Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Picks Against the Spread (ATS Picks)

NFC Championship ATS Pick: Rams +2.5 (-110)

Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

The Los Angeles Rams are one of the sharpest ATS plays of the entire 2025-26 season, posting a 12-5 ATS record (70.6%) and going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings against Seattle.

Let that sink in. 8-2 ATS. This isn't a fluke. It's a pattern.

Why the Rams cover +2.5:

Offensive Dominance

Matthew Stafford is running the #1 offense in football, averaging 30.5 points per game and 376.9 total yards. In Week 16 at Lumen Field, Stafford threw for 457 yards and 3 TDs, exposing Seattle's middle-of-the-pack pass defense (13th in passing yards allowed).

The Seahawks have allowed 205.3 passing yards per game during the regular season, and their secondary ranks 16th in opponent pass play percentage. That's a structural mismatch against Puka Nacua (1,242 yards) and Davante Adams (league-leading 12 TDs).

Reverse Line Movement

Here's the tell: 74% of public bets are on Seattle, yet the line has stayed locked at -2.5. Some books are even juicing the Rams to +2.5 (-115).

That's sharp money. When the public is all over one side and the line doesn't move (or moves toward the underdog), it means professionals are quietly backing the other team.

Recent Head-to-Head Results

The Rams are 6-4 straight-up in their last 10 meetings with Seattle and have won four of their last six games at Lumen Field.

• In Week 11, they covered as 3-point underdogs, winning 21-19
• In Week 16, they lost 38-37 in overtime as 1.5-point favorites but racked up 581 total yards to Seattle's 415

Translation: The Rams move the ball on Seattle. Consistently.

Coaching Edge

Sean McVay is 16-3 ATS in December games since 2021 and brings Super Bowl LVI championship experience. Meanwhile, the Rams' offensive line ranks in the top 10 at every position, giving Stafford clean pockets to carve up Seattle's man-heavy coverage.

The bet: Rams +2.5 (-110), 4-5 units. This is the sharpest play on the board.

Similar dynamics played out when the Seahawks hosted divisional opponents earlier in the playoffs. Public money loved Seattle at home, but smart bettors saw value fading the favorite.

AFC Championship ATS Pick: Broncos +4.5 (-110)

Confidence: Maximum (5 units)

The Denver Broncos opened as +5.5 underdogs but have seen the line move to +3.5 / +4.5 despite 71% of public money on New England. This is textbook sharp reverse line movement, and it's screaming value.

Why Denver covers +4.5:

Backup QB Overreaction

Oddsmakers estimated the point-spread adjustment from Bo Nix to Jarrett Stidham at 3.85 points. But the line swung 6.5 points from the preliminary Patriots -1.5 to the current -4.5.

That's a 2.65-point overreaction. The market is panicking about Stidham's inexperience while ignoring Denver's elite defense and home-field advantage.

Elite Home Defense

Denver's defense ranks 2nd in scoring defense (18.3 PPG allowed), 1st in sacks (68), and 5th in third-down conversion rate allowed. They held the Buffalo Bills to just 20 points in regulation before two defensive breakdowns in overtime.

Key defensive matchups:

• Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II will shadow New England's #1 receiver
• Edge rusher Nik Bonitto (12.5 sacks) will target Drake Maye relentlessly
• Maye has been strip-sacked 11 times this season
• Maye faces pressure on 38.4% of dropbacks (7th-worst in NFL)

Home Underdog Playoff Dominance

Denver is 2-0 ATS as a home underdog this season, winning outright in both games by an average of 8.5 points. More broadly, home underdogs in AFC Championship Games are 6-2 ATS since 2010.

The altitude advantage at Mile High Stadium is real, especially against road favorites traveling from sea level.

Patriots' Overvalued Road Record

New England finished 8-0 on the road during the regular season, but only one of those wins came against a team with a winning record (Week 5 at Buffalo). The Patriots are 0-4 all-time at Mile High in playoff games, with their most recent loss coming in the 2015 AFC Championship Game.

Drake Maye is 12-0 straight-up as a 3+ point favorite, but he's untested in hostile road playoff environments against elite defenses.

The bet: Broncos +4.5 (-110), 4-5 units. Lock it in.

If you followed our Broncos bye-week betting guide, you already know Denver's defense travels well in the playoffs.

The Bills vs. Broncos matchup proved exactly this point. Denver's defense kept it competitive even when Stidham struggled early.

Best Teaser: Rams +8.5 & Broncos +10.5 (-110)

A 6-point teaser moves both underdogs through key NFL numbers (3, 7, and 10), creating a win rate of around 70-75% based on historical data.

Why this teaser works:

• Rams at +8.5 cover even if Seattle wins by a touchdown and field goal
• Broncos at +10.5 cover in a blowout scenario (Patriots winning 27-17 still hits)
• Removes sweat from both games while offering solid payout
• Covers multiple game scripts (close games, moderate blowouts)
• Exploits key NFL numbers where final margins cluster

This teaser removes the sweat from both games while still offering solid payout potential.

The bet: 6-point teaser (Rams +8.5 & Broncos +10.5) at -110, 2-3 units.

Best Parlay: Rams +2.5 & Broncos +4.5 (+264)

Combining both underdog ATS picks offers +264 odds (2.64x payout) with a double-contrarian edge. The public is hammering the Seahawks and Patriots, yet both lines have moved toward the underdogs.

This parlay captures maximum sharp value while avoiding correlated outcomes (the games are independent, so one result doesn't affect the other).

Why this parlay hits:

• Both picks backed by sharp reverse line movement
• Public is 74% on Seahawks, 71% on Patriots, yet lines favor underdogs
• Independent games mean no correlation risk
• Pays +264 vs. risking 2 units to win 1.8 units on separate bets
• Maximum contrarian value in one play

When the Packers faced the Bears in the Wild Card Round, similar underdog parlay logic paid off. Public hammered the favorite, sharps backed the dog, and the spread covered easily.

The bet: Rams +2.5 & Broncos +4.5 (+264), 2 units.

Super Bowl LX ATS Projections

Once Championship Sunday wraps, here's how the Super Bowl spread will likely shake out:

Most Likely Matchup: Seahawks (-3) vs. Patriots (+3)

If both favorites win, Seattle will open as -2.5 / -3 home favorites at Levi's Stadium (neutral site, but geographically closer to Seattle). The Patriots' 14-5 ATS record and Drake Maye's playoff experience will keep the spread tight, creating value on New England +3 for contrarian bettors.

Sleeper Matchup: Rams (-1.5) vs. Broncos (+1.5)

If both underdogs win, the Rams will be slight favorites based on Stafford's MVP credentials and the Broncos' backup-QB situation. However, Denver's #2 scoring defense would make Broncos +1.5 a sharp play in a potential defensive slugfest.

Chalk Matchup: Seahawks (-4.5) vs. Broncos (+4.5)

If Seattle and Denver both win, the Seahawks will be larger favorites due to Stidham's inexperience. This creates potential value on Broncos +4.5 or +5, especially if Denver's defense holds up against the Patriots.

Chaos Matchup: Rams (-2.5) vs. Patriots (+2.5)

If both road teams win, the Rams will be slight favorites as the NFC representative with Matthew Stafford's championship experience. Patriots +2.5 would offer value given Drake Maye's playoff pedigree.

Key ATS Trends to Remember

• Rams: 12-5 ATS (70.6%) in 2025-26, including 8-2 ATS vs. Seattle in last 10 meetings
• Patriots: 14-5 ATS (73.7%) this season, including 3-1 ATS as a road favorite
• Broncos: 2-0 ATS as home underdogs in 2025, winning both outright
• Seahawks: 12-5 ATS (70.6%) but 0-2 ATS in last two home games vs. Rams
• Home underdogs in AFC Championship Games: 6-2 ATS since 2010
• Road underdogs in NFC Championship Games: 11-7 ATS since 2010
• Key NFL numbers: 3, 7, and 10 account for 27% of all final margins

Bankroll Management for ATS Bettors

Here's how to allocate a 100-unit ($5,000) bankroll across Championship Sunday ATS plays:

• Rams +2.5: 4-5 units ($200-250)
• Broncos +4.5: 4-5 units ($200-250)
• Rams/Broncos parlay (+264): 2 units ($100)
• 6-point teaser: 2-3 units ($100-150)

Total exposure: 12-15 units ($600-750), leaving 85+ units in reserve for Super Bowl week.

This allocation maximizes edge on the two sharpest plays (Rams +2.5, Broncos +4.5) while adding correlated upside through the parlay and teaser.

If you applied similar discipline during the Wild Card Round, you protected your bankroll even when a few picks went sideways.

Final Thoughts: Fade the Public, Follow the Sharps

The sharpest ATS plays for Championship Sunday are clear: Rams +2.5 and Broncos +4.5. Both are backed by reverse line movement, historical trends, and structural advantages that the public is ignoring.

For Super Bowl LX, expect similar market inefficiencies once the matchup is set. The key is betting early to capture the best numbers before public money moves the line against you.

Fade the noise. Back the value. Cash the tickets.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

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