NFL Playoff Betting FAQ: Most Common Questions Answered

Betting Mechanics and Basic Rules

Q1: What's the difference between -110 odds and -105 odds? Which is better?

Both are odds formats for spread and total bets. The number represents how much you must risk to win $100.

-110 (standard): Risk $110 to win $100. The sportsbook keeps $10 as commission (vig).

-105 (better): Risk $105 to win $100. The sportsbook keeps only $5 as vig.

On a $100 bet:

• -110 odds: You win $90.91 profit
• -105 odds: You win $95.24 profit (4% better return)

Practical impact: If you bet $1,000 on a single -110 spread and win, you profit $909. Same bet at -105, you profit $952. Across 13 playoff games, shopping for -105 adds 4-6% to your bottom line.

Action: Use sportsbooks offering reduced vig (-105, -103) during playoffs. DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM rotate promotional vig reductions weekly.

For understanding odds better, check out NFL betting spreads explained.

Shurzy Tip: Shopping for better odds is free money. Always compare -110 versus -105 before placing any bet.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

Q2: Can I get my money back if my bet loses due to an injury I didn't know about?

No. Once you place a bet, it's legally binding. Injuries announced after betting is "official" do not void bets.

Exception: If a team's starting QB is announced as inactive less than 90 minutes before kickoff after you've already bet, some books offer "injury exception" refunds. This varies by sportsbook, so check your specific book's terms.

Professional approach: Wait for Friday injury reports before sizing bets heavily. Most injury information clarifies by Friday afternoon. Don't bet Wednesday on uncertain statuses.

For injury tracking, see our NFL injury report hub.

Q3: What does "push" mean?

A push is a tie. No one wins or loses. Your money is returned.

Example:

You bet Seahawks -3. Final score Seahawks 24, Packers 21. Seahawks win by exactly 3. That's a push. Your bet is refunded.

If you bet Seahawks -3.5 and they win 24-21, you covered (they won by 3, which is more than the 3.5-point spread requires? No, wait. If the spread is -3.5, they need to win by 4 or more. So 24-21 is a 3-point win, which doesn't cover -3.5. You lose).

Total example: Over 47.5. Final total 48. That's over (you win). Final total 47. That's under (over loses). A total of exactly 47.5 is mathematically impossible (you can't score half a point), so pushes on totals with .5 are impossible.

Q4: What's the playoff structure? How many teams, how many rounds?

14 teams make the NFL playoffs (7 per conference). Five rounds total:

• Wild Card Round (4 games per conference, 8 total): Seeds #2-7 in each conference compete. The #1 seed gets a bye.
• Divisional Round (2 games per conference, 4 total): Winners of Wild Card plus the #1 seed.
• Conference Championship (2 games total): Winners of Divisional Round compete for conference titles.
• Super Bowl (1 game): AFC champion versus NFC champion.
• Total playoff games: 13 games over 3-4 weeks.

Shurzy Tip: Not every playoff round offers the same betting value. Wild Card underdogs historically have the best edge at 67% ATS.

Strategy and Bankroll Questions

Q5: Should I bet all 13 games, or pick and choose?

Pick and choose. Professional bettors skip games with no edge.

Historical data: 8-10 of 13 playoff games have positive expected value opportunities. The other 3-5 have marginal or negative expected value. Skip them entirely.

Example:

Game 1 (Wild Card): Steelers +3 moneyline identified as 61% ATS historical edge. PLAY (1.5% bankroll).

Game 2 (Wild Card): Patriots -5 heavy favorite. SKIP (no edge, heavy favorites underperform).

Game 3 (Wild Card): Bills total 48 under in outdoor cold weather. PLAY (weather edge, 1% bankroll).

Across 13 games, you might place 8-10 bets total, not 13.

For more on identifying value, check out NFL playoff best bets.

Shurzy Tip: The best bettors pass on more games than they bet. Selectivity beats activity every single time.

Q6: What's a realistic ROI (return on investment) for a beginner in the playoffs?

Break-even to +10% ROI is realistic for disciplined beginners (1-3% bet sizing, 52-55% accuracy, proper strategy selection).

Example math:

Bankroll: $1,000
10 bets placed at 1% average equals $100 deployed
Win rate: 54% (7 wins, 3 losses at -110 odds)
Wins: 7 x $91 (per $100 bet at -110) equals $637
Losses: 3 x -$100 equals -$300
Net: +$337 profit equals +33.7% ROI on deployed capital, +3.4% on total bankroll

Realistic expectations: Don't expect 20%+ ROI in 13 games. That requires 60%+ accuracy and optimal sizing. Aiming for 0-10% ROI is professional-level success in the playoffs.

Q7: Should I use my entire bankroll in the playoffs, or hold some in reserve?

Hold 20-30% in reserve for downswings.

Why: Variance is brutal in 13-game samples. You could win 7 of 10 and still be down money if early losses were oversized. Reserve capital lets you continue betting through downswings without panic decisions.

Example:

Total bankroll: $1,000
Playoff deployment: $700-800 (7-8 bets at 1%)
Reserve: $200-300 (for additional opportunities or recovery)

Shurzy Tip: Reserve capital is your insurance against cold streaks. Never deploy 100% of your bankroll at once.

Q8: Is it better to live bet (in-game) or pre-game bets?

Pre-game is better for beginners. Live betting is for advanced bettors only.

Pre-game advantages:

• More time to analyze
• Less emotional (not watching game in real time)
• Better closing odds (in-game odds are sharp-adjusted, harder to beat)

Live betting pitfalls:

• Recency bias (down 10 points at halftime, you panic-chase)
• Faster line movement (sharp money already positioned)
• Emotional decisions (easier to oversize after seeing bad first half)

Recommendation: Make all spread and total bets pre-game. After the game starts, observe only. No new positions until 2-minute warning or halftime (when specific info emerges).

For live betting strategies when you're ready, see NFL live betting explained.

Market Dynamics and Line Shopping

Q9: What's "line shopping" and why does it matter?

Comparing the same bet across multiple sportsbooks to find the best odds or price.

Example:

Texans +3 at DraftKings (your primary book)
Texans +3.5 at FanDuel (0.5 points better)
Texans +3 at BetMGM

Action: Bet at FanDuel. +3.5 is harder to lose than +3. Mathematically 0.5 points better.

Impact: Across 13 games, consistent 0.5-point shopping differences add 2-4 wins to your record. Over a season, that's 5-8% improvement in ROI.

Professional approach: Use apps like Action Network or ESPN to see all book odds side-by-side. Bet at the best available line, always.

Shurzy Tip: Line shopping is the easiest way to improve your win rate without changing your handicapping. Do it every single time.

Q10: Why does the line move? What does it mean?

Lines move due to two forces: (1) money wagered (public betting), and (2) new information (injuries, weather, analytics).

Example scenario:

Monday open: Patriots -3.5
Tuesday morning: Josh Allen (Bills) ruled "out"
Tuesday 2 PM: Line moves to Patriots -6.5 (now 3 points sharper)

Interpretation: Sharp money and injury information agree Bills are significantly worse. Patriots now priced for a dominant game.

For beginners: Don't over-analyze line movement. Instead:

If the line moves FOR your side (spreads widen in favor of your pick), congrats. You're on the right side, line validated.

If the line moves AGAINST your side (spreads tighten or reverse), reconsider. Sharp money may have seen something you missed.

For deeper line movement analysis, check out line movement in NFL betting explained.

Q11: What does "reverse line movement" mean? Should I fade it?

Reverse line movement (RLM) is when public betting heavily one side, but the line moves the opposite direction. Sharp money is taking the other side.

Example:

Seahawks -3, 70% of public betting Seahawks
Line moves to Seahawks -2.5 (sharpening toward underdog)

Interpretation: Sharp money is backing the Packers. Public is wrong.

Should you fade? Not automatically. RLM is a signal to investigate, not an automatic contrarian bet.

If RLM plus your analysis agrees, that's high confidence position.
If RLM plus your analysis disagrees, re-examine your analysis.
If RLM plus your analysis neutral, slight lean toward sharp side (they have more info).

Professional use: RLM is confirmatory, not directive. Use it to validate or challenge your thesis, not replace analysis.

Shurzy Tip: When sharp money and your analysis agree, that's as confident as you can get. Load up appropriately.

Specific Bet Type Questions

Q12: Why do underdogs hit better in the playoffs than regular season?

Public money disproportionately favors playoff favorites. Casual bettors believe "best teams in playoffs," increasing bet volume on favorites.

Historical edge: Underdogs +3 to +6 hit at 61% ATS in playoffs versus 52% in regular season.

This 9-point difference is pure market inefficiency. Public overvalues favorites, books shade lines accordingly, creating systematic underdog value.

For more on underdog value, see NFL moneyline bets explained.

Q13: What's a prop bet? Should I bet them?

Prop (proposition) bets are wagers on individual statistics: a player's passing or rushing yards, anytime touchdown, first drive touchdown, etc.

Should beginners bet them? Not in early playoff rounds. Props require deep player and matchup analysis.

Better approach: Master spreads and totals (13 games, approximately 52-55% win rate achievable). Once that's consistently profitable, add select props in later rounds (Divisional and beyond) when you've built confidence.

For when you're ready, check out NFL player props guide.

Q14: What's a parlay? Should I bet them?

A parlay is combining multiple bets. You must win all to cash out. If any leg loses, the entire parlay loses.

Example 3-game parlay:

Bet 1: Seahawks -3.5 (-110)
Bet 2: Eagles -5 (-110)
Bet 3: Bills total over 48 (-110)

All three must win to get payout (+600 for 3-team parlay).

Should beginners bet them? No. Parlays have terrible mathematical value due to vig compounding. Instead, bet each team individually.

Why it's bad math: 3 bets at 55% accuracy each equals 0.55^3 equals 16.6% true probability. Fair odds should be +502. Books offer +600 (looks great), but they're actually only paying 11.3% true value after vig.

Better approach: Bet 3 games at -110 separately. You need 55%+ to be profitable. Parlays require 60%+ to break even.

For understanding parlay math, see NFL parlay bets explained.

Shurzy Tip: Parlays are designed to make the sportsbook money, not you. Avoid them until you're consistently profitable on straight bets.

Q15: What's a "teaser"? Is it different from a parlay?

A teaser lets you move multiple spreads or totals in your favor (4-6 extra points), but you win less if you win.

Example 6-point teaser:

Seahawks -3.5 becomes Seahawks +2.5 (much easier to win)
Bills +2 becomes Bills +8 (much easier to cover)

You get both at +180 odds instead of separate -110s.

For beginners? Avoid. Teasers have similar math issues as parlays. The extra points you get don't offset the worse payout odds.

Responsible Betting and Discipline

Q16: How do I know if I have a gambling problem?

Red flags include:

• Betting more than 1-3% per bet (can't stick to bankroll limits)
• Chasing losses (doubling down after bad days)
• Lying to friends or family about bet sizes
• Missing rent or bills to fund betting
• Feeling anxious when unable to bet

If yes to any: Seek help immediately. Contact the National Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-800-522-4700 (free, confidential).

Responsible approach: Betting should be entertainment with a skill edge, not income, not escape, not therapy.

Q17: Should I "hedge" my bet? What does that mean?

Hedging is placing a counter bet to lock in profit or minimize loss.

Example:

You bet Seahawks +250 to win Super Bowl.
They reach Super Bowl as slight underdogs.
Remaining fair odds: 49% to win, 51% to lose.

You can now bet Eagles (opponent) moneyline to lock profit.

If Eagles win, you lose Seahawks futures but win Eagles moneyline.
If Seahawks win, you lose Eagles moneyline but win big futures payout.

For beginners: Don't hedge unless you have a substantial futures ticket (100+ unit position). Hedging is for advanced portfolio management, not everyday betting.

For understanding futures, check out NFL futures betting explained.

Q18: What's the difference between a sportsbook and a casino?

Sportsbooks take bets on sports outcomes. Casinos offer table games (blackjack, roulette, poker) and slots.

For NFL playoff betting: Use sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet), not casinos. Casinos have worse odds and different regulations.

Shurzy Tip: Stick to licensed sportsbooks for NFL betting. They're regulated, insured, and designed specifically for sports wagering.

Final Questions

Q19: Is there a "best" sportsbook for beginners?

No single "best," but beginner-friendly options include:

DraftKings: Excellent user interface, -105 vig often, good promos
FanDuel: Strong integrated experience, good odds
BetMGM: Solid odds, Caesars rewards integration
PointsBet: Unique odds boosts, smaller but sharp

Action: Open accounts at 2-3 books. Line shop across all, bet at best odds. Takes 5 minutes and improves your ROI by 4-6%.

Q20: How much should I deposit to start?

$500-1,500 is ideal for beginners. This is enough to:

• Bet $5-45 per game (1-3% of $1,000-1,500 bankroll)
• Survive 5-6 losing streaks without busting
• Compound modest gains into larger bankroll by Super Bowl

Never deposit more than you can afford to lose. If losing the entire amount would affect your rent, don't bet.

For bankroll strategies, see how to spot trends in NFL betting.

Final Thoughts: Questions Lead to Better Bets

The best bettors are the ones who ask questions before placing bets, not after losing money. This FAQ eliminates the confusion that destroys beginner bankrolls and gives you the clarity to bet with confidence.

Understanding odds, line movement, bet types, and bankroll management isn't glamorous, but it's the foundation of profitable betting. Master these basics, and you'll outlast 80% of bettors who chase narratives and parlays without understanding the fundamentals.

Now go bet smarter, ask better questions, and let discipline guide your decisions.

Shurzy Tip: Bookmark this FAQ and reference it before every playoff bet. The questions you answer before betting determine the money you make after.

Read more: NFL Over Under Betting Guide

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