NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Best Player Prop Bets to Make

Player props are where sharp bettors find their biggest edges in NFL playoffs. Sportsbooks struggle to accurately price matchup advantages, game-script dynamics, and red-zone usage, creating exploitable value across quarterback passing yards, running back carries, and wide receiver targets. For Super Bowl LX, the path runs through Conference Championship Sunday, where over 300 player props will be available for the Big Game. Mastering these Championship Sunday props provides the blueprint for attacking Levi's Stadium betting boards on February 8, 2026. This is where the Super Bowl player props market separates sharp bettors from casual ones.

February 9, 2026

Best Super Bowl Player Props for Conference Championship Sunday

Best Prop Bet #1: Puka Nacua Over 92.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Game: Rams at Seahawks
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

Puka Nacua has destroyed the Seahawks in 2025, recording 300 combined receiving yards across two regular-season meetings, including a career-high 225 yards in Week 16. The Seahawks' pass defense ranks 13th in passing yards allowed per game (205.3 YPG) and middle-of-the-pack in coverage grades, creating structural mismatches for Nacua's elite route-running and yards-after-catch ability.

Why Nacua crushes Over 92.5:

300 combined yards vs. Seattle in 2 games (150 YPG average)
Double-digit targets in each of last 7 games (10.8 targets per game)
Seattle allowed three 100-yard receiving performances in last 5 games
Nacua's 150+ air yards per game ranks 3rd among WRs
Rams' #1 offense (375.5 YPG) creates pass-heavy game script

Historical Context: In Week 16 at Lumen Field, Nacua posted 225 yards on 9 receptions, proving that Seattle's secondary cannot contain elite route-runners in man coverage. His 12.5 targets per game against Seattle signals volume-driven upside that the 92.5 line severely undervalues.

Betting Action:

Place 4-5 units on Puka Nacua Over 92.5 Receiving Yards at -114 (DraftKings, FanDuel)
Consider a 2-leg correlated parlay: Nacua Over 92.5 + Stafford Over 251.5 Passing Yards at +245 odds

Projected Line: Nacua 112 yards, 8 receptions - Crushes the Over

Shurzy Tip: When a receiver averages 150 yards per game against a specific opponent and the prop is set at 92.5, you don't overthink it. You hammer it.

Best Prop Bet #2: TreVeyon Henderson Over 9.5 Carries (+118)

Game: Patriots at Broncos
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

The Patriots' rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson has received double-digit carries in 10 of his last 12 games and compiled 50 more rushing attempts than Rhamondre Stevenson during the regular season, establishing himself as New England's primary early-down back.

Against Denver's #2-ranked scoring defense (18.3 PPG allowed), the Patriots will deploy a run-heavy, clock-control game script designed to neutralize the Broncos' 68-sack pass rush (1st in NFL).

Why Henderson goes Over 9.5 carries:

Double-digit carries in 10 of last 12 games
50 more rushing attempts than Stevenson during regular season
Denver allowed 183 rushing yards to Buffalo (most all season)
Henderson's 5.1 YPC (tied for 3rd among RBs) shows elite efficiency
Patriots' conservative game plan prioritizes run to protect Maye

Key Edge: Denver allowed RB James Cook 117 yards on 22 carries in the Divisional Round, demonstrating vulnerability against elite rushing attacks. Henderson's prop at 9.5 carries offers a 3.4-carry cushion, making this a high-probability Over.

The Chargers vs. Patriots Wild Card game showed exactly how New England leans on the run in playoff road games.

Betting Action:

Place 4-5 units on TreVeyon Henderson Over 9.5 Carries at +118 (DraftKings, BetMGM)
Avoid the Under 33.5 Rushing Yards prop, as Henderson's big-play ability (5.1 YPC) creates variance

Projected Line: Henderson 13 carries, 58 yards - Crushes the Over

Shurzy Tip: When you're getting plus money (+118) on a prop where the player has hit double-digit carries in 10 of 12 games, you take it. Every time.

Best Prop Bet #3: Sam Darnold Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-125)

Game: Rams at Seahawks
Confidence: High (4 units)

Sam Darnold has gone Under 1.5 passing touchdowns in 4 of his last 5 games and recorded just 1 passing TD vs. the Rams in Week 11 (his 4-interception disaster). The Rams' defense ranks 4th in pressure rate (42.3%) and has forced Darnold into 6 interceptions across two 2025 meetings, demonstrating structural dominance over Seattle's QB.

Why Darnold stays Under 1.5 TDs:

Under 1.5 passing TDs in 4 of last 5 games
Just 1 TD vs. Rams in Week 11 (4 INTs, 19-for-38, 185 yards)
Rams' 4th-ranked pressure rate (42.3%) forces mistakes
Seahawks' run-heavy identity (Walker averages 23.1 carries per game)
Playoff intensity suppresses TD passing (1.3 TDs per game avg vs. 1.8 regular season)

Historical Context: Darnold's 1.7 projected passing TDs falls 0.2 TDs below the 1.5 threshold, creating a statistical edge on the Under. The Seahawks' run-heavy identity limits Darnold's red-zone passing attempts, with Kenneth Walker III dominating goal-line touches.

Betting Action:

Place 3-4 units on Sam Darnold Under 1.5 Passing TDs at -125 (BetMGM, FanDuel)

Projected Line: Darnold 1 passing TD, 241 yards - Hits the Under

Shurzy Tip: Passing TD props are all about red-zone usage. If the team runs it in at the goal line, the QB doesn't score. Seattle runs it in. Darnold stays Under.

Best Prop Bet #4: Kenneth Walker III Anytime Touchdown (+170)

Game: Rams at Seahawks
Confidence: High (3-4 units)

Kenneth Walker III is the betting favorite to score a touchdown in Super Bowl LX at +170, reflecting his elite red-zone usage (21.4 longest rush average, 12 TDs in last 10 games). With backup Zach Charbonnet ruled out for the season with a torn ACL, Walker will dominate backfield touches (projected 23+ carries) and serve as Seattle's primary goal-line weapon.

Why Walker cashes +170:

12 TDs in last 10 games (80% scoring rate)
Scored in both 2025 meetings vs. Rams (1 TD each game)
23.1 carries per game in last 10 shows volume
Rams' middle-of-the-pack rush defense (112 YPG allowed)
+170 odds = 37% implied probability vs. 60-70% true probability

Key Edge: At +170 odds (implied probability: 37.0%), bettors need Walker to score in just 1 of 3 games to break even long-term. His 12 TDs in 10 games (80% scoring rate) suggests a true 60-70% probability, creating massive value.

Betting Action:

Place 2-3 units on Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD at +170 (DraftKings, FanDuel)
Sprinkle 0.5-1 unit on Walker First TD +700 for lottery-ticket upside

Projected Line: Walker 87 yards, 1 TD - Cashes +170

Shurzy Tip: Anytime TD props are about volume and goal-line usage. Walker gets 23+ carries and all the red-zone work. At +170, this is a steal.

Best Prop Bet #5: Matthew Stafford Over 251.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Game: Rams at Seahawks
Confidence: High (4 units)

Matthew Stafford has hit the Passing Yards Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+4.10 units, 19% ROI) and threw for 457 yards at Lumen Field in Week 16, exploiting Seattle's middle-of-the-pack pass defense. The Seahawks rank 13th in passing yards allowed (205.3 YPG) and 16th in opponent pass play percentage, creating structural advantages for the Rams' #1-ranked passing attack.

Why Stafford goes Over 251.5:

Over in 12 of last 19 games (+4.10 units, 19% ROI)
457 yards at Lumen Field in Week 16
Rams' pass-heavy identity (37.5 pass attempts per game)
Trailing game script (if Seattle leads early) boosts volume
251.5 line is 36 yards below his 287.4 YPG average vs. Seattle

Historical Context: In playoff games where Stafford faces a top-10 scoring defense (Seattle: 2nd, 15.7 PPG allowed), he averages 278.4 passing yards - 26.9 yards above his prop line.

The Packers vs. Bears Wild Card game showed similar QB passing yard value when elite passers face defenses they've already torched.

Betting Action:

Place 3-4 units on Matthew Stafford Over 251.5 Passing Yards at -115 (DraftKings, FanDuel)

Projected Line: Stafford 298 yards, 2 TDs - Crushes the Over

Shurzy Tip: When an MVP QB is averaging 287 yards per game against a specific opponent and the line is set at 251.5, the sportsbook is giving you free money. Take it.

Super Bowl LX Player Prop Projections

Most Likely Matchup: Seahawks vs. Patriots

If both favorites win, expect Sam Darnold (+250) and Drake Maye (+280) to headline Super Bowl MVP odds, with Kenneth Walker III (+170) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+250) leading anytime touchdown markets.

Sharpest props:

Drake Maye Over 224.5 Passing Yards (Maye has hit Over in 14 of last 19 games)
Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD +170 (best value among RBs)
Stefon Diggs Anytime TD +350 (Patriots' red-zone weapon)

Highest-Upside Matchup: Rams vs. Patriots

A Rams-Patriots Super Bowl would create the highest-scoring prop environment, with Matthew Stafford (+300) and Drake Maye (+280) as co-MVP favorites and Puka Nacua (+1700) offering long-shot MVP value.

Sharpest props:

Puka Nacua Over 105.5 Receiving Yards (averages 125.8 YPG, clears 100+ in 75% of games)
Matthew Stafford Over 2.5 Passing TDs (Over in 12 of last 18 games)

Key NFL Prop Bets Strategy: When to Bet Overs vs. Unders

Sharp Bettors Lean Overs When:

Player faces historically weak matchup (Nacua vs. SEA: 300 yards in 2 games)
Volume is guaranteed (Henderson: 10+ carries in 10 of 12 games)
Game script favors player's role (Stafford in trailing game script means pass-heavy)

Sharp Bettors Lean Unders When:

Player struggles vs. opponent (Darnold: 1 TD, 4 INTs vs. LAR in Week 11)
Playoff intensity suppresses stats (Passing TDs drop 28% in playoffs)
Backup QB or injury uncertainty creates conservative game plan

The Texans vs. Steelers Wild Card breakdown showed exactly how to exploit player prop inefficiencies in playoff matchups.

Shurzy Tip: The best player props aren't about predicting stats. They're about finding lines that are 20-30% off from what the player actually averages in similar situations. Nacua averages 150 yards vs. Seattle but the line is 92.5? That's not a bet. That's a gift.

Final Thoughts: Super Bowl Player Props Are Where Sharps Eat

The five best Super Bowl betting props for Championship Sunday are Puka Nacua Over 92.5 Receiving Yards, TreVeyon Henderson Over 9.5 Carries, Sam Darnold Under 1.5 Passing TDs, Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD (+170), and Matthew Stafford Over 251.5 Passing Yards - all backed by elite matchup data, historical trends, and sharp betting value.

For Super Bowl LX, expect similar inefficiencies across MVP odds, anytime touchdown markets, and quarterback passing props. The key is betting early to lock in the best numbers before sharp money moves the line.

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