Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Red Zone Efficiency and Scoring Props

What Red Zone Efficiency Actually Measures

Most databases define red zone TD rate as touchdowns divided by drives that reach the opponent's 20-yard line.

Key benchmarks from 2025:

• The Rams rank 7th with a 64.29% red zone TD rate, well above league average (~55%)
• Seattle sits at 21st (55.38%), almost exactly league average but below the Rams
• Denver and New England are clustered around the middle: Broncos 20th (55.74%), Patriots 22nd (55.22%)

On defense, opponent red zone TD rate tells you how often a unit bends without breaking. League-average defenses allow TDs on about 55-57% of opponent red zone trips.

When a team is above average on offense and defense in the red zone, its scoring distribution tilts heavily toward TDs instead of FGs.

Connecting Red Zone Profiles to Scoring Props

Anytime TD Scorers

Red zone touch share is just as important as team-level efficiency.

For Denver and New England, non-QB red zone touches are heavily concentrated:

• Broncos: RJ Harvey (43), Courtland Sutton (19), Troy Franklin (17)
• Patriots: TreVeyon Henderson (41), Rhamondre Stevenson (32), Hunter Henry (22)

In a neutral or compressed scoring environment, those touches are your primary Anytime TD candidates.

Practical edges:

High team red zone TD rate + concentrated red zone usage → short Anytime TD prices that are still fair (e.g., a back with a 36.5% implied TD probability priced at +200 has a small edge if you make it closer to 40%).

Average or below-average TD rate + spread-around usage → fade short TD prices, take stabs at longer shots only if the role is growing (e.g., a TE whose route share has climbed into the 35-40% range in the playoffs).

The 49ers vs. Seahawks Divisional Round game demonstrated how red-zone touch share predicts anytime TD value.

FG vs TD Expectations (Kicker Props)

If a team reaches the red zone frequently but converts at only ~50-55% and faces a defense that stiffens inside the 20, you should tilt toward:

• Kicker scoring Overs (points or FGs made)
• Longest FG Over in good weather, because stalled drives create mid-range attempts

By contrast, when both teams are top-10 in red zone TD rate and play in perfect California weather, you can justify:

• Slight lean away from high FG volume
• More emphasis on TD-driven scoring distributions, including multi-TD scorer props for red-zone alphas

Shurzy Tip: Red zone efficiency tells you if you're betting a TD team or a FG team. Rams at 64% TD rate? Stack anytime TDs. Seahawks at 55%? Kicker props are live.

Red Zone + Game Script: Building a Scoring Narrative

Red zone efficiency doesn't exist in a vacuum - it interacts with game script.

Favorites with strong red zone TD rates are better candidates to cover alt spreads, because TD-heavy scoring makes each successful drive more "expensive" for the underdog to match.

Underdogs with good red zone TD rates but fewer total drives can still keep it close - and spike upset equity - by over-performing on those limited trips.

For Super Bowl scoring props:

If you project a relatively low-possession, run-leaning game, you want red zone killers, not volume-only options, in your TD portfolio.

In a high-tempo passing script, you can spread exposure more widely, but still anchor around players with proven red zone roles (e.g., a TE with 20+ red zone targets).

Best Red Zone Efficiency Bets for Championship Sunday

Best Red Zone Bet #1: Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+280)

Game: Patriots at Broncos
Confidence: Maximum (3-4 units)

Hunter Henry leads all AFC TEs with 21 red-zone targets (84.0% catch rate) and scored the first TD vs. Chargers in Wild Card Round.

Key Edges:

• 21 red-zone targets (1st among Championship Sunday TEs)
• Patriots target TEs on 42% of red-zone plays (2nd-highest in NFL)
• 55.22% red-zone TD rate creates FG-or-TD variance
• Denver ranks 13th in coverage grade vs. TEs

Betting Action:

• Place 3-4 units on Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+280)

Projected Outcome: Henry 51 yards, 1 TD - Cashes +280

Best Red Zone Bet #2: Jason Myers Over 8.5 Total Points (-120)

Game: Seahawks vs. Rams
Confidence: Maximum (4-5 units)

Seattle's 55.38% red-zone TD rate (21st in NFL) creates structural FG opportunities. Myers led the NFL with 43 field goals made during 2025 regular season.

Key Edges:

• 43 FGs made in 2025 (2nd-most in NFL)
• Seahawks settle for FGs on 44.62% of red-zone trips
• Rams' red-zone defense allows 62% TD rate (middle-of-pack)
• Myers recorded 9 total points vs. 49ers (3-for-3 FGs)

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on Jason Myers Over 8.5 Total Points (-120)

Projected Outcome: Myers 12 points (3 FGs, 3 XPs) - Crushes Over

Best Red Zone Bet #3: Colby Parkinson Anytime TD (+320)

Game: Rams at Seahawks
Confidence: High (2-3 units)

Parkinson scored in both 2025 regular-season meetings vs. Rams and recorded 5 receptions for 90 yards and 1 TD vs. Chicago in Divisional Round.

Key Edges:

• Scored in both 2025 meetings vs. Rams
• Rams' 64.29% red-zone TD rate (7th in NFL) creates TD-heavy scoring
• 18.0 yards per reception in playoffs (highest among all TEs with 5+ receptions)
• Seattle allowed 45.3 YPG to TEs

Betting Action:

• Place 2-3 units on Colby Parkinson Anytime TD (+320)

Projected Outcome: Parkinson 34 yards, 1 TD - Cashes +320

The Bills vs. Broncos Divisional Round breakdown showed how red-zone TD rates predict kicker vs touchdown scoring distributions.

How to Use the Numbers When the Matchup Is Set

Step 1: Grab Team Red Zone TD Rates (Offense and Defense)

If Team A is 64% (Rams-like) on offense and faces a defense allowing 58% TDs in the red zone, bump their team TD expectation up in your model.

If Team B is 55% on offense but faces a top-10 red zone defense, pull down both their team total and Anytime TD expectations.

Step 2: Overlay Player Red Zone Usage

Cross team-level rates with individual red zone touches and targets to identify who actually benefits from those efficient trips.

Treat "10+ red zone targets/touches and double-digit red zone TD rate" as the baseline for serious Anytime TD consideration in the Super Bowl.

Step 3: Choose Between TD-Heavy vs FG-Heavy Constructions

Two good red zone offenses → build around Anytime TDs, 2+ TD long shots, and TD-based same-game parlays.

One or both offenses mediocre in the red zone and facing stiff defenses → prefer kicker scoring Overs, longest FG Overs, and TD Unders on secondary weapons.

Step 4: Mind Price vs Probability

Use reported Anytime TD probabilities to check if the current SB market is off (e.g., +200 implying ~33.3% when true probability is 38%).

The Seahawks bye-week guide explained exactly how red-zone efficiency creates kicker prop value.

Shurzy Tip: Red zone TD rate is the difference between a 27-point performance and a 21-point performance. Same drives, different outcomes. That's your team total edge.

Super Bowl LX Red Zone Projections

Most Likely Matchup: Seahawks vs. Patriots

Red Zone Profile:

• Seahawks: 55.38% TD rate (average) vs. Patriots' defense
• Patriots: 55.22% TD rate vs. Seahawks' defense
• Projection: FG-heavy scoring, kicker props offer value

Sharpest bets: Myers Over 9.5 points, Borregales Over 7.5 points

Highest TD-Rate Matchup: Rams vs. Patriots

Red Zone Profile:

• Rams: 64.29% TD rate (7th in NFL) vs. Patriots' defense
• Patriots: 55.22% TD rate vs. Rams' defense
• Projection: TD-heavy Rams scoring, FG-based Patriots scoring

Sharpest bets: Davante Adams Anytime TD (+330), Harrison Mevis Under 6.5 points

Final Thoughts

Red zone efficiency is where box-score-level offense gets converted into actual betting edges: it tells you who is more likely to score touchdowns vs field goals, and which players are most likely to convert those trips.

For Super Bowl LX, build your scoring prop plan by starting with team red zone TD rates (offense + defense), mapping them to specific red zone touch/target leaders, and deciding whether the environment points to TD-centric scoring (stack Anytime TDs) or FG-centric scoring (attack kicker props).

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

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