfest, and stranger things have happened. The 2017 Eagles won with Nick Foles. The 2007 Giants won with Eli Manning as a Wild Card. Backup QBs have Super Bowl rings.

This isn't a bet you load up on. It's a 0.25-0.5 unit sprinkle as insurance against a Seahawks-heavy portfolio. If it hits, you're looking at 10-13x your money. If it doesn't, you're out $25 on a $5,000 bankroll.

The bet: Broncos +1000, 0.5 units max.

The Broncos bye-week guide highlighted exactly why Denver's defense gives them a puncher's chance even with a backup QB.

Bankroll Strategy: How to Allocate Your Super Bowl Bets

Here's a sample allocation for a 100-unit ($5,000) bankroll:

Rams +225 futures: 2-3 units ($100-150)
Broncos +4.5 spread: 4-5 units ($200-250)
Under 46.5: 3-4 units ($150-200)
Darnold Over 255.5 passing yards: 2-3 units ($100-150)
Parkinson Anytime TD: 1-2 units ($50-100)
Rams/Under correlated parlay: 2 units ($100)
Broncos +1000 lottery ticket: 0.5 units ($25)

Total exposure: 15.5-19.5 units ($775-975), leaving 80+ units in reserve for live betting and adjustments.

This approach balances high-confidence edges (Broncos +4.5, Rams +225) with medium-confidence props and a speculative lottery ticket. Even if you go 3-for-7, you're likely still profitable because your biggest bets are on your strongest edges.