Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Offensive Line vs Defensive Line Matchups

Why OL vs DL Matters So Much for Betting

Line play has direct, measurable effects:

ESPN's pass block / pass rush win rates show how often linemen win within 2.5 seconds. Small differences correlate strongly with sack rate and offensive efficiency.

A 10-point gap in team pass block vs pass rush win rate can swing sack expectations by ~1-1.5 per game, which impacts QB yardage, INT odds, drive success, and scoring pace.

In close spread games like anticipated Super Bowl matchups, a single extra sack or strip-sack fumble can flip ATS and live markets.

Snapshot: The Four Lines Still Alive

Patriots OL vs Broncos DL

Patriots' OL has climbed from bottom of the league to fringe top-10, with their left tackle allowing pressure on just 6.3% of pass snaps (12th among LTs).

Denver's front has real teeth: their DL has been cited as the key matchup edge vs New England, able to create disruption even against improved protection.

Betting implications:

• Expect pressure but not a total mismatch. That supports Maye yardage Overs with elevated sack and turnover risk, rather than a total offensive collapse
• Sacks / QB hit props on the Broncos side make sense, but full Patriots team-total Unders need support from coverage and weather, not just line play

Broncos OL vs Patriots DL

Denver's offensive line strength is one reason to believe they can keep it close, even with a backup QB under center.

New England's defensive front has improved as key interior defenders returned from injury, but this is more a good-on-good matchup than a blatant mismatch.

Betting implications:

• Backup QB plus a competent OL often yields short-passing scripts: look at RB and TE receiving props rather than assuming instant disaster up front
• A solid OL reduces the ceiling on Patriots sack-ladder bets (e.g., 5+ sacks), even if they're favored to win

The Texans vs. Patriots Divisional Round game demonstrated how OL stability affects backup QB passing yards props.

Seahawks OL vs Rams DL

Seahawks' pass-blocking vulnerabilities, especially at right guard, face a Rams defense that ranks near the top of the league in pressure rate since Week 10.

The Rams use five-man fronts, slants, twists and simulated pressures to stress protections and specifically hunt weaknesses along Seattle's line.

Betting implications:

• This is a clear pass-rush mismatch in the Rams' favor
• Darnold sacks Over and possibly Rams defensive props (sacks, to record a sack first)
• Cautious expectations on deep Seattle passing; short-area targets and the run game (Walker) are safer props
• Supports INT and fumble-related turnover props, because pressure plus complex looks increases QB error rate

Rams OL vs Seahawks DL

Both units are described as "modern top-tier" in the run game: Seahawks stop the run with lighter boxes; Rams execute varied, sophisticated run concepts.

The Rams' offense leans on RG Kevin Dotson as "the engine" of their run game, helping relieve pressure on the OL and set up play-action shot plays.

Betting implications:

• Run game efficiency on both sides underpins Rams RB rushing and attempts Overs in neutral scripts
• Stafford play-action efficiency, supporting his passing-yards and explosive-pass props when protection holds up on early downs
• Seattle's defense can still generate strong pass rush out of light boxes, so respect sack/pressure props even when the Rams are running well

How to Turn Line Matchups into Bets

Sacks and QB Performance Props

Use OL vs DL edge first, then layer QB style:

Clear DL edge (Rams vs Seahawks' pass pro):

• Play QB Over sacks taken, consider Under on longest completion if pressure will cap time to throw
• Add small exposure to defensive TD or strip-sack fumble in games where pressure meets a volatile QB

Balanced trenches (Patriots vs Broncos):

• Expect pressure but not free runners; target Maye yardage with INT risk, not blanket Unders

Rushing Efficiency and Attempts

Run-block vs run-stop win rates matter when game script is forecast to be neutral or positive.

When both Rams OL and Seahawks front are strong vs run, books may set modest RB rushing lines. Your edge comes from volume (attempts) rather than outrageous YPC.

Where a team has a distinct trench edge in run blocking, you can confidently play:

• RB attempts + yards Overs together
• Team totals that assume sustained drives (more first downs, more red-zone trips)

Game Totals and Pace

Good pass protection vs weak rush: Increases likelihood of clean pockets, deeper drops, and successful explosives, all of which support Overs and big receiving props.

Dominant pass rush vs shaky OL: Leads to shorter fields (via sacks/turnovers) but also more stalled drives. Historically that has slightly favored Unders in tight playoff games, unless both sides are structurally pass-heavy.

The Bills vs. Broncos Divisional Round game showed exactly how elite pass rush affects QB props and team totals.

Best OL vs DL Matchup Bets for Championship Sunday

Best Trench Bet #1: Matthew Stafford Over 2.5 Sacks Taken (+110)

Game: Rams at Seahawks
Confidence: High (3-4 units)

With Rob Havenstein OUT (ankle fracture), backup Joe Noteboom (5 sacks allowed in 6 starts) downgrades pass protection. Seattle's defense averages 3.1 sacks/game (7th in NFL).

Key Edges:

• Stafford's sack rate jumps from 4.2% to 7.8% without Havenstein
• Seahawks' pass rush generates pressure on 38% of dropbacks
• Rams' five-man protection schemes struggle vs. Seattle's exotic fronts

Betting Action:

• Place 3-4 units on Stafford Over 2.5 Sacks Taken (+110)

Projected Outcome: Stafford takes 4 sacks - Crushes Over

Best Trench Bet #2: Kenneth Walker III Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Game: Seahawks vs. Rams
Confidence: Maximum (4-5 units)

Seattle's run-blocking excellence creates consistent 4-5 yard gains. Rams allow 112 rushing YPG (16th in NFL), with structural vulnerability to power concepts.

Key Edges:

• Seahawks' OL ranks 3rd in run-block win rate (74%)
• Walker averaged 116 yards vs. 49ers behind same OL
• Rams' lighter defensive front (nickel 68% of snaps) creates run lanes

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on Walker Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projected Outcome: Walker 94 yards - Clears Over

Best Trench Bet #3: Drake Maye Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Game: Patriots at Broncos
Confidence: Medium-High (3 units)

Despite Denver's 68-sack defense, Patriots' improved OL (left tackle allows pressure on just 6.3% of snaps) creates enough time for Maye to hit his prop.

Key Edges:

• Patriots' OL ranks 12th in pass-block win rate (improved from 28th early season)
• Maye averages 237.8 passing YPG when not pressured on >35% of dropbacks
• Denver's pressure rate is elite but not overwhelming vs. improved OL

Betting Action:

• Place 3 units on Maye Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Projected Outcome: Maye 241 yards - Clears Over

The Rams vs. Bears Divisional Round breakdown demonstrated how OL injuries cascade into sack props and QB performance.

Shurzy Tip: OL vs DL isn't sexy, but it's the foundation of everything. If a tackle is out and the backup allows pressure on 15% of snaps, every QB prop shifts. Track the trenches.

Super Bowl LX: How to Prepare Your Trench-Based Card

Once the exact pairing is set:

Check pass block / pass rush win rates from updated 2025 metrics.

Identify the single biggest mismatch (e.g., one side's RG vs elite 3-tech, or LT vs star edge).

Translate that mismatch into:

• Sacks and turnover props
• QB yardage and longest-completion props
• Run-game volume (if you expect one staff to hide its QB behind the OL)

In tight lines like a likely Seahawks/Rams or Seahawks/Patriots Super Bowl, understanding who is winning up front is often the difference between backing the right side at -3 and being stuck on the wrong QB under siege all night.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

‍