Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: First Touchdown Scorer Bets

Best First Touchdown Scorer Bets for Conference Championship Sunday

Best Bet #1: Kenneth Walker III First TD (+475)

Game: Seahawks vs. Rams
Confidence: Maximum (3 units)

Kenneth Walker III is the betting favorite to score the first touchdown in the NFC Championship Game at +475 odds (bet $100 to win $475), reflecting his elite volume (23+ carries projected), 100% backfield snap share (with Zach Charbonnet out), and workhorse role in Seattle's run-heavy offense.

At +475, Walker needs to score first in just 1 of 5 games to break even - but his 44% season-long scoring rate suggests a true 18-20% probability, creating significant positive expected value.

Why Walker cashes +475:

• Scored first TD in 4 of 17 regular-season games (23.5% hit rate)
• 3 first-TD performances in last 10 games (30% hit rate)
• Seattle runs ball on 68% of first-quarter plays (2nd-highest in NFL)
• Rams allowed opposing RBs to score first TD in 6 of 17 games (35.3%)
• 100% backfield share with Charbonnet out for season

Historical Context: In the two 2025 regular-season matchups vs. the Rams, Walker scored the first touchdown once (Week 16, 38-37 OT thriller), demonstrating his ability to dominate early game script. RotoWire ranks Walker as the #1 first TD scorer pick for Championship Sunday.

The Bills vs. Broncos Divisional Round game showed similar RB first TD value when workhorse backs dominate opening-drive scripts.

Betting Action:

• Place 2-3 units on Kenneth Walker III First TD +475 (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)
• Consider a 2-leg parlay: Walker First TD (+475) + Seahawks ML (-142) at +965 odds for correlated upside

Projected Outcome: 18% probability to score first TD (positive EV at +475)

Shurzy Tip: When a RB gets 23+ carries with zero competition and the team runs 68% of first-quarter plays, you bet him to score first. Walker is a lock at +475.

Best Bet #2: Jaxon Smith-Njigba First TD (+750)

Game: Seahawks vs. Rams
Confidence: Maximum (2-3 units)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba offers exceptional first TD value at +750 odds (bet $100 to win $750), reflecting his elite target share (28.4%, leads NFL), 102.9-yard projection, and ability to score on explosive plays.

At +750, JSN needs to score first in just 1 of 8 games to break even - but his history of explosive scoring (scored on 50+ yard receptions 3 times in 2025) suggests a true 12-15% probability, creating strong positive expected value.

Why JSN cashes +750:

• Scored first TD in 2 of 17 regular-season games (11.8% hit rate)
• Both first-TD performances came in home games at Lumen Field
• Seattle's pass rate jumps to 42% when trailing or in tight games
• Rams deploy man coverage on 42% of snaps (JSN excels vs. man)
• JSN averages 7.2 yards after catch vs. man (3rd among WRs)

Historical Context: Sportsbook Review ranks JSN as the #1 first TD scorer pick for the NFC Championship, projecting him at +750 odds with 4-star confidence. Yahoo Sports' expert model also backs JSN, citing his "dynamic threat" and "elite route-running".

Betting Action:

• Place 2-3 units on Jaxon Smith-Njigba First TD +750 (DraftKings, FanDuel)
• Consider the alternate prop: JSN Anytime TD +115 for safer exposure

Projected Outcome: 12-15% probability to score first TD (positive EV at +750)

Best Bet #3: Rashid Shaheed First TD (+2000)

Game: Seahawks vs. Rams
Confidence: Medium-High (1-2 units)

Rashid Shaheed offers lottery-ticket value at +2000 odds (bet $100 to win $2,000) as Seattle's explosive return specialist and gadget weapon, with the ability to score on kickoff returns, punt returns, and jet-sweep plays.

At +2000, Shaheed needs to score first in just 1 of 21 games to break even - but his 95-yard kickoff return TD vs. San Francisco in the Divisional Round demonstrates his ceiling upside.

Why Shaheed has value at +2000:

• Scored first TD on special teams twice in 2025 season
• 95-yard kickoff return TD vs. SF in Divisional Round
• Rams rank 28th in special-teams efficiency
• Rams allowed 3 return TDs during regular season
• RotoWire ranks Shaheed as #1 long-shot pick

Betting Action:

• Place 1-2 units on Rashid Shaheed First TD +2000 (FanDuel, BetMGM)

Projected Outcome: 5-6% probability to score first TD (positive EV at +2000)

Best Bet #4: Hunter Henry First TD (+950)

Game: Patriots at Broncos
Confidence: Maximum (3 units)

Hunter Henry offers elite first TD value at +950 odds (bet $100 to win $950), reflecting his 21 red-zone targets (1st among AFC TEs), 84.0% red-zone target share, and history of scoring first (scored first TD vs. Chargers in Wild Card Round).

At +950, Henry needs to score first in just 1 of 10 games to break even - but his elite red-zone usage suggests a true 12-14% probability, creating exceptional positive expected value.

Why Henry cashes +950:

• Scored first TD in 3 of 17 regular-season games (17.6% hit rate)
• 2 first-TD performances in last 6 games (33.3% hit rate)
• Patriots target TEs on 42% of red-zone plays (2nd-highest in NFL)
• Denver ranks 13th in coverage grade vs. TEs
• Scored first TD vs. Chargers in Wild Card Round

Historical Context: Sportsbook Review ranks Henry as the #1 first TD scorer pick for the AFC Championship, projecting him at +950 odds with 4-star confidence. Yahoo Sports and Covers.com also back Henry, calling him "the best value among all Pats' pass-catchers".

The Chargers vs. Patriots Wild Card game showed exactly how Henry dominates first TD props with his red-zone usage.

Betting Action:

• Place 2-3 units on Hunter Henry First TD +950 (bet365, DraftKings, FanDuel)
• Consider a 2-leg parlay: Henry First TD (+950) + Patriots ML (-225) at +1400 odds

Projected Outcome: 12-14% probability to score first TD (positive EV at +950)

Shurzy Tip: 21 red-zone targets and 84% target share in the red zone means Henry is seeing the ball in scoring position more than anyone. At +950, this is the best value on the board.

Best Bet #5: Rhamondre Stevenson First TD (+600)

Game: Patriots at Broncos
Confidence: High (2-3 units)

Rhamondre Stevenson offers strong first TD value at +600 odds (bet $100 to win $600), reflecting his goal-line dominance (14 red-zone carries in last 4 games), 6 TDs in last 7 games, and elite efficiency (5.1 yards per carry in playoffs).

At +600, Stevenson needs to score first in just 1 of 7 games to break even - but his red-hot scoring streak suggests a true 15-18% probability, creating positive expected value.

Why Stevenson cashes +600:

• Scored first TD in 2 of last 7 games (28.6% hit rate)
• 14 red-zone carries in last 4 games (goal-line hammer)
• Patriots run ball on 62% of first-quarter plays as favorites
• Denver allowed 183 rushing yards to Buffalo (RB James Cook scored first TD)
• 6 TDs in last 7 games shows red-hot streak

Betting Action:

• Place 2-3 units on Rhamondre Stevenson First TD +600 (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)

Projected Outcome: 15-18% probability to score first TD (positive EV at +600)

Advanced Super Bowl First TD Strategy

Target Elite Red-Zone Usage

Sharp bettors prioritize players with 15+ red-zone targets or carries, as red-zone usage creates maximum scoring probability.

Elite Red-Zone Players:

• Hunter Henry: 21 red-zone targets (1st among AFC TEs)
• Kenneth Walker III: 18 red-zone carries (2nd among RBs)
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 14 red-zone carries (last 4 games)

Opening-Drive Tendencies

First TD scorer odds are heavily influenced by opening-drive script.

Run-Heavy Opening Drives:

• Home favorites (Seahawks -2.5): Run the ball 68% of first-quarter plays, boosting Walker's first TD probability

Pass-Heavy Opening Drives:

• Road favorites (Patriots -4.5): Pass the ball 58% of first-quarter plays, boosting Hunter Henry's first TD probability

The Texans vs. Patriots Divisional Round game showed exactly how opening-drive tendencies dictate first TD outcomes.

Historical First TD Trends

Historical data shows strong correlations:

• Teams scoring first win 62.5% of playoff games
• RBs score first TDs in 38% of NFL games, WRs in 28%, TEs in 18%, QBs in 12%, defenses in 4%

The Rams vs. Bears Divisional Round breakdown demonstrated how RBs dominate first TD props in run-heavy playoff games.

Shurzy Tip: Don't chase long-shot WRs at +1500 just because they're "explosive." Red-zone usage is everything. If a guy doesn't get looks inside the 10, he's not scoring first. Period.

Super Bowl LX First TD Projections

Most Likely Matchup: Seahawks vs. Patriots

• Kenneth Walker III: +425
• Hunter Henry: +1000

Sharpest bet: Walker +425 as the #1 volume play

Best Parlay: JSN (+750) + Henry (+950) = +8825

A $10 bet wins $892.50 if both score first in their respective games.

Highest-Upside Matchup: Rams vs. Patriots

• Davante Adams: +350
• TreVeyon Henderson: +275

Sharpest bet: Adams +350 with 40% red-zone target share

The 49ers vs. Seahawks Divisional Round game showed similar first TD value when elite red-zone weapons face vulnerable defenses.

Final Thoughts

The five best first touchdown scorer bets for Championship Sunday are Kenneth Walker III (+475), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+750), Rashid Shaheed (+2000), Hunter Henry (+950), and Rhamondre Stevenson (+600) - all backed by elite red-zone usage, opening-drive tendencies, and positive expected value.

For Super Bowl LX, expect similar first TD inefficiencies, with RBs and TEs offering the sharpest value due to goal-line usage.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

‍