Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Running Back Props and Rushing Yard Bets

Best Super Bowl RB Props for Conference Championship Sunday

Best Bet #1: Kenneth Walker III Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Game: Seahawks vs. Rams
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

Kenneth Walker III has destroyed volume expectations since backup Zach Charbonnet suffered a season-ending torn ACL in the Divisional Round, commanding a 100% backfield snap share and racking up 19 carries for 116 yards and 3 touchdowns vs. San Francisco.

With Charbonnet out for the NFC Championship Game, Walker projects for 23+ carries against a Rams defense that ranks 16th in rush defense (112 YPG allowed) and has surrendered 130+ rushing yards in 6 of its last 8 games.

Why Walker crushes Over 82.5:

• 6.1 yards per carry in playoffs (29% increase from regular season 4.7 YPC)
• 100% backfield snap share with Charbonnet out for season
• 23.1 carries per game average in last 10 games
• Rams allowed 130+ rushing yards in 6 of last 8 games
• 82.5 line needs just 17-18 carries at 4.7 YPC (well below projected 23+)

Historical Context: In the two 2025 regular-season matchups vs. the Rams, Walker averaged 83.5 rushing yards per game, with performances of 67 yards in Week 11 and 100 yards in Week 16. SportsLine projects Walker for 86 rushing yards, while ActionNetwork's expert model projects him at 91 yards (8.5 yards above his prop line).

The 49ers vs. Eagles Wild Card game showed similar RB rushing yard value when workhorse backs face vulnerable run defenses in playoff games.

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on Kenneth Walker III Over 82.5 Rushing Yards at -115 (DraftKings, FanDuel)
• Consider a 2-leg correlated parlay: Walker Over 82.5 + Anytime TD (+170) at +465 odds

Projected Line: Walker 94 yards, 1 TD on 24 carries - Crushes the Over

Shurzy Tip: When a workhorse RB has zero competition for carries and averages 23+ touches per game, you don't need advanced metrics. You just bet Over.

Best Bet #2: TreVeyon Henderson Over 9.5 Carries (+118)

Game: Patriots at Broncos
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

The Patriots' rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson has received double-digit carries in 10 of his last 12 games and compiled 50 more rushing attempts than Rhamondre Stevenson during the regular season, establishing himself as New England's primary early-down back.

Against Denver's #2-ranked scoring defense (18.3 PPG allowed), the Patriots will deploy a run-heavy, clock-control game script designed to neutralize the Broncos' 68-sack pass rush (1st in NFL).

Why Henderson goes Over 9.5 carries:

• Double-digit carries in 10 of last 12 games
• 50 more rushing attempts than Stevenson during regular season
• Denver allowed 183 rushing yards to Buffalo (most all season)
• Henderson's 5.1 YPC (tied for 3rd among RBs) shows elite efficiency
• Patriots' conservative game plan prioritizes run to protect Maye

Key Edge: Denver allowed RB James Cook 117 yards on 22 carries in the Divisional Round, demonstrating vulnerability against elite rushing attacks. Henderson's prop at 9.5 carries offers a 3.4-carry cushion, making this a high-probability Over.

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on TreVeyon Henderson Over 9.5 Carries at +118 (DraftKings, BetMGM)

Projected Line: Henderson 13 carries, 58 yards - Crushes the Over

Shurzy Tip: Plus money on a prop where the guy hits double digits in 10 of 12 games? That's not a bet. That's a gift.

Best Bet #3: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Game: Patriots at Broncos
Confidence: High (4 units)

Rhamondre Stevenson has gone Under his rushing yards line in 4 of his last 6 games, including both playoff games (31 yards vs. Chargers, 70 yards vs. Texans). Against Denver's #2-ranked scoring defense (18.3 PPG allowed) and elite run defense (allowed just 83 YPG since Week 10), Stevenson faces the toughest matchup of his postseason run.

Why Stevenson stays Under 50.5:

• Under in 4 of last 6 games (31 yards vs. Chargers, 70 vs. Texans)
• Denver allowed just 49 yards to De'Von Achane in Week 17
• Stevenson's 50.5-yard line vs. Denver's 83 YPG allowed since Week 10
• Patriots' pass-heavy game script (if trailing) limits carries to 12-14
• Denver ranks 14th in rush EPA since Week 10

Denver allowed just 49 yards to De'Von Achane (one of the NFL's most explosive backs) in Week 17, demonstrating structural dominance against lead backs. The Patriots' pass-heavy game script (if trailing) will limit Stevenson's volume to 12-14 carries, well below his 16-carry playoff average.

The Bills vs. Jaguars Wild Card breakdown showed similar RB Under value when elite defenses face physical running backs in playoff road games.

Betting Action:

• Place 3-4 units on Rhamondre Stevenson Under 50.5 Rushing Yards at -115 (DraftKings, FanDuel)

Projected Line: Stevenson 48 yards on 13 carries - Hits the Under

Best Bet #4: RJ Harvey Under 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Game: Broncos vs. Patriots
Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

RJ Harvey has gone Under his rushing yards line in 3 consecutive games, including a 20-yard dud vs. Buffalo in the Divisional Round despite facing the 29th-ranked rush defense. Against New England's rejuvenated run defense (ranked 10th in rush EPA since Week 11), Harvey faces the most hostile matchup of his rookie season.

Why Harvey stays Under 42.5:

• Under in 3 consecutive games (20 yards vs. Buffalo)
• 3.8 yards per carry ranks 42nd among 49 RBs with 100+ attempts
• 2nd-worst explosive run rate (10+ yard runs on just 8.4% of carries)
• Backup QB game script prioritizes checkdown passes over rushing volume
• BetMGM projects Harvey for just 6 carries

Key Edge: Harvey has cleared 42.5 rushing yards in just 7 of 14 games, with an average of 33 YPG in games with 11+ carries. Denver's backup-QB game script will prioritize checkdown passes to Harvey (averages 4.7 targets per game over last 6 games) rather than rushing volume, limiting his carry count to 8-10.

Betting Action:

• Place 4-5 units on RJ Harvey Under 42.5 Rushing Yards at -115 (DraftKings, BetMGM)
• Consider a 3-leg correlated parlay: Harvey Under 42.5 + Over 17.5 Receiving Yards + Stidham Over 198.5 Passing Yards at +410 odds

Projected Line: Harvey 33 rushing yards, 26 receiving yards - Crushes the Under

Shurzy Tip: When a backup QB starts, the RB's rushing volume tanks and receiving volume spikes. Bet Harvey Under rushing yards, Over receiving yards. Simple.

Advanced NFL Running Back Props Strategy

Volume Is King: Target 15+ Carry Backs

Sharp bettors prioritize running backs with 15+ projected carries, as volume creates a statistical floor that minimizes bust risk.

High-Volume Scenarios:

• Workhorse backs without competition: Kenneth Walker III (23+ carries with Charbonnet out)
• Run-heavy offenses: Seahawks average 32.4 rushing attempts per game (2nd in NFL)
• Trailing underdogs: If Denver leads New England, expect 20+ carries for Harvey in clock-control

Low-Volume Scenarios:

• Committee backfields: Patriots split carries 55-45 between Stevenson and Henderson
• Pass-heavy game scripts: If Patriots trail by 10+, Stevenson's carries drop to 8-10

Game Script: Leading Teams Run, Trailing Teams Pass

Running back rushing yards are heavily influenced by game script.

Over Indicators:

• Home favorites leading: If Seattle leads Rams 17-7 at halftime, expect 25+ carries for Walker
• Road underdogs keeping it close: If Denver trails 17-14 in 4th quarter, balanced play-calling sustains Harvey's volume

Under Indicators:

• Road favorites trailing: If Patriots trail 21-10, Stevenson's volume collapses to 8-10 carries
• Backup QB desperation: If Broncos trail by 14+ in 4th quarter, Harvey's rushing role evaporates

Yards Per Carry Matters

Sharp bettors favor backs with 4.5+ YPC in playoff matchups, as efficiency creates ceiling outcomes that exceed prop lines.

Elite Efficiency:

• Kenneth Walker III: 6.1 YPC in playoffs (29% increase from regular season)
• TreVeyon Henderson: 5.1 YPC (tied for 3rd among RBs)

Poor Efficiency:

• RJ Harvey: 3.8 YPC (42nd among 49 RBs with 100+ attempts)
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 3.9 YPC in playoffs (down from 4.2 regular-season average)

The Texans vs. Steelers Wild Card game showed exactly how RB efficiency metrics predict playoff rushing yard outcomes.

Shurzy Tip: YPC tells you everything. If a guy is averaging 6.1 yards per carry in the playoffs, bet Over. If he's at 3.8, bet Under. It's that simple.

Super Bowl LX Rushing Yards Bets Projections

Most Likely Matchup: Seahawks vs. Patriots

If both favorites win, expect Kenneth Walker III (+170 Anytime TD) vs. TreVeyon Henderson (+250) with rushing yard props around:

• Walker: 92.5 yards (lean Over with 100% backfield share)
• Henderson: 52.5 yards (lean Over if Patriots establish early lead)

Sharpest bet: Walker Over 92.5 in a Seattle-controlled game where the Seahawks run out the clock in the second half.

Highest-Upside Matchup: Rams vs. Patriots

A Rams-Patriots Super Bowl would feature Kyren Williams as the Rams' primary RB, with props around:

• Williams: 72.5 yards (lean Over in a shootout where Williams gets 18+ carries)
• Henderson: 58.5 yards (lean Over if game becomes high-scoring)

Sharpest bet: Williams Over 72.5 in a 31-28 thriller where the Rams lean on their run game to control clock.

Final Thoughts

The four best running back props for Championship Sunday are Kenneth Walker III Over 82.5 Rushing Yards, TreVeyon Henderson Over 9.5 Carries, Rhamondre Stevenson Under 50.5 Rushing Yards, and RJ Harvey Under 42.5 Rushing Yards - all backed by elite volume projections, game-script analysis, and sharp betting value.

For Super Bowl LX, expect similar inefficiencies across RB props, with Unders historically outperforming Overs due to defensive intensity and conservative play-calling.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

‍