NFL

Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Team Total Bets Explained

Team totals let you bet directly on how many points one team will score, without worrying about what the opponent does. They're one of the cleanest ways to express a Super Bowl game script in a single wager. For Super Bowl LX, team totals offer exceptional value when public bias inflates favorites or when specific offensive/defensive matchups create isolated scoring edges. This is your guide to exploiting team total inefficiencies on Championship Sunday.

February 9, 2026

What a Team Total Bet Is

A team total is an Over/Under on one team's points only.

Example structure: "Seahawks team total Over 26.5 (-110)" means you cash if Seattle scores 27+, regardless of the opponent's score.

Books usually hang full-game team totals plus sometimes 1H and 2H versions (e.g., Patriots 1H team total Over 10.5).

This is different from the main game total (combined points), and different from spread/ML, because you're isolating one offense vs the opposing defense.

How Sportsbooks Derive Team Totals

Most Super Bowl team totals come from three inputs:

Game spread (who's favored and by how much).

Game total (combined points line).

Implied score split from those two numbers.

Example: If the Super Bowl closes at Seahawks -3, total 48.5, the implied scores are roughly:

Seahawks: ~25.75
Opponent: ~22.75

Books then round to prices like Seahawks team total 26.5, Opponent 21.5 with juice adjustments around key numbers (17, 20, 24, 27).

If you think the market is right about who wins, but wrong about how many points that team scores, team totals are where you attack.

Why Team Totals Can Be Softer Than Game Totals

Three reasons they're often more exploitable:

You Can Be Wrong on the Opponent

You don't need to nail both offenses. If you project one team's offense/defense interaction especially well (e.g., Rams pass game vs a specific coverage shell), you can profit even if the other side surprises you.

Public Bias Shows Up Clearly

Public bettors like favorites and Overs. For a high-profile offense, you often see game total bet up and favorite's team total shaded higher (e.g., 27.5 instead of the "fair" 26.5). That can create automatic contrarian Under value on the public darling's team total.

Matchup Specifics Matter More

Team totals tie directly to things like red-zone efficiency, pace, and explosive play rate in one direction, which models can capture well.

The Broncos bye-week guide demonstrated exactly how team totals create value when backup QBs limit offensive ceiling.

Core Factors to Project Super Bowl Team Totals

When you build a number for each team, focus on:

Offensive efficiency: EPA/play, yards per play, red-zone TD rate, FG reliance.

Defensive profile on the other side: Points allowed, red-zone defense, pressure rate, coverage tendencies.

Pace and PROE (pass rate over expected): Faster/high-PROE teams create more possessions and higher ceilings, slower/run-heavy teams cap scoring.

Context variables:

Weather (wind, temp, rain) affects scoring more than most casual models account for
Injuries (losing a tackle, WR1, or pass-rush star) can shift your projection by 2-4 points
Coaching tendencies in big games (some staffs turtle with a lead, others stay aggressive)

In the playoffs, spreads are tighter and totals are sharper, but individual team mispricing still happens when books lean too heavily on season averages and not enough on specific matchup angles.

When to Attack Overs vs Unders on Team Totals

Overs on Team Totals

You want Overs when both align:

Offensive edge over the specific defense - A high-PROE team facing a defense that plays static zone and struggles vs layered route concepts. Your model might project 27-28 points while the team total sits at 24.5.

Game script supports aggression - Short spread (pick'em to -3): high chance both teams stay aggressive all 4 quarters. Opponent's offense is good enough that your team can't just sit on a lead.

In these spots, team total Over can be cleaner than game total Over (you don't need the other offense to hold up its end).

Unders on Team Totals

Unders are stronger when:

Total is inflated by name value or recency - Public routinely chases Overs on elite QBs and hot offenses; books respond by adding a point or two of "tax".

Defense and game environment line up - Opponent has a top-5 red-zone defense (drives stall into FGs), pace is low, both teams comfortable punting on 4th-and-medium, weather or pass-rush mismatch pushes you toward fewer explosive plays.

When you like the dog and the Under, it's often sharper to take favorite team total Under + dog side, rather than just the full game Under.

The Seahawks bye-week guide showed how team totals create value when elite defenses suppress specific offensive units.

Shurzy Tip: Team totals are isolation plays. You're betting "Seahawks score 27+" not "game goes Over 48." When you've got a strong read on one offense, team totals let you express it without guessing the other side.

Team Totals vs Spreads: When to Choose Which

They're closely related but not interchangeable:

If you think the market nailed the total but mispriced how competitive the game is, bet the spread.

If you think the market roughly nailed "who wins" but got one offense's output wrong, target team totals.

Example playoff pattern: In cold, defensive games, full totals are shaded down aggressively, but books sometimes don't lower the favorite's team total quite enough, leaving Under value on that team specifically when the public won't stop betting them.

Best Team Total Bets for Championship Sunday

Best Team Total #1: Seahawks Over 26.5 (-110)

Game: Seahawks vs. Rams
Confidence: High (3-4 units)

Seattle averages 28.4 PPG (1st in NFL) and 24.0 first-half PPG in playoffs. The Rams allow 112 rushing YPG (16th in NFL), creating structural advantages for Kenneth Walker III's workhorse volume (23+ carries).

Key Edges:

Seahawks scored 24+ points in 14 of 17 regular-season games
17.0 first-quarter PPG (1st in NFL) suggests fast starts
Rams' defense allows 62% red-zone TD rate (league average), not elite

Betting Action:

Place 3-4 units on Seahawks Team Total Over 26.5 (-110)

Projected Score: Seahawks 28, Rams 24 - Crushes Over

Best Team Total #2: Broncos Under 17.5 (-110)

Game: Patriots at Broncos
Confidence: Maximum (4-5 units)

Denver's backup QB Jarrett Stidham (5 career starts) faces New England's #5 defensive EPA/play in brutal cold and snow at altitude. Patriots allow just 18.3 PPG (2nd in NFL).

Key Edges:

Stidham averaged 16.8 PPG in 2 home starts (2025)
Playoff games with backup QBs average 17.2 PPG for the backup's team
Patriots' defense held Houston to 14 points in Divisional Round

Betting Action:

Place 4-5 units on Broncos Team Total Under 17.5 (-110)

Projected Score: Patriots 24, Broncos 14 - Crushes Under

Best Team Total #3: Patriots Over 24.5 (-110)

Game: Patriots at Broncos
Confidence: High (3-4 units)

New England averages 27.8 PPG and ranked 5th in offensive efficiency (EPA/play). Drake Maye's 12-0 SU record as 3+ point favorite suggests offensive consistency.

Key Edges:

Patriots scored 24+ points in 21 playoff games vs. Houston (Divisional)
Broncos allow 18.3 PPG but face offensive pressure at altitude
Harold Landry OUT (Patriots' pass rush efficiency drops) creates counter-balance

Betting Action:

Place 3-4 units on Patriots Team Total Over 24.5 (-110)

Projected Score: Patriots 27, Broncos 14 - Clears Over

The Bills vs. Broncos Divisional Round game demonstrated how team totals create value when backup QBs suppress offensive output.

Practical Process for Super Bowl LX

Step 1: Start from Market-Implied Team Totals

Back out each implied score from spread + game total (roughly half the total, then adjust by half the spread).

Step 2: Build Your Own Projection

Use yards per play, red-zone rates, pass vs run matchup, and pace to get a "neutral" expected score. Adjust for weather and injuries.

Step 3: Look for 2+ Point Gaps

If your projection is 24 and the team total is 26.5, that's meaningful. If you make it 27.5 and the book is 24.5, that's strong Over value.

Step 4: Check Correlation with Your Other Bets

If you already like the favorite and the Over, favorite team total Over is extremely correlated. Decide whether you want concentrated exposure there or prefer diversification.

Step 5: Shop Numbers at Key Totals

Key team total numbers are 17, 20, 21, 24, 27. Getting Under 27.5 instead of 26.5 is a huge difference in push/win distribution; same for Over 23.5 vs 24.5. Small differences in the number are often worth more than small differences in the juice.

Where Team Totals Usually Offer Best Edge

In Super Bowl markets specifically, team totals can be most beatable when:

The public is in love with one QB/offense, pushing that team's total up beyond what the matchup really warrants.

Weather or offensive line injuries point clearly in one direction, but the number hasn't moved as far as your matchup model says it should.

Live markets after a weird first quarter - a fluky defensive or ST score can inflate or deflate live team totals in ways that don't match underlying success rates.

If you build your card around team totals instead of just picking a side and a game total, you can express much sharper views on how the Super Bowl will be played - not just who lifts the trophy.