UFC Betting Glossary: Terms You Need to Know

A

Action - The total amount of money you've got riding on fights across a single event or multiple bets. When a bettor says "I've got $500 in action tonight," they mean they've placed $500 worth of bets across the entire fight card, whether that's one big bet or spread across multiple wagers.

Advance - A fighter moving forward and controlling the distance while initiating offensive action. Judges often reward the fighter who's advancing and pressing the action, even if they're absorbing more strikes, because octagon control matters in close rounds.

Against the Spread (ATS) - Betting against the point spread, which is extremely rare in UFC but common in other sports. In UFC, you'll occasionally see round spreads where you're betting whether a fight will go over or under a certain number of rounds.

Aggressor - The fighter who pushes the pace, initiates exchanges, and controls the tempo of the fight. Being the aggressor doesn't always mean you're winning, but judges absolutely love aggression, especially when scoring close rounds.

Adjusted Line - See Alternate Lines. These are modified betting lines with different odds from the standard offering, allowing you to buy a better number at the cost of reduced payout or take a worse number for increased payout.

Alternate Lines (Alt Lines) - Modified betting lines that give you different options from the standard line. For example, if the standard round total is 2.5, you can bet Over 1.5 at lower odds for a safer bet, or Over 3.5 at higher odds for a riskier play with bigger payout. These are essential tools for finding value and managing risk.

American Odds - The standard odds format in the United States using plus (+) and minus (-) numbers. Negative numbers show the favorite (bet $200 to win $100 at -200), while positive numbers show the underdog (bet $100 to win $200 at +200). Understanding American odds is essential for calculating potential returns and comparing value across different books.

Arbitrage (Arb) - The practice of betting both sides of a fight at different sportsbooks to guarantee profit regardless of the outcome. This exploits pricing differences between books, but it's rare in UFC because oddsmakers are sharp and books quickly catch arbitrage bettors and limit their accounts.

Armbar - A submission technique where a fighter hyperextends their opponent's elbow joint by controlling the arm and using their hips for leverage. It's one of the most common finishes in UFC and a popular method of victory bet, especially for fighters with strong Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu backgrounds.

Athletic Commission - The state or local regulatory body that oversees MMA events, assigns judges and referees, enforces rules, and ensures fighter safety and fair competition. Different commissions have different standards, which affects everything from drug testing protocols to judging quality.

B

Backdoor Cover - When last-second action changes the betting outcome in your favor when you thought you were going to lose. For example, your fighter is losing on the scorecards but lands a knockout in the final seconds, turning your losing bet into a winner. It's the opposite of a bad beat.

Bad Beat - Losing a bet in the most painful, unlikely way possible after you appeared to have it won. The classic UFC bad beat is when your fighter dominates for four rounds, is clearly winning on all scorecards, then gets knocked out with 10 seconds left in Round 5. It's gambling's cruelest punishment.

Bankroll - The total amount of money you've specifically set aside for betting, separate from your living expenses and savings. Proper bankroll management dictates you should never risk more than 1-5% of your bankroll on a single fight, protecting you from going broke during inevitable losing streaks.

Bet Tracker - A spreadsheet, app, or notebook where you record every bet you make, including the odds, stake, result, and relevant notes. It's absolutely essential for measuring your actual betting performance versus your perceived performance, helping you identify which bet types are profitable and which are bleeding money.

Betting Against the Public - The strategy of fading (betting against) the popular pick that's attracting the majority of casual money. The public loves betting favorites and hype trains, so sharp money often goes the other way, finding value on underdogs that are being underestimated by the market.

Betting Market Efficiency - How quickly and accurately betting odds reflect the true probability of outcomes based on all available information. UFC betting markets are significantly less efficient than major sports like NFL or NBA, creating more opportunities for sharp bettors to find edges and exploit market inefficiencies before they're corrected.

Betting Model - A systematic approach or statistical algorithm for predicting fight outcomes and finding betting value. Models can range from simple (tracking fighter stats and comparing matchups) to extremely complex (machine learning algorithms) that factor in hundreds of variables to identify profitable betting opportunities.

BJJ (Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu) - A ground-fighting martial art focused on using leverage, technique, and submissions to defeat opponents, even from defensive positions like being on your back. Fighters with strong BJJ are extremely dangerous off their backs and can turn fights around instantly with submission finishes.

Bladed Stance - A fighting stance where the fighter stands sideways with minimal body surface exposed to the opponent. It's common in karate, taekwondo, and traditional martial arts backgrounds, offering better defensive positioning but potentially less power generation on strikes compared to a squared-up stance.

Books/Bookmaker/Bookie - The sportsbook or betting company where you place your wagers. In legal US markets, this includes operators like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGR, Caesars, and others. Finding the best UFC betting sites with competitive odds and reliable payouts is crucial for long-term success.

Breakeven Point - The win percentage you need to achieve at given odds just to break even (neither profit nor loss) over the long term. At standard -110 odds, you need to win 52.4% of your bets just to break even after accounting for the juice. Understanding breakeven helps you assess whether you have a true edge.

Buy Points - Paying extra juice (vigorish) to move the round total or line in your favor. For example, instead of betting Over 2.5 rounds at -110, you might pay -130 to get Over 2.0 rounds, buying yourself a half-round of cushion. It's expensive but can be worth it on key numbers.

C

Cage Control - The act of controlling position, movement, and where the fight takes place inside the octagon. Judges score cage control as a tiebreaker when effective striking and grappling are equal, making it crucial in close rounds. The fighter who dictates where and how the fight happens usually wins close decisions.

Cage Geography - Understanding how position within the octagon affects fight dynamics. Fighters with backs against the cage have reduced escape routes and are easier to finish, while the center offers maximum mobility and defensive options.

Cage Size - UFC uses two different octagon sizes: a 25-foot cage (smaller, favors grapplers who can cut off the cage easier) and the standard 30-foot cage (favors strikers who need more room to move). Cage size significantly impacts fight dynamics and betting strategy, especially for specific fighter styles.

Cage Warriors - A UK-based MMA promotion that serves as one of the primary feeder leagues for the UFC. Many future UFC stars cut their teeth in Cage Warriors, making it valuable prospect-watching territory for identifying future betting opportunities before the market catches up to their talent.

Camp - The training facility and coaching team where a fighter prepares. Elite camps like AKA, American Top Team, and City Kickboxing produce consistently successful fighters and create betting edges when their systematic approaches are underpriced by the market.

Canadian Line - Another term for decimal odds format, popular in Canada and Europe. A 2.50 line means you win $2.50 total for every $1 wagered (including your original stake returned). It's often easier for calculating returns than American odds.

Cardio - A fighter's endurance, gas tank, and ability to maintain pace and power output throughout the fight. Championship fights absolutely require elite cardio to survive five rounds, and fighters with poor cardio create massive live betting opportunities when they fade in later rounds.

Cash Out - A feature some sportsbooks offer that allows you to settle your bet early before the fight ends, locking in profit or cutting your losses. It's useful for hedging or taking guaranteed money, but the book's cash-out offers are always designed to favor them, not you.

Chalk - Betting terminology for backing the favorite. When someone says "I'm eating chalk tonight," they mean they're betting heavy favorites across the card. Chalk eaters need massive bankrolls because you risk a lot to win a little, and one upset can wipe out multiple wins.

Championship Rounds - Rounds 4 and 5 in title fights, which separate elite fighters from everyone else. Only fighters with championship-level cardio and mental toughness survive these rounds at full effectiveness, making them critical for betting on five-round main events.

Championship Cardio - Elite endurance that allows fighters to maintain pace and power through five full rounds. Championship cardio is rare and extremely valuable, separating true title contenders from fighters who fade in rounds 4-5.

Chasing Losses - The catastrophic mistake of betting more money than usual to try to recover previous losses. It's the fastest path to going completely broke because you're betting emotionally instead of strategically, making increasingly desperate bets with poor risk management.

Circle Out - The defensive technique of moving laterally away from an opponent's power side to avoid strikes. Fighters with excellent footwork circle out effectively, while flat-footed fighters get caught circling into power punches.

Chinny - Describing a fighter with a weak chin who gets knocked out easily. Once a fighter develops a reputation for being chinny, it becomes a major betting red flag because they're perpetually one punch away from losing, no matter how well they're performing in the fight.

Clinch - When fighters are tied up standing, controlling each other against the cage or in open space. Effective clinch work involves dirty boxing (short punches and elbows), knee strikes, and setting up takedowns. Some fighters excel in the clinch while others struggle there.

Closing Line - The final odds available right before the fight starts. If you bet early and the line moves in your favor by closing time, you've captured Closing Line Value (CLV), which is one of the most important indicators of long-term betting success.

Closing Line Value (CLV) - Beating the closing number is the gold standard of sharp betting. If you bet a fighter at +150 and the line closes at +120, you found value because the market ultimately agreed the fighter had a better chance than the odds you got. Consistently capturing CLV means you're finding real edges.

Cognitive Bias - Mental shortcuts and thinking errors that sabotage your betting decisions. Recency bias (overweighting recent events), confirmation bias (seeking only information that confirms your beliefs), and favorite-longshot bias (overvaluing favorites, undervaluing underdogs) are bankroll killers.

Combo Prop - A parlay that combines multiple related prop bets into one wager for a much larger payout. The most common is method of victory + specific round (e.g., "Fighter A by KO in Round 2"), which pays massive odds but requires hitting both the method and the exact round.

Commission - See Athletic Commission. The regulatory body overseeing the event, assigning officials, and enforcing rules.

Consensus Pick - The fighter that the majority of bettors are backing, typically the favorite or the latest hype train. The consensus pick is often overvalued because casual money inflates the line, creating value on the other side for contrarian bettors.

Contender Series - Dana White's Tuesday night fight series where prospects compete for UFC contracts. Winners who earn contracts are often undervalued in their first few UFC fights because the market hasn't fully priced in their talent yet, creating betting opportunities.

Contrarian Betting - The strategy of betting against the public consensus and fading popular picks. Contrarian betting often finds value on underdogs that are being underestimated because casual bettors are overloading the favorite side.

Correlated Parlay - A parlay where the outcomes are related or dependent on each other. For example, betting "Fighter A wins" + "Fight goes Under 2.5 rounds" makes sense if Fighter A is a knockout artist, because these outcomes support each other. Smart parlay construction uses correlation.

Correlation - The relationship between two betting outcomes. Positive correlation means one outcome makes the other more likely (finisher winning + fight ending early), while negative correlation means one outcome makes the other less likely (fight going to decision + knockout prop hitting).

Counter-Striker - A fighter who waits for opponents to attack, then counters their offense with precise strikes. Counter-strikers frustrate aggressive opponents and can be dangerous bets against fighters who need to pressure, making them a stylistic nightmare for certain matchups.

Cover - When your bet wins. "I need this fighter to finish in Round 3 to cover" means you need that specific outcome for your bet to be successful and pay out.

D

D'Arce Choke - A front headlock submission that cuts off blood flow to the brain by squeezing the carotid arteries. It's a common finish from front headlock positions and scrambles, particularly effective for fighters with long arms and strong grappling systems.

Dana White Privilege - When UFC president Dana White gives certain fighters favorable matchmaking, promotional push, or second chances they might not otherwise deserve. It affects betting lines because these fighters often get overvalued by the market due to their promotional push.

Dead Money - Casual bettors who consistently lose money over time. Their action inflates lines on popular fighters (favorites, hype trains, local heroes), which creates value on the other side for sharp bettors who understand the market is overreacting to public sentiment.

Decision - A fight that goes the full scheduled distance without a finish, leaving the outcome to the judges' scorecards. Decisions can be Unanimous (all three judges agree), Split (judges disagree 2-1), or Majority (two judges agree, one scores it a draw).

Decimal Odds - The European odds format where the number represents your total return (including stake) for every dollar wagered. A 3.00 line means you get $3 back total ($2 profit plus your $1 stake) for every dollar bet. It's often easier for quick calculations than American odds.

Defensive Striking - The percentage of opponent's strikes that a fighter successfully avoids or blocks. High defensive striking percentages (80%+) indicate a fighter is extremely hard to hit cleanly, which means they're less likely to get finished and more likely to survive into later rounds.

Depth Perception - A fighter's ability to judge distance accurately. Fighters with poor depth perception whiff frequently and struggle to land clean strikes, while those with excellent depth perception land at higher percentages.

Dime - Betting slang for a $1,000 wager. "I put a dime on the underdog" means you bet $1,000 on the dog. This is typically big money for most bettors but standard action for high-stakes players.

Dinger - Your absolute biggest bet, the hammer play you're most confident in on a card. The term comes from baseball slang but has been adopted by MMA bettors to describe their most aggressive position of the night.

Distance - When a fight goes the full scheduled rounds without a finish. "Will the fight go the distance?" is one of the most popular prop bets, especially useful when you have a strong read on whether the fight will end early or go to the judges.

Dog - Short for underdog, the fighter expected to lose based on the odds. Betting dogs (underdogs with plus odds) is where the value lives in UFC betting because the public systematically overvalues favorites.

Draw - An extremely rare outcome where the judges score the fight completely even, with no winner declared. Most sportsbooks refund moneyline bets when a draw occurs, though some books offer draw as a separate betting option at very long odds.

E

Early Stoppage - When a referee stops a fight prematurely, before the fighter is truly unable to defend themselves. Some refs are notorious for early stoppages, which can affect betting outcomes and create controversy, especially when the stopped fighter was still coherent and defending.

Edge - Your advantage over the sportsbook on a particular bet, the reason you expect to profit long-term. Finding consistent edges through superior analysis, better information, or identifying market inefficiencies is the entire point of sports betting.

Efficient Market Hypothesis - The theory that betting odds perfectly reflect all available information, leaving no opportunity for profit beyond luck. While this is mostly true for major sports like NFL, UFC markets are significantly less efficient, creating exploitable edges for informed bettors.

Embedded - UFC's behind-the-scenes video series that follows fighters through fight week. Watching Embedded can reveal critical information about weight cuts, fighter mood, injuries, and preparation that the market might not have fully priced in yet.

Even Money - Odds of +100 or 1:1, where you risk and win the same amount. Bet $100 to win $100. Even money bets are rare in UFC because the books always try to charge juice on both sides.

Expected Goals (xG) - A concept borrowed from soccer analytics. The UFC equivalent would be expected significant strikes, expected takedowns, or expected control time based on historical performance and matchup analysis. It's about what should have happened versus what actually happened.

Expected Value (EV) - The mathematical average outcome of a bet if you made it infinite times. Positive EV (+EV) bets are profitable long-term even if they lose sometimes. Negative EV (-EV) bets lose money long-term no matter how they feel. Only make +EV bets.

Exposed - When you've bet too much of your bankroll on one outcome or correlated outcomes. "I'm too exposed on this underdog parlay" means you've risked too much on bets that would all lose together, creating dangerous overexposure to a single bad result.

Eye Poke - An accidental (or sometimes intentional) finger to the opponent's eye, which is illegal but happens frequently. Eye pokes can pause the fight for recovery time, affect vision for the rest of the fight, or even end the fight if the damage is severe, all of which impacts live betting dramatically.

F

Fade - Betting against someone or something, whether that's a specific fighter, a public trend, or a betting consensus. "I'm fading the public favorite tonight" means you're betting against the fighter that's attracting the most casual money, which is often a profitable contrarian strategy.

Favorite - The fighter expected to win according to the oddsmakers, indicated by minus odds (e.g., -200, -300). Favorites require you to risk more than you stand to win, and the public systematically overvalues favorites, creating value on the underdog side.

Feint - A fake strike or movement designed to bait a reaction from the opponent, setting up real attacks. High-IQ fighters use feints masterfully to break down defensive shells, control distance, and create openings for significant strikes.

Fight IQ - A fighter's ability to read situations, make tactical adjustments, and execute intelligent game plans under pressure. High fight IQ fighters adapt mid-fight and find solutions to problems, while low fight IQ fighters stubbornly stick to losing strategies.

Fighter Profile - Your comprehensive research breakdown on a fighter including their stats, tendencies, strengths, weaknesses, fight history, and stylistic matchups. Building detailed fighter profiles is essential for handicapping fights and finding edges that the market misses.

Finish - Any fight ending before the final bell through knockout, technical knockout, or submission. Fighters with high finish rates create betting value on method of victory props and under bets on round totals.

Finish Rate - The percentage of a fighter's wins that come by stoppage (KO/TKO or submission) rather than decision. Divisions with high finish rates like heavyweight create more value on under bets, while decision-heavy divisions favor over bets on round totals.

First Blood - A novelty prop bet on which fighter will draw blood first. It's mostly luck-based and offers minimal betting value, but some books still offer it for entertainment purposes on big fights.

Fixed Odds - Odds that are locked in at the moment you place your bet and don't change even if the line moves afterward. This is standard for most sports betting—you get the odds showing when you click submit, not the closing odds.

Flat Betting - A conservative bankroll management strategy where you bet the exact same amount on every fight regardless of your confidence level. It eliminates the risk of over-betting on "sure things" that lose, though more advanced strategies like unit sizing can be more profitable.

Floor - Getting taken down to the mat. "He hit the floor hard in Round 1" means the fighter was taken down and likely spent significant time on their back defending.

Footwork - How a fighter moves their feet to create angles, control distance, avoid strikes, and set up their own offense. Elite footwork makes fighters extremely hard to hit and allows them to land strikes while staying out of danger.

Forced Fighter - A late replacement fighter stepping in on short notice (typically less than 2-4 weeks) to save a card. These fighters are often undervalued by the market because they theoretically have less time to prepare, but some fighters thrive on short notice.

Fractional Odds - British odds format showing profit relative to stake. 3/1 odds mean you win $3 profit for every $1 wagered (plus your stake back). It's less common in US betting but still appears on some international books.

Front Kick - A straight kick thrown to the body or face, made famous by Anderson Silva's highlight-reel knockout of Vitor Belfort. It's less common than roundhouse kicks but can be devastating when landed cleanly.

Future/Futures Bet - A long-term wager on outcomes that won't be decided for weeks or months, like betting on who will be champion by year-end or which prospect will win their next three fights. Futures tie up your bankroll for extended periods but can offer massive value if you identify rising stars early.

G

Game Plan - The strategic approach a fighter and their coaches develop for a specific opponent. Smart bettors watch for fighters who abandon their game plan mid-fight due to frustration or getting hurt, as it often signals the beginning of their downfall.

Gassed - When a fighter runs out of cardio and can't maintain their pace or power output anymore. Spotting fatigue in real-time is a huge live betting edge because a gassed fighter becomes increasingly vulnerable to finishes and losing decisions.

Gate - The total ticket sales revenue for an event. While it doesn't directly affect betting, it indicates event popularity and can correlate with public betting volume and line movement.

Getting Down - Placing your bet, especially early to capture the best line. "I got down early at better odds" means you bet when the line was more favorable, before sharp money moved it.

Glass Jaw - See Chinny. A fighter who gets knocked out easily and can't take a punch. Once labeled with a glass jaw, fighters become permanent betting risks because they're always one shot away from going to sleep.

Goat - Greatest Of All Time, typically referring to legends like GSP, Jon Jones, Anderson Silva, or Khabib. While fun for debate, GOAT status is often overrated for betting purposes because markets overprice their name value.

Goof - An affectionate/mocking nickname for UFC president Dana White used by fans and media. His promotional decisions and public statements can affect betting lines and fighter perception.

Grappling - The umbrella term for all non-striking aspects of fighting: wrestling, clinch work, takedowns, ground control, and submissions. Understanding grappling styles is essential for handicapping because wrestling typically beats striking when skill levels are equal.

Grind - A long-term betting approach focused on accumulating small edges through volume rather than hitting big parlays. It's not sexy or exciting, but consistent grinding with proper bankroll management is how professional bettors actually make money.

Grinder - A fighter who wins ugly through superior wrestling, control, and cardio rather than exciting finishes. Grinders frustrate strikers and often win boring unanimous decisions, making them valuable bets when the market underprices their systematic dominance.

Ground and Pound - Striking from a dominant top position on the ground, combining positional control with damaging strikes. Effective ground and pound wins rounds decisively and can lead to TKO finishes or submission setups.

Guillotine Choke - A front headlock submission attempt that's extremely common in scrambles and during takedown attempts. It's a high-percentage finish for fighters with long arms and strong grappling, often appearing in method of victory props.

H

Hail Mary - A desperation strike or submission attempt thrown when a fighter is losing and needs a miracle. "He threw a Hail Mary spinning elbow in Round 5" means the fighter gambled everything on one huge shot because they knew they were down on the scorecards.

Handle - The total amount of money wagered on a specific fight or entire card across all bets at a sportsbook. High handle events have sharper, more efficient lines because there's more professional money shaping the odds.

Handicapping - The art and science of analyzing fights to find betting edges through superior research and matchup analysis. Effective handicapping combines statistical analysis, tape study, and understanding fight dynamics that casual bettors miss.

Haymaker - A wild, looping power punch thrown with maximum force and terrible technique. Haymakers have low accuracy but massive knockout potential—fighters who rely on haymakers often gas out quickly or get countered by technically superior strikers.

Head Kick - A kick aimed at the opponent's head, one of the most spectacular finishes in MMA. Head kick knockouts are rare enough to offer betting value on method of victory props, especially for flexible fighters with kicking backgrounds.

Heavy Favorite - A fighter with extremely short odds like -400, -500, or worse. Betting heavy favorites is capital-intensive and risky because you're risking $400 to win $100, and one upset wipes out four wins. These lines often represent trap situations.

Hedge - Betting the opposite side of your original wager to guarantee profit or minimize potential loss. For example, if you bet Fighter A pre-fight at +200 and they're winning going into the final round, you might bet Fighter B live to lock in profit either way.

Hedge Strategy - Your systematic approach to deciding when and how to hedge positions. Some sharp bettors never hedge (they trust their original analysis), while others always hedge when they can lock guaranteed profit, and some take a middle approach based on specific situations.

High-Low - A striking combination that attacks different levels, forcing the opponent to defend both high and low simultaneously. Classic examples include body kick followed by head punch or leg kick followed by overhand right.

Historical Overlay - Comparing the current betting line to historical lines for similar stylistic matchups or previous fights between these fighters. Finding situations where today's line differs significantly from comparable historical matchups can reveal market inefficiencies.

Hook - The .5 in betting lines (like 2.5 rounds or 1.5 rounds) that prevents pushes by ensuring there's no exact number that could tie. Round totals almost always have hooks because you can't have half a round, so there's always a winner and loser.

Hype Train - An overrated prospect or fighter whose odds are inflated due to promotional push and public excitement rather than their actual skill level. Hype trains are excellent fade candidates because casual bettors overvalue recent knockouts and highlights while sharp bettors recognize the competition level was weak.

I

Implied Probability - The win percentage that betting odds suggest. -200 odds = 66.7% implied probability that the fighter wins. Understanding implied probability helps you determine whether your assessment of a fight's likelihood differs from the market's assessment, which is where value exists.

In-Play Betting - Another term for live betting during the fight. Odds change constantly based on what's happening in the cage, creating opportunities for informed bettors who can read fights better than the algorithms setting live odds.

Iron Chin - A fighter who's never been knocked out or dropped despite taking heavy shots throughout their career. An iron chin is a massive betting advantage in wars and slugfests because the fighter can take risks and trade shots without fear of getting starched.

In the Money - Your bet is currently winning or has already won. "I'm in the money after Round 1" means your bet is looking good based on how the fight is progressing, though obviously nothing is guaranteed until the final bell.

J

Jab - A quick, straight punch thrown with the lead hand (left hand for orthodox fighters, right hand for southpaws). The jab is the most important strike in combat sports—it sets up power shots, controls distance, disrupts rhythm, and accumulates points with judges.

Judo - A Japanese martial art focused on throws and takedowns. Fighters with judo backgrounds like Ronda Rousey, Fedor Emelianenko, and Kayla Harrison excel at explosive takedowns and transitions, making them dangerous in scrambles.

Judge - One of three officials scoring the fight using the 10-Point Must System. Judges determine the winner when fights go to decision, and understanding what judges look for and their individual biases is crucial for betting decisions.

Judging Bias - Systematic tendencies judges show toward certain styles, hometown fighters, or champions. Judging bias is real and exploitable—some judges favor striking over grappling, some give excessive credit to forward pressure, and some unconsciously favor the champion in close rounds.

Juice - The bookmaker's commission built into the odds, also called vig or vigorish. Standard juice is -110 on both sides (bet $110 to win $100), meaning the book takes roughly 4.5% regardless of outcome. Finding reduced juice books saves significant money long-term.

Jiu-Jitsu - See BJJ. The ground-fighting martial art that revolutionized MMA and remains one of the most important skills for modern fighters, especially for finishing fights via submission.

Just Bleed - A fan mentality that values violent brawls and knockouts over technical fighting and grappling. It originated from a famous UFC audience member and represents the casual bettor mindset that overvalues aggression and finishers while undervaluing technical wrestlers and grinders.

K

Kelly Criterion - A mathematical bankroll management formula that calculates the optimal bet size based on your perceived edge and the odds offered. It's designed to maximize long-term bankroll growth while minimizing risk of ruin, though many bettors use fractional Kelly (betting half or quarter Kelly) because full Kelly can be too aggressive and create massive variance.

Key Number - Round totals that frequently decide bets because so many fights end at those exact points. In UFC, 1.5 and 2.5 are the key numbers because a huge percentage of finishes happen in Round 1 or Round 2, making these the most important lines to get right when betting round totals.

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) - The specific metrics that best predict success for both fighters and bettors. For fighters, critical KPIs include striking defense, takedown defense, and finish rate. For bettors, the most important KPIs are ROI (return on investment), CLV (closing line value), and win rate at specific odds ranges.

Kickboxing - A striking-focused martial art using punches and kicks. Dutch kickboxing emphasizes aggressive combinations and forward pressure, while American kickboxing tends more toward point-fighting. Understanding kickboxing styles helps predict striking exchanges and matchup outcomes.

Knee - A devastating strike using the knee, particularly effective in the clinch or against grounded opponents (depending on rules). Knees to the body can break ribs and kill the gas tank, while knees to the head can produce instant knockouts, making them popular in method of victory props.

Knockout (KO) - When a fighter is rendered unconscious by strikes, resulting in an immediate stoppage. Clean knockouts are the most definitive finishes and create the most dramatic betting outcomes, especially when a heavy favorite gets starched by an underdog.

KO Artist - A fighter whose game is built around knockout power and finishing fights early. KO artists have high finish rates and create betting value on method of victory props and under bets on round totals, though their one-dimensional approach can be exploited by defensive-minded opponents.

KO Power - Punching or kicking power that can end fights with a single shot. KO power doesn't always correlate with muscle mass or size—it's often about technique, timing, and speed. Understanding which fighters have genuine one-punch power versus high-volume strikers without finishing ability is crucial for handicapping.

L

Late Notice - When fighters accept bouts with less than typical preparation time, usually under 3-4 weeks. Late notice creates unique betting dynamics because some fighters thrive on it while others struggle without full camps.

Late Replacement - A fighter stepping in on extremely short notice (usually less than two weeks) to save a card after someone pulls out. Late replacements have unique betting trends—they're often undervalued because the market assumes poor preparation, but some fighters thrive on short notice because they stay in shape year-round.

Lay - Betting on the favorite and laying odds, meaning you risk more than you stand to win. "I'm laying -300 on the champ" means you're risking $300 to win $100. Laying heavy odds is risky because one loss wipes out multiple wins.

Layoff - The time period between fights, typically measured in months. Long layoffs of 12+ months create ring rust concerns, though the actual impact varies wildly by fighter—some come back sharp, others look completely shot.

Layoff Factor - How much you adjust your handicapping based on a fighter's inactivity. Every bettor weights ring rust differently based on their research and experience, making it a subjective but important element of analyzing comebacks and returns.

Leg Kick - A kick targeting the opponent's thigh or calf that accumulates damage over time. Effective leg kicks kill an opponent's mobility, power generation, and ability to check subsequent kicks, often leading to late-round TKO finishes when the leg completely gives out.

Leverage - Using correlated bets or strategically structured props to maximize upside while managing downside risk. Advanced bettors use leverage to create asymmetric betting positions where they can win big if right but lose small if wrong, particularly through intelligent parlay structuring.

Limit - The maximum bet a sportsbook will accept on a specific fight or market. Sharp bettors who consistently win get their limits reduced dramatically—going from $5,000 max bets down to $50 or even getting completely banned is common for successful UFC bettors.

Line - The odds offered by the sportsbook on a specific outcome. "What's the line on this fight?" is asking what odds are available. Lines move based on betting action, injuries, news, and sharp money coming in.

Line Movement - How odds change from when they open to when they close. Understanding why lines move is crucial—sharp money causes reverse line movement, public money causes conventional movement, and fight week news can cause explosive line shifts.

Line Shopping - Comparing odds across multiple sportsbooks to find the best price available on your bet. Line shopping is absolutely essential for long-term profitability—getting -110 instead of -120, or +180 instead of +150, adds up to massive profit differences over hundreds of bets.

Live Betting - Wagering on fights in real-time as they're happening, with odds updating every second based on the action. Live betting creates enormous edges for bettors who can read fights better than the algorithms, especially when spotting momentum shifts or fatigue.

Live Dog - An underdog that has a legitimate, realistic path to victory despite the odds suggesting they're a long shot. Identifying live dogs is where the real value lives because the market systematically underprices fighters with specific stylistic advantages that casual bettors don't recognize.

Lock - A bet you're extremely confident in and view as essentially guaranteed to win. Spoiler alert: there are no locks in fighting. Anyone can get caught, judges can rob you, freak injuries happen, and even the "sure things" lose more often than bettors want to admit.

Long Shot - A massive underdog with odds of +400, +500, or higher. Long shots offer huge payouts but win infrequently, requiring excellent bankroll management and selective betting to be profitable long-term. Some long shots have genuine value when the market drastically overrates the favorite.

Losing Streak - Multiple consecutive losses, whether for a fighter or a bettor. Fighters on losing streaks are often undervalued because the market overreacts to recent results without considering the quality of competition or fight circumstances. For bettors, losing streaks are inevitable—the key is maintaining discipline and not chasing losses.

Low-Blow - An illegal strike to the groin that immediately pauses the fight and gives the fouled fighter up to five minutes to recover. Low blows can completely change fight momentum and create live betting opportunities when a dominant fighter loses their rhythm after the stoppage.

M

Main Card - The final portion of a UFC event featuring the highest-profile fights, typically broadcast on PPV or premium channels. Main card fights usually have five bouts and feature better fighters, tighter lines, and more public money than prelim fights.

Main Event - The final fight of the night, which in UFC is always scheduled for five rounds regardless of whether it's a title fight or not. Five-round fights have completely different betting dynamics than three-round fights due to cardio requirements and pacing.

Majority Decision - A decision where two judges score the fight for one fighter while the third judge scores it a draw. The fighter who won on two scorecards is declared the winner, but it indicates an extremely close fight that could have gone either way.

Market Maker - The sportsbook that sets the opening line that other books follow and copy. Pinnacle is the market maker for UFC—they post sharp opening lines and accept huge limits from professional bettors. Beating Pinnacle's closing line consistently means you're genuinely sharp.

Markov Chain - A statistical modeling technique that some advanced bettors use to predict fight outcomes based on historical fight data and state transitions. It's complex, nerdy, and most bettors don't need it, but it can identify subtle patterns in how fights flow between positions and outcomes.

Matchmaker - UFC employees Sean Shelby and Mick Maynard who book all the fights. Understanding matchmaking patterns—which prospects get protected, which veterans get sacrificed, which camps get favorable matchups—creates betting edges because the market doesn't always recognize when a fighter is being set up to win or lose.

Matchup Nightmare - A fighter whose style perfectly counters their opponent's approach, creating an almost unwinnable stylistic puzzle. For example, an elite wrestler versus a pure striker with terrible takedown defense is a matchup nightmare—the striker might be more skilled overall, but the wrestler neutralizes everything they do.

Max Bet - The largest wager a sportsbook will accept on a specific fight or market. When you consistently win, books slash your max bet from thousands down to double digits or simply ban you entirely. Getting max bet limited is actually a badge of honor proving you're beating them.

Meta Game - Understanding what other bettors are thinking, predicting how the public will bet, and positioning yourself to exploit their predictable biases. The meta game is betting against betting psychology rather than just analyzing the fight itself.

Method of Victory - How the fight ends: KO/TKO, Submission, or Decision. Method of victory props offer better value than straight moneyline bets when you have strong conviction about how a fight ends, not just who wins.

Middle - Betting both sides of a fight at different numbers to create a situation where you can win both bets. For example, betting Over 2.5 rounds at one book and Under 3.5 at another means if the fight ends in exactly Round 3, both bets win. Middles are rare and require significant line discrepancies between books.

MMA Math - The flawed logic that transitive property applies to fighting: "Fighter A beat Fighter B, Fighter B beat Fighter C, therefore Fighter A beats Fighter C." Styles make fights, not rankings or linear progression. MMA math doesn't work and is one of the most common mistakes casual bettors make.

Momentum Shift - When the flow and control of a fight changes dramatically, usually after a knockdown, successful takedown, or dominant round. Recognizing momentum shifts in real-time creates massive live betting edges because the odds often lag behind what's actually happening.

Moneyline (ML) - The simplest and most common UFC bet: picking who wins the fight straight up, regardless of how it happens. Moneyline odds show the favorite (minus odds) and underdog (plus odds).

Movement - Can refer to line movement (odds changing) or fighter movement (footwork and positioning). Context determines which meaning applies.

Muay Thai - The "art of eight limbs" from Thailand that uses punches, kicks, elbows, knees, and clinch work. Muay Thai fighters bring aggressive, high-damage striking with devastating elbows and knees in the clinch, making them dangerous in close-range exchanges.

N

Negative EV (-EV) - A bet with negative expected value, meaning you lose money on it long-term even if you win sometimes. All casino games are -EV. Most parlay bets are -EV. Avoiding emotional, low-value bets keeps you away from -EV traps.

Nickel - Betting slang for a $500 wager. "I put a nickel on the dog" means you bet $500 on the underdog. It's significant money for most bettors but modest for high-stakes players.

No Action - Your bet is canceled and your stake is refunded. This happens when fights are called off before they start, ruled no contest, or in some cases when a fighter misses weight badly and the fight is canceled entirely.

No Contest (NC) - A fight result that's voided and declared invalid due to illegal strikes, failed drug tests discovered later, or other disqualifying circumstances. Most sportsbooks refund all bets when a fight is ruled no contest, though some books have specific no contest betting options.

Northcutt Syndrome - Named after Sage Northcutt's early UFC hype that didn't match reality. It describes hyped prospects who are actually overrated but draw massive public betting due to promotional push, highlight reels, or physical appearance. These fighters create excellent fade opportunities.

O

Octagon - UFC's trademarked eight-sided cage where fights take place. The octagon comes in two sizes: 25-foot (smaller, favors grapplers) and 30-foot (standard, favors strikers). Cage size significantly impacts fight dynamics and betting strategy.

Octagon Jitters - Nervousness and anxiety affecting a fighter's performance, particularly common for UFC debuts or first main events. Octagon jitters can cause fighters to abandon game plans or freeze under pressure, creating betting opportunities when identified.

Octagon Control - Controlling the center of the cage and dictating where the fight takes place. Octagon control is the lowest-priority scoring criterion, only considered when effective striking and grappling are completely equal, but it frequently determines close rounds.

Odds - The price and payout structure for a bet, showing who's favored, who's the underdog, and what you stand to win. Understanding how to read odds and calculate implied probability is fundamental to finding value.

Oddsmaker - The person or algorithm responsible for setting the opening betting lines. UFC oddsmakers are extremely sharp and incorporate vast amounts of data, but they're still beatable with superior analysis and information.

Off the Board - When a fight is pulled from the betting menu and no action is being accepted. Fights go off the board due to injury news, weight cut disasters, controversy, or the book deciding the risk is too high to offer odds.

On Tilt - Betting emotionally and irrationally after losses, making increasingly desperate bets to chase your money back. Going on tilt is the death spiral of bankrolls—you're betting with your emotions instead of your brain, making terrible decisions that compound losses.

Opening Line/Odds - The very first odds posted by the sportsbook when betting opens for a fight. Sharp bettors attack soft opening lines before the market adjusts, making opening line value one of the most profitable edges in UFC betting.

Orthodox - The standard right-handed fighting stance with the left foot forward and left hand leading. Roughly 90% of fighters are orthodox, making orthodox vs. orthodox the most common matchup.

Outright - Another term for futures betting, typically referring to championship or long-term outcome bets. "Who will be bantamweight champion by year-end?" is an outright bet.

Over - Betting that the fight lasts longer than the posted total. Over 2.5 rounds means the fight must reach Round 3. Over bets win when fights go to decision or end late.

Overbet - Betting a larger portion of your bankroll than your edge justifies, risking financial ruin during inevitable losing streaks. Overbetting is one of the fastest ways to go broke even when making +EV bets because variance will eventually destroy you.

Overdog - Another term for favorite. The fighter expected to win based on the odds.

Overreaction - When the betting market overcorrects to recent news, fight results, or public sentiment. Sharp bettors specifically look for market overreactions because they create temporary mispricing before the line settles at the correct number.

Overround - The bookmaker's built-in edge created by the juice on both sides of a bet. A typical UFC fight has roughly 5% overround, meaning the implied probabilities of both sides add up to 105% instead of 100%, with the book keeping that 5% edge.

P

Parlay - A single bet combining multiple picks where all selections must win for the bet to pay out. Parlays offer massive payouts but are exponentially harder to hit because one wrong pick loses everything. Smart parlay construction focuses on correlated outcomes and avoiding low-value legs.

Pay-Per-View (PPV) - Premium UFC events (numbered events like UFC 300) that require additional payment to watch. PPV cards feature the best fighters and biggest matchups, which means tighter betting lines, more sharp money, and harder markets to beat compared to Fight Night cards.

Payout - The total amount of money returned from a winning bet, including both your original stake and your profit. A $100 bet at +200 odds returns a $300 payout ($200 profit plus your $100 stake back).

Percentage Play - A bankroll management approach where you bet a percentage of your current bankroll rather than flat amounts. This automatically scales your bets up as you win and down as you lose, protecting against ruin while maximizing growth during winning streaks.

Pick'em (PK) - A fight where both fighters have essentially even odds, usually around -110 or +100 on each side. True pick'em fights are rare in UFC because there's almost always a slight favorite, but they represent the market's uncertainty about the outcome.

Pillow Hands - See Pillow Fists. Fighters with zero finishing power who accumulate points without ever threatening a knockout.

Pillow Fists - A fighter with zero knockout power who wins decisions through volume and technique but never hurts opponents. Pillow-fisted fighters are excellent over bets on round totals because their fights almost always go to decision.

Pitter-Patter - High-volume but low-power striking that looks busy and racks up strike counts without causing significant damage. Pitter-patter strikers can win on the scorecards through sheer output, but they struggle to finish fights.

Plus Money - Positive odds indicating the underdog or any bet where you stand to win more than you risk. +150 means bet $100 to win $150. Plus money bets are where value lives because favorites are systematically overvalued by the public.

Point Deduction - When a referee takes a point from a fighter for repeated fouls, illegal strikes, or egregious rule violations. Point deductions can swing close fights and dramatically affect betting outcomes, especially in fights that go to decision.

Point Fighting - A strategy focused on winning rounds through volume, technique, and movement rather than hunting for the finish. Point fighters accumulate small advantages and win decisions, making them good over bets but frustrating for "Just Bleed" fans.

Poisson Distribution - An advanced statistical model used to predict the probability of finishes occurring in specific rounds based on historical data. It's complex mathematics that most bettors don't need, but it can identify subtle edges in round betting and method of victory props.

Positive EV (+EV) - A bet with positive expected value, meaning it's profitable long-term even if individual bets lose sometimes. Finding +EV bets is the entire point of sports betting—you want to consistently make bets where your actual probability assessment exceeds the implied probability in the odds.

Pound-for-Pound (P4P) - A hypothetical ranking of the best fighters regardless of weight class. P4P rankings are mostly narrative-driven and create public betting bias because casual bettors overvalue fighters on P4P lists, often inflating their odds beyond their actual chances.

Power Puncher - A fighter with legitimate one-punch knockout ability who can end fights instantly with a single clean shot. Power punchers are dangerous until their cardio fails or they get taken down, making timing and game plan crucial for betting their fights.

Prelim Parlay - A multi-leg parlay focusing exclusively on undercard fights before the main card. Prelim parlays are popular among bettors looking for entertainment value, but they're incredibly difficult to hit because prelim fights are often more unpredictable than main card matchups.

Prelims - The undercard fights that occur before the main card, typically featuring lower-profile fighters and prospects. Prelim betting can offer softer lines and more value because books don't invest as much effort in setting sharp prelim odds compared to main card fights.

Press Conference - Media events where fighters face off and answer questions before fight week. Press conferences can reveal valuable information about fighter mindset, animosity, confidence levels, and physical condition that sharp bettors use to identify edges.

Pressure Fighter - A fighter who constantly moves forward, cuts off the cage, and forces opponents to fight while backing up. Pressure fighters create uncomfortable situations for counter-strikers and can overwhelm opponents with volume and aggression.

Price - Another term for the odds on a specific bet. "What's the price on the underdog?" is asking what odds are available on the less-favored fighter.

Prop Bet - A proposition bet on specific outcomes beyond just who wins the fight. Common UFC props include "Fight ends in Round 2," "Fighter lands 100+ significant strikes," "Will there be a knockdown," and dozens of other micro-markets that can offer better value than straight moneylines.

Prospect - A young, unproven fighter with high potential but limited UFC experience. Prospects are often overvalued because casual bettors get excited about highlight-reel knockouts against regional competition, creating fade opportunities when they face legit UFC-level opposition.

Public Betting - How casual, recreational bettors are wagering their money, typically on favorites, hype trains, and main event fighters. Understanding public betting patterns helps identify situations where the market is inefficiently priced due to unsophisticated money inflating one side.

Public Money - The total dollar amount from casual bettors flowing onto one side of a bet. Heavy public money on favorites creates line movement and inflates odds, often making the underdog a value bet because the line has moved beyond what the fight probabilities justify.

Pull - When a sportsbook removes a fight from their betting menu. See "Off the Board."

Puncher's Chance - The concept that even massively outmatched fighters can win with one lucky punch due to the nature of combat sports. Puncher's chance is why even -1000 favorites aren't completely safe bets and why betting heavy chalk is so risky.

Push - When a bet ties exactly on the number and your stake is refunded with no profit or loss. Pushes are extremely rare in UFC because round totals almost always include a .5 hook, but they can occur on exact round props or unusual bet types.

Q

Qualifier - A fighter who earned their UFC contract through Dana White's Contender Series, The Ultimate Fighter, or other qualification paths. Qualifiers are often undervalued in their first 1-2 UFC fights because the market hasn't fully assessed their talent level yet.

Quarter - Betting slang for a $25 wager, though this term is rarely used in UFC betting where minimum bets are typically higher.

Questionable (Q) - An injury designation indicating a fighter's status for the bout is uncertain. Questionable fighters create betting uncertainty and line volatility, and sharp bettors monitor injury reports closely for line value before the market fully adjusts.

R

Rankings - UFC's official divisional rankings decided by media members. Rankings are heavily political and promotional-driven, making them nearly worthless for betting purposes because they don't accurately reflect actual skill levels or fight probabilities.

Range Management - Controlling the distance between fighters to maximize your own effectiveness while minimizing the opponent's. Elite range management allows strikers to land while staying out of danger.

Red Flag - Warning signs that indicate a fighter might be compromised or overvalued. Common red flags include bad weight cuts, excessive layoffs, age-related decline, recent surgery, and training camp issues.

Reach - A fighter's arm span measured fingertip to fingertip. Significant reach advantages (3+ inches) allow fighters to control distance, land first, and avoid return fire, creating measurable betting edges especially in striking-heavy matchups.

Rear Naked Choke (RNC) - The most common submission in UFC history, applied from back control by wrapping one arm around the opponent's neck and using the other arm to apply pressure. RNCs end fights instantly when properly applied and are the highest-percentage finish for grapplers.

Rebound - How a fighter responds to a loss, whether they come back strong or spiral into decline. Some fighters are excellent rebound bets who bounce back with vengeance, while others mentally crumble and become serial losers after their first defeat.

Reduced Juice - When a sportsbook offers better than standard -110 odds, typically -105 or -107. Reduced juice books save serious money long-term—the difference between -110 and -105 is substantial over hundreds of bets, potentially meaning thousands of dollars saved.

Referee (Ref) - The official inside the cage who controls the fight, enforces rules, and decides when to stop the action. Different referees have drastically different tendencies—some stop fights early, others let them continue, some favor wrestlers, some favor strikers—and understanding ref assignments affects betting strategy.

Regression to the Mean - The statistical principle that extreme performances tend to normalize over time. A fighter who gets a miracle knockout in Round 1 will likely not repeat that performance, and expecting them to regress toward their career averages is smart handicapping.

Rematch - A second fight between opponents who've fought before. Analyzing the first fight is crucial, but smart bettors focus on what adjustments each fighter made and whether the original outcome was stylistic dominance or a fluke result.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM) - When the betting line moves opposite to where the majority of bets are being placed. For example, if 70% of bets are on Fighter A but the line moves toward Fighter B, that's RLM indicating sharp money is hammering Fighter B despite being the minority of bets.

Ring Rust - The theoretical decline in performance from long layoffs between fights. Ring rust is real but overblown—its impact varies massively by fighter, with some coming back sharper than ever while others look completely shot after time away.

Risk - The amount you're wagering on a bet, particularly important when betting favorites. If you bet $200 to win $100 on a -200 favorite, you're risking $200 for a $100 return.

Risk-Free Bet - A sportsbook promotion that refunds your stake if your first bet loses, typically in the form of site credit rather than cash. These promos have value but always read the terms carefully because "risk-free" usually comes with restrictions.

Risk of Ruin - The mathematical probability of losing your entire bankroll. Proper unit sizing and bankroll management keeps risk of ruin near zero, protecting you from inevitable losing streaks that would otherwise wipe you out.

Round Betting - Wagering on which specific round a fight ends. Round betting offers massive payouts because you're predicting not just the winner but the exact round, making it high-risk, high-reward betting that requires excellent fight reads.

Round Robin - A betting structure that creates multiple smaller parlays from a larger group of picks, hedging your parlay risk. If you have four picks, a round robin creates six two-team parlays, four three-team parlays, and one four-team parlay from those selections.

Run It Up - Aggressively growing your bankroll through a series of successful bets, particularly parlays or long shots that hit. Also describes getting lucky on a single massive parlay that multiplies your money exponentially.

Runner - Someone who places bets on behalf of others, often to circumvent betting limits or avoid detection as a sharp bettor. Using runners is technically against most sportsbooks' terms of service and can get accounts banned.

S

Same-Game Parlay (SGP) - A parlay where all selections come from the same individual fight. SGPs like "Fighter A wins + Fight goes Under 2.5 rounds + Fighter A by KO" offer correlated outcomes that make sense together, though books adjust odds to account for correlation.

Sambo - A Russian martial art combining judo throws with wrestling and ground control. Sambo fighters like Khabib and Fedor bring elite takedowns, trips, and crushing top control that's extremely difficult for strikers to defend.

Sample Size - The number of fights or data points in your analysis. Small sample sizes (2-3 fights) are unreliable and lead to false conclusions. You need 5+ fights minimum to identify legitimate patterns versus statistical noise.

Scaling - Increasing your bet sizes proportionally as your bankroll grows. Scaling allows you to maximize profits during winning periods while protecting your bankroll during downswings by betting smaller amounts.

Scorecards - The official judges' scoring for each round and the overall fight. Understanding how judges score and predicting scorecard outcomes creates edges on decision props and helps with live betting.

Scouts - Dedicated bettors who watch every fight, every fighter, and every prospect to find edges before the market adjusts. Scouts identify rising talent, declining veterans, and stylistic mismatches that casual bettors and even some books miss.

Scramble - Chaotic grappling exchanges with rapid position changes where both fighters are fighting for dominant positions. High-IQ grapplers dominate scrambles and can turn defensive positions into offensive opportunities instantly.

Sharp - A professional or highly successful bettor with a proven long-term track record of profitability. Sharp bettors use superior analysis, better information, and disciplined bankroll management to consistently beat the market.

Sharp Action - Money coming from professional bettors and respected betting syndicates. Sharp action causes line movement and reverse line movement, and following sharp money is a viable betting strategy for those who can identify it.

Shark - Another term for a sharp bettor, someone who consistently profits from betting and preys on weaker competition (recreational bettors).

Significant Strikes - Strikes that generate impact tracked by UFC's official statistics. Significant strikes exclude weak strikes and jabs that don't land cleanly, focusing on the strikes that judges actually score.

Southpaw - A left-handed fighter who stands with the right foot forward and right hand leading. Only about 10% of fighters are southpaw, making southpaw vs. orthodox matchups strategically different due to the awkward angles and unfamiliar looks.

Split Decision - A decision where two judges score for one fighter and one judge scores for the opponent, with the majority determining the winner. Split decisions indicate extremely close fights where either fighter could legitimately have won.

Sportsbook - The company or platform where you place bets. Legal US sportsbooks include DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and others, each with slightly different odds, limits, and features.

Spread - A point handicap used to even out betting between mismatched opponents, though spreads are rare in UFC. When they exist, they're typically round spreads where you're betting whether a fight goes over or under a certain number of rounds.

Square - A casual, recreational bettor who loses money long-term due to poor strategy, emotional betting, and systematic biases. Squares are the opposite of sharps and their predictable behavior creates the betting opportunities that sharps exploit.

Stake - The amount of money you're risking on a specific bet, your wager amount.

Stand-Up - When the referee stops the ground action and forces both fighters to stand up. Stand-ups help strikers and hurt grapplers, often happening when judges or refs perceive stalling on the ground even if the top fighter is working.

Steam - Sudden, massive line movement caused by large amounts of sharp money hitting multiple sportsbooks simultaneously. Following steam moves can be profitable, but you need to be fast because the line adjusts within seconds.

Straight Bet - A single wager on one outcome, not a parlay or teaser. Straight bets are the foundation of professional sports betting because they're easier to find value on compared to the increased juice in parlays.

Strap - Slang for the championship belt. "Fighting for the strap" means competing in a title fight.

Striking Accuracy - The percentage of strikes a fighter throws that actually land cleanly. High striking accuracy indicates precision, efficiency, and technique rather than just wild volume.

Striking Defense - The percentage of opponent's strikes that a fighter successfully avoids or blocks. Elite striking defense (80%+) makes fighters extremely difficult to finish and more likely to survive into championship rounds.

Style Clash - When two fighters' approaches create unpredictable or unusual dynamics. Style clashes often produce betting value because the market struggles to price matchups that don't fit standard patterns.

Submission - A fight-ending grappling technique that forces the opponent to tap out (surrender) due to a choke or joint lock. Common submissions include rear naked chokes, guillotines, armbars, and triangle chokes.

Submission Artist - A fighter who wins primarily through submissions rather than strikes or decisions. Submission artists create value on method of victory props and can turn fights around instantly from losing positions.

Sucker Bet - A trap line designed to attract uninformed public money. Sucker bets look appealing but are actually terrible value, typically involving inflated favorites or correlation-adjusted parlays with terrible odds.

Sweating - Nervously watching your bet play out in real-time. "I'm sweating this Round 3 KO prop" means you're anxiously watching the fight hoping for your specific outcome to hit.

Sweep - Winning every single bet you placed on a fight card. Sweeps are rare and beautiful, representing perfect handicapping across all your plays on a single event.

T

Tailing - Following and copying someone else's betting picks without understanding the reasoning. Tailing can be useful for learning, but you need to understand why bets are being made to develop your own handicapping skills.

Takedown - Bringing your opponent from standing to the ground. Wrestlers excel at takedowns and use them to neutralize strikers, control position, and score points with judges even without landing significant damage.

Takedown Accuracy - The percentage of takedown attempts that successfully bring the opponent to the ground. High takedown accuracy (50%+) indicates elite wrestling ability and the capacity to dictate where fights take place.

Takedown Defense (TDD) - The percentage of opponent's takedown attempts that a fighter successfully stuffs or defends. Elite takedown defense (80%+) allows strikers to keep fights standing and nullify wrestlers' entire game plans.

Tale of the Tape - The pre-fight comparison graphic showing height, reach, age, record, and other physical statistics. It's a starting point for analysis but doesn't tell the full story of how styles match up.

Tap Out - Submitting to a submission attempt by physically tapping the mat, the opponent's body, or verbally surrendering. Tapping immediately ends the fight.

Tape Study - Systematically watching and analyzing fight footage to identify patterns, tendencies, weaknesses, and stylistic matchup dynamics. Effective tape study is labor-intensive but creates massive edges that pure statistical analysis misses.

Technical Decision (TD) - A rare outcome when a fight is stopped due to an accidental foul after the halfway point of a scheduled bout. The fight goes to the scorecards based on completed rounds, and the fighter ahead on points wins by technical decision.

Technical Knockout (TKO) - When the referee stops the fight due to strikes because the fighter can no longer intelligently defend themselves, even though they're not unconscious. TKOs are the most common finish method in UFC.

Technical Submission - When a referee stops a fight due to a submission because the fighter is unconscious or injured from the submission but didn't physically tap. It still counts as a submission finish for betting purposes.

Teaser - A bet type that allows you to adjust the line in your favor at the cost of reduced payout. Teasers are rare in UFC betting but common in football, allowing you to move round totals or spreads.

Ten-Point Must System - The scoring system where the round winner receives 10 points and the loser receives 9 or fewer (8 for dominant rounds, 7 for near-finish dominance). Understanding this system is crucial for predicting decision outcomes.

The Distance - Whether a fight goes the full scheduled rounds. "Will the fight go the distance?" is one of the most popular props, essentially betting on decision vs. finish.

The Tomato - A nickname for UFC president Dana White, who famously turns bright red when angry or emotional. His public statements and matchmaking decisions can affect betting lines.

Throwing in the Towel - When a fighter's corner physically throws a towel into the cage to stop the fight between rounds. This counts as a TKO loss for the fighter whose corner stopped it.

Ticker - The public betting percentages showing what percentage of bets are on each side. "The ticker shows 75% on the favorite" indicates heavy public money on one side, often creating reverse line movement opportunities.

Tilt - See "On Tilt." Emotional, irrational betting after losses.

Time Decay - How the value and odds of futures bets change as the event approaches. Time decay creates hedging opportunities if your futures bet gains value over time.

Title Fight - A championship bout that's always scheduled for five rounds instead of three. Title fights have completely different dynamics due to cardio requirements, pacing, and the psychological pressure of fighting for a belt.

Toe-to-Toe - A stand-and-bang war where both fighters trade strikes in the pocket without much defense or movement. Toe-to-toe fights are exciting for fans but unpredictable for betting because either fighter can land the kill shot.

Total - The Over/Under bet on how many rounds the fight will last. Common totals are 1.5, 2.5, and 4.5 rounds, with the .5 preventing pushes.

Trap Game - A heavily bet favorite that sharp bettors are fading because the line is inflated beyond its true value. Trap games sucker in public money while sharps bet the other side.

Triangle Choke - A submission from guard where the fighter uses their legs to trap the opponent's head and one arm, cutting off blood flow. It's a high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu technique common in UFC finishes.

Trilogy - The third fight between the same two opponents. Trilogy fights often have different dynamics than the first two because both fighters have extensive knowledge of each other and historical data becomes less predictive.

True Odds - The actual probability of an outcome occurring, stripped of the bookmaker's juice. Finding bets where your calculated true odds differ significantly from the book's implied odds is how you identify value.

Turning Point - The specific moment in a fight when momentum shifts dramatically, usually after a knockdown, successful takedown, or momentum-changing exchange. Recognizing turning points creates live betting edges.

U

Unanimous Decision (UD) - When all three judges score the fight for the same fighter, indicating a clear and undisputed decision victory. Unanimous decisions represent the cleanest decision wins with no controversy, though the actual rounds can still be extremely close.

Under - Betting that the fight ends faster than the posted total. Under 2.5 rounds means the fight must end in Round 1 or Round 2 via finish (KO, TKO, or submission). Under bets win when fights end early.

Undercard - The early preliminary fights before the main card begins, also called prelims or early prelims. Undercard fights feature prospects, debuting fighters, and lower-profile matchups that often have softer betting lines.

Underdog - The fighter expected to lose based on the odds, indicated by plus odds (+150, +200, +300, etc.). Underdogs are where the real value exists in UFC betting because the public systematically overvalues favorites, creating mispriced opportunities on the dog side.

Undervalued - A fighter or outcome whose odds don't accurately reflect their true win probability, offering betting value. Finding systematically undervalued fighters through superior analysis is the core of profitable long-term betting.

Unified Rules - The standard MMA ruleset adopted by most major promotions including the UFC, governing legal techniques, scoring criteria, fouls, and fight procedures. Understanding the unified rules helps predict how fights will be scored and officiated.

Unit - A standardized bet size representing 1% of your total bankroll used to maintain consistency across all wagers. "I'm putting 2 units on this dog" means betting 2% of your bankroll. Using units instead of dollar amounts creates scalable, disciplined betting regardless of bankroll size.

Unit ROI - Return on investment calculated per unit wagered rather than total dollars, making it the most accurate measure of betting skill. A bettor who turns 100 units into 115 units has a 15% ROI regardless of whether each unit was $10 or $1,000.

Upset - When the underdog wins the fight, defying the odds and public expectations. The bigger the plus odds, the bigger the upset, with massive upsets creating six-figure payouts for bettors who identified the value correctly.

Upside - The maximum potential profit from a bet, particularly relevant for underdogs and parlays. High upside bets risk little to win a lot, creating asymmetric betting opportunities where you can be wrong often but still profit when you're right.

USADA - The United States Anti-Doping Agency that previously handled UFC drug testing until 2024. USADA caught numerous steroid users and performance enhancers, but UFC switched to a less strict testing program, potentially affecting fighter performance and betting considerations.

V

Value - When the odds offered are better than the true probability of the outcome occurring, creating a positive expected value betting opportunity. Finding value is literally the entire game of sports betting—you win long-term by consistently betting when your probability assessment exceeds the implied probability in the odds.

Value Bet - A specific wager where you believe the odds give you a mathematical edge over the true probability. Value bets are the foundation of professional betting, prioritizing long-term expected value over short-term results or entertainment.

Variance - The natural statistical ups and downs in results despite making theoretically correct bets. UFC has extremely high variance due to the nature of combat sports—knockout power, submissions, and judging subjectivity create outcomes that diverge from expected results more than other sports.

Venue - The location where the fight takes place, which can significantly impact performance. Altitude venues like Denver, Salt Lake City, and Mexico City drain cardio faster, while international venues create jet lag and travel fatigue issues that affect betting outcomes.

Veteran - An experienced fighter with 15+ professional fights and years in the sport. Veterans bring experience and fight IQ but also face age-related decline, making them tricky betting propositions that require case-by-case analysis.

Vig/Vigorish - The bookmaker's commission built into the odds, also called juice. Standard vig is -110 on both sides (roughly 4.5% edge for the book). Minimizing vig by line shopping and finding reduced juice books significantly improves long-term profitability.

Volume Striker - A fighter who throws massive numbers of strikes but lacks knockout power. Volume strikers win decisions through accumulated points and output rather than damage, making them excellent over bets on round totals since they rarely finish fights.

W

Wager - Your bet, the amount of money you're risking on a specific outcome.

War - A back-and-forth slugfest where both fighters take and deal massive damage, trading strikes with minimal defense. Wars are incredible to watch but extremely difficult to handicap because either fighter can land the fight-ending shot at any moment.

Weigh-In - The official weight check that occurs 24-36 hours before the fight where fighters must make their contracted weight limit. Weigh-ins reveal critical information about bad weight cuts, fighter condition, and physical state that sharp bettors use to identify edges before the market fully adjusts.

Weight Bully - A fighter who cuts massive amounts of weight to fight smaller opponents in lower divisions. Weight bullies have size and strength advantages but often suffer compromised cardio and chin durability from brutal weight cuts.

Weight Class - The divisional weight limit that fighters must meet. UFC has eight men's divisions and four women's divisions, each with distinct characteristics, finish rates, and betting dynamics that require different analytical approaches.

Weight Cut - The process of rapidly losing water weight before weigh-ins through dehydration, sauna sessions, and extreme dieting. Bad weight cuts devastate cardio, chin durability, and recovery ability, creating massive betting opportunities when identified early.

Welterweight - The 170-pound division, widely considered UFC's deepest and most competitive weight class. Welterweight features elite wrestlers, strikers, and well-rounded fighters, making it one of the most difficult divisions to handicap profitably.

Whiff - Completely missing a strike by a wide margin. Whiffing indicates fatigue, poor timing, or deteriorating technique, and fighters who start whiffing badly mid-fight are often close to being finished.

Win Rate - The percentage of your bets that win. Win rate alone is meaningless without context—60% at -110 is profitable, but 60% on heavy favorites (-300+) loses money. Win rate must be evaluated relative to the average odds you're betting.

Win Streak - When a fighter has won multiple consecutive fights. Markets often overvalue recent win streaks without considering the quality of competition, creating fade opportunities when streak fighters face significant step-ups in class.

Wisdom of the Crowd - The theory that collective public opinion produces accurate predictions. This is mostly wrong in UFC betting—the crowd is systematically biased toward favorites, hype trains, and recent results, creating exploitable inefficiencies.

Withdraw - When a fighter pulls out of a scheduled bout due to injury, illness, or other reasons. Withdrawals create immediate odds shifts and often result in late replacement fighters entering the matchup.

Wrestling - The art of takedowns, control, and ground positioning. Wrestling is the most dominant base in modern MMA because elite wrestlers can neutralize strikers, control where fights take place, and win rounds through positional dominance even without landing significant damage.

Wrestling-Heavy - A fight characterized by extensive grappling, takedowns, and ground control with minimal striking exchanges. Wrestling-heavy fights typically last longer and go to decision, making them good over bets on round totals.

X

X-Factor - An unpredictable element that could dramatically swing the fight outcome. X-factors include unproven knockout power, cardio in a new weight class, recovery from specific injuries, training camp changes, or psychological factors that are difficult to quantify but could determine the winner.

Y

Yard - Betting slang for a $100 wager. "I put a yard on the dog" means you bet $100 on the underdog. It's modest money for recreational bettors but can be significant volume for sharp bettors placing dozens of yard bets per card.

Yield - Return on investment (ROI) expressed as a percentage of total money wagered. A bettor who wagered $10,000 total and is up $1,000 has a 10% yield. Yield is the most important long-term metric for measuring betting success.

Z

Zebra - Slang for the referee, derived from striped shirts worn by officials in other sports (though UFC refs wear black). Different zebras have vastly different tendencies regarding stoppages, stand-ups, and point deductions that affect betting outcomes.

Zone - When a fighter enters perfect flow state where everything is working—timing is perfect, reads are accurate, and techniques land effortlessly. Fighters in the zone are extremely dangerous and difficult to bet against, though predicting when someone will enter the zone is nearly impossible.

NUMERIC TERMS

10-7 Round - An extremely rare scoring outcome where the round winner receives 10 points and the loser receives only 7, indicating total domination with near-finish damage. 10-7 rounds require multiple knockdowns, sustained ground-and-pound brutality, or completely one-sided beatings that somehow don't get stopped.

10-8 Round - A dominant round where the winner receives 10 points and the loser receives 8 instead of the standard 10-9. 10-8 rounds require clear knockdowns, extreme positional dominance, or sustained one-sided damage that approaches a finish but doesn't quite get there.

10-9 Round - The standard scoring for a round where one fighter wins but it's competitive. The winner gets 10 points, the loser gets 9 points. Most UFC rounds are scored 10-9 unless there's a knockdown or complete domination warranting a 10-8.

12-6 Elbow - An illegal downward elbow strike named after the motion from 12 o'clock to 6 o'clock on a clock face. Jon Jones' only "loss" came via 12-6 elbow disqualification, and the rule remains controversial because it's poorly defined and inconsistently enforced.

3-Round Fight - The standard UFC bout duration for non-main events and non-title fights. Three-round fights have completely different strategic, cardio, and betting dynamics compared to five-round main events because fighters can go harder without worrying about championship rounds.

5-Round Fight - Main events and title fights that last five rounds instead of three, requiring elite championship-level cardio and pacing. Five-round fights fundamentally change betting strategy because rounds 4 and 5 separate fighters with true championship conditioning from everyone else.

80/20 Rule - The conventional wisdom that 80% of MMA is wrestling and grappling while only 20% is striking. While oversimplified, it explains why elite wrestlers tend to dominate mixed martial arts and why takedown defense is perhaps the single most important skill for strikers.

‍