Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Moneyline Bets and Upset Chances

Understanding Super Bowl Moneyline Odds: The Math Behind Upset Value

Moneyline odds tell you two things: how much profit you earn per $100 wagered (for underdogs) or how much you must risk to win $100 (for favorites). The conversion to implied probability reveals whether the market is overvaluing or undervaluing a team's true chances.

Conference Championship Super Bowl Moneyline Odds (January 26, 2026):

NFC Championship: Rams at Seahawks

• Seahawks: -142 to -148 (implied win probability: 58.7% to 59.7%)
• Rams: +120 to +124 (implied win probability: 44.6% to 45.5%)

AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos

• Patriots: -225 to -238 (implied win probability: 69.2% to 70.4%)
• Broncos: +185 to +195 (implied win probability: 33.8% to 35.1%)

Key insight: The Seahawks' implied probability (58.7% to 59.7%) suggests a near-toss-up game, yet bettors backing the Rams at +120 need only a 45.5% win probability to break even long-term. That's a 13.2% edge if the true probability is closer to 50-50.

Similarly, the Patriots' implied probability (69.2%) implies dominant favorite status, but historical trends suggest the market has overreacted to Jarrett Stidham's backup role, creating value on the Broncos +195.

The Seahawks bye-week guide highlighted exactly why NFL playoff moneyline odds can be exploited when public perception doesn't match team capability.

Shurzy Tip: Moneyline betting is about finding dogs that are being underpriced. If you think a team has a 50% chance to win but they're priced at +120 (45.5% implied), you've found value. It's that simple.

NFC Championship: Rams +120 Moneyline - The Sharp Upset Play

Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

The Rams' +120 moneyline (bet $100 to win $120) offers exceptional value based on three structural edges.

Historical Head-to-Head Dominance

Los Angeles is 6-4 straight-up in their last 10 meetings with Seattle and 4-2 at Lumen Field over the past six contests. In the most recent matchup (Week 16), the Rams lost 38-37 in overtime but outgained Seattle 581 yards to 415 yards, demonstrating offensive superiority despite the final score.

At implied odds of 45.5%, the Rams' 60% win rate in recent matchups suggests the market is undervaluing their upset probability by 14.5 percentage points.

Why Rams +120 is the play:

• 6-4 straight-up record vs. Seattle in last 10 meetings
• 4-2 record at Lumen Field in last six contests
• Outgained Seattle 581 to 415 yards in Week 16 despite OT loss
• 60% historical win rate vs. 45.5% implied odds (14.5% value gap)
• Matthew Stafford's MVP credentials create higher ceiling than Sam Darnold

Quarterback Ceiling Advantage

Matthew Stafford's 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns in 2025 earned regular-season MVP honors and represent a significantly higher ceiling than Sam Darnold's 287.4 yards per game and 110.9 playoff passer rating.

Darnold has thrown 6 interceptions in 2 games vs. the Rams this season, and his Week 11 performance (4 INTs, 19-for-38, 185 yards) revealed structural vulnerability to Los Angeles' pass rush.

At +120 odds, bettors are essentially wagering that Stafford's elite arm talent and playoff experience create a realistic 50%+ win probability. The data strongly supports this.

Public Overreaction to Seattle's Divisional Round Blowout

The Seahawks' 41-6 demolition of San Francisco in the Divisional Round has skewed public perception, with 72% of spread bets backing Seattle and 62% of moneyline money on the Seahawks.

However, the 49ers were playing with backup offensive linemen and a depleted secondary, making the margin less predictive than it appears. Professional bettors have recognized this overreaction, as 56% of moneyline bets are on the Rams despite only 38% of the money. That's a classic sharp-public split signaling contrarian value.

The 49ers vs. Seahawks Divisional Round breakdown showed exactly how deceptive that blowout was when you dig into the context.

Moneyline Profit Calculation:

• Bet: $200 on Rams +120
• If Rams win: Profit = $240 (total payout: $440)
• If Seahawks win: Loss = -$200
• Break-even win rate: 45.5% (Rams must win 5 of 11 games at these odds to break even long-term)

Best Books for Rams ML: DraftKings (+124), BetMGM (+120), FanDuel (+120)

Shurzy Tip: When 70%+ of the public is on one side but the line isn't moving (or moves toward the underdog), that's your signal. Sharp money is quietly loading up on the other side. Follow the money, not the crowd.

AFC Championship: Broncos +195 Moneyline - The Ultimate Lottery Ticket

Confidence: High (4 units)

The Broncos' +195 moneyline (bet $100 to win $195) offers extreme value for bettors willing to embrace high-variance, low-probability outcomes backed by elite defensive metrics and favorable historical trends.

Home Underdog Playoff Dominance

Home underdogs of 4+ points in NFL playoff games are 10-0 ATS with 6 outright wins over the past 50 years. The Broncos fit this profile perfectly, catching +4.5 points at home with a #2-ranked scoring defense (18.3 PPG allowed) and 68 sacks (1st in NFL).

At +195 odds (implied probability: 33.8%), bettors need Denver to win outright just 33.8% of the time to break even. But historical trends suggest a closer-to-50% true probability when factoring in home-field advantage and defensive dominance.

Why Broncos +195 offers value:

• Home underdogs of 4+ points are 10-0 ATS with 6 outright wins (past 50 years)
• #2 scoring defense (18.3 PPG allowed) and 68 sacks (1st in NFL)
• Implied probability of 33.8% vs. closer-to-50% true probability
• Mile High altitude advantage against road favorites from sea level
• Patriots are 0-4 all-time at Mile High in playoff games

Overadjustment for Jarrett Stidham

The line swung 6.5 points from the preliminary Patriots -1.5 (released before Bo Nix's injury) to the current Patriots -4.5. Yet oddsmakers in preseason estimated the Nix-to-Stidham adjustment at just 3.85 points.

That's a 2.65-point overreaction. The market is panicking about Stidham's inexperience while ignoring Denver's elite defense and home-field advantage.

Stidham's 9.9 yards-per-completion average in preseason and his 365-yard, 3-TD performance vs. the 49ers in 2022 show upside potential. While Stidham is unproven, Denver's conservative game script (run-heavy, clock-control) and elite defense reduce his burden to managing 17-21 points.

The Broncos bye-week betting guide broke down exactly why Denver's defense gives them a puncher's chance even with a backup QB.

Patriots' Vulnerable Road Record

New England finished 8-0 on the road during the regular season, but only one of those wins came against a team with a winning record (Week 5 at Buffalo). The Patriots are 0-4 all-time at Mile High in playoff games, and Drake Maye is untested in hostile road playoff environments.

At altitude, with crowd noise limiting pre-snap adjustments, Maye's 38.4% pressure rate (7th-worst in NFL) becomes a critical vulnerability against Denver's 68-sack defense.

Moneyline Profit Calculation:

• Bet: $100 on Broncos +195
• If Broncos win: Profit = $195 (total payout: $295)
• If Patriots win: Loss = -$100
• Break-even win rate: 33.8% (Broncos must win 1 of 3 games at these odds to break even long-term)

Best Books for Broncos ML: DraftKings (+195), BetMGM (+195), FanDuel (+185)

Shurzy Tip: Home underdogs in playoff games are criminally undervalued. The altitude at Mile High, the crowd noise, the defensive intensity - all of it compounds into a nightmare for road favorites. This isn't a "hope" bet. It's a statistically backed edge.

Parlay & Hedge Strategies for NFL Playoff Moneyline Bettors

Double-Underdog Moneyline Parlay: Rams (+120) + Broncos (+195)

Combining both underdog moneylines creates a +575 parlay (DraftKings, FanDuel), returning $575 profit on a $100 bet if both underdogs win outright. While the true probability is low (around 15-20%), the payout justifies small-unit allocation (0.5-1 unit) for bettors seeking high-upside exposure.

Parlay Calculation:

• Bet: $50 on Rams ML (+120) + Broncos ML (+195)
• If both win: Profit = $287.50 (total payout: $337.50)
• If either loses: Loss = -$50

Hedge Strategy: Futures + Moneyline Combination

If you hold preseason Seahawks futures tickets at +6000 (example: $100 bet = $6,000 profit), you can hedge with a Rams moneyline bet to guarantee profit.

Hedge example:

• Original bet: $100 on Seahawks +6000 (potential profit: $6,000)
• Hedge bet: $2,000 on Rams +120 (potential profit: $2,400)

Outcomes:

• If Seahawks win Super Bowl: Win $6,000, lose $2,000 = +$4,000 net profit
• If Rams win NFC Championship: Win $2,400, lose $100 = +$2,300 net profit

This locks in a minimum $2,300 profit while preserving $4,000 upside.

Shurzy Tip: Hedging futures with moneylines is how sharp bettors turn variance into guaranteed profit. You're not "giving up" on your original ticket. You're locking in a win no matter what happens.

Super Bowl LX Moneyline Projections

Most Likely Matchup: Seahawks (-120) vs. Patriots (+100)

If both favorites win, the Seahawks will open as slight moneyline favorites at Levi's Stadium (neutral site, but geographically closer to Seattle). The Patriots' 14-5 ATS record and Drake Maye's playoff experience will keep the moneyline tight, offering near-even odds for bettors seeking pick'em value.

Highest-Value Matchup: Rams (-140) vs. Broncos (+120)

If both underdogs win, the Rams will be modest favorites based on Stafford's MVP credentials and superior offensive metrics. However, Denver's #2 scoring defense and playoff underdog pedigree would make Broncos +120 a sharp contrarian play for bettors seeking repeat upset value.

When to Bet Moneylines Over Spreads

Sharp bettors prefer moneylines over spreads in three scenarios:

High Upset Probability

When your model projects a >40% win probability for an underdog priced at +120 or better, the moneyline offers superior value than the spread.

Low-Scoring, Defensive Games

When the total is <43 points, underdogs often lose by narrow margins (3-7 points), making the moneyline a better hedge than the spread.

Contrarian Plays

When 70%+ of public money backs the favorite but sharp bettors are quietly backing the underdog, the moneyline captures full upset value without worrying about garbage-time backdoor covers.

The Texans vs. Patriots Divisional Round game showed exactly when moneyline value beats spread value in playoff scenarios.

Final Thoughts: Cash in on Super Bowl Underdog Bets

The Rams +120 and Broncos +195 represent the sharpest moneyline plays for Championship Sunday, offering institutional-grade value for disciplined bettors willing to embrace calculated risk in a playoff environment historically favorable to underdogs.

Forget the narratives. Follow the numbers. The upset value is real.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

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